Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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012 FXUS63 KJKL 311053 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 653 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 639 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front remains draped across central Indiana and northern Ohio as of 6am this morning. This has resulted in mostly cloudy conditions across these states, though little in the way of precip is ongoing at this time. Still expecting that as we head into the day, the cold front will slowly drop southward and interact with daytime heating to produce some more widespread cloud cover and precip chances, especially across the northern portion of the CWA. As for now, forecast seems to be in pretty good shape with valley fog and only a few passing cirrus clouds. Otherwise conditions are calm. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds was in line with current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. No changes to the forecast package are needed at this time, however one will be needed to remove fog wording later in the morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 351 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Conditions remain calm and clear as of 3am, with high pressure still in general control of eastern KY. A weak cold front is currently slowly pushing southeast across central IN and north central OH. Most of the convection along this frontal boundary has deteriorated with loss of daytime heating, though a swath of clouds remains just northeast of the CWA. This frontal boundary will slowly push farther south throughout the day, reaching the Ohio River by 21Z. This will allow some clouds to make it into the region, mainly across the northwest half. Afternoon heating may also spark some more showers and thunderstorms, but most scattered activity will remain north of I-64 closer to the best lift along the frontal boundary. The cold front will continue on its slow southward path across the state tonight and into Thursday morning. This will keep isolated to scattered chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast overnight and into the morning tomorrow, with chances lingering in the higher terrain throughout the day due to upslope flow and closer proximity to the exiting system. Overall, there is a lack of moisture with this system, so QPF amounts will be unimpressive. Winds will actually become more NWrly today ahead of the frontal passage, and will remain northerly after its passage as well. This will work to pull in much cooler air into the region, especially post frontal when the pull of northerly air will be deeper. While temperatures today will remain in the upper 80s to around 90, post- frontal temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper 70s to around 80. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 450 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 The models remain in good agreement aloft through the long term portion of the forecast. They all depict a dampening trough moving through the northeast section of the nation Friday into Saturday. There are some differences with the handling of T.D. 9 progged to come out of the Southeast United States and back into the Atlantic early Saturday, but it should have little impact on the weather over Kentucky. Some weak energy will be left behind over the region Saturday as mid level ridging builds back over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The energy, and somewhat lower heights, will slip off to the southeast Sunday while the heights increase over our area. The ridge takes hold over Kentucky to start the new work week, peaking toward the end of the forecast period over the Deep South. Given the good model agreement, a blended solutions looks to be a good starting point for the extended portion of the forecast. Sensible weather will feature a pleasant couple of days heading into the Labor Day weekend as dry and cool high pressure brings a welcomed change of air mass to the area. However, this high does move off to the east by Monday allowing warmer and increasingly humid air to return to Kentucky. Even so, the building heat and moisture will likely not be enough to trigger any convection through rest of the forecast. Accordingly, the forecast was kept dry with late summer heat and humidity spreading back into the region for the latter part of the Labor Day weekend and into the middle of next week. Did make some minor adjustments to the temperatures each night to account for ridge and valley differences. Also fine tuned the Sky grids to build in more of a diurnal curve to the coverage during the late afternoon hours. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front remains draped across central Indiana and northern Ohio as of 6am this morning. This has resulted in mostly cloudy conditions across these states, though little in the way of precip is ongoing at this time. Still expecting that as we head into the day, the cold front will slowly drop southward toward the Ohio River and interact with daytime heating to produce some more widespread cloud cover and isolated to scattered precip chances, especially across the northern portion of the CWA, though conditions should remain VFR. Went ahead and left in VCTS for late this afternoon and into the overnight to account for any thunderstorm activity, though more than likely it will be more isolated in nature at most sites. Cigs may lower to MVFR late in the period as the actual front nears. Winds should remain light, generally less than 5kts.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW

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