Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 031458 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1058 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1058 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HAVE ADDED THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT MUCH OF HARLAN COUNTY IS ALREADY SEEING CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. WHILE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NE...JKL VWP FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 3K MSL. WE ARE SEEING SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR SE...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP WITH BREAKING UP THE SHALLOW CLOUDINESS OVER AT LEAST THE SE PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1800 TO 1900 THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. YESTERDAY THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SUNSHINE OCCURRED. SO BASED ON CURRENT LOCAL ANALYSIS HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO FORECAST. SPC ALSO HAS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS INCLUDING ZFP AND HWO. UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS MUCH OF KY...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE NOW GONE DOWN TO BELOW 1/4 MILE IN SJS AND PIKEVILLE. EXPECT THE FOG TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE FAR EAST TO BE BACK TO A MILE OR ABOVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECTED THESE ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY... TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN. THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT 7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWING THIS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FEATURED WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY COUPLE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WILL EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. BY SUNDAY A MENTION STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WELL AND WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WITH WARM SOUTHERN AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. DESPITE THIS CLOUD DECK...FOG STILL DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW CIGS AND FOG HAS CAUSED KSJS AND KJKL TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND...LIFTING TO MVFR. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN TAF SITES...LIKE KJKL AND KSJS. WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CAUSE LITTLE IMPACTS. THEN...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING...AND ANOTHER SCENARIO OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT IMPACTS THESE TWO WILL HAVE HAS BEEN POORLY DEFINED IN THE MODELS...SO JUST WENT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT SET UP /WHERE RAIN OCCURRED...AFTERNOON DEW POINTS...ETC/. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW

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