Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230228 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1028 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING. THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN CONTINUE TO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 A PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE TEXT FORECAST PRODUCT WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES MADE THERE AT ALL. THE LATEST OBS DATA WAS INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS... WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. STRATOCU IS THINNING QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SUBSIDENCE AND EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT TOTALLY BY DUSK. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONGLOMERATES MORE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT... ALLOWING FOR MORE CALM WINDS...RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE NEAR IDEAL. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH SOME DENSE FOG SCRUNCHED DOWN IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A SUNNY DAY ONCE THE VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF. HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REIGN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...WHILE THE RIDGES STAY UP A BIT MORE...GENERALLY AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE REGION...WITH WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PULLING DRY AND COOL AIR IN FROM CANADA. THE LOSS OF NRLY WIND FLOW AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE MAY STRENGTHEN HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND MILD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY TO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SOME KIND OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ITS POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES MAY GET PUSHED BACK EVEN FURTHER. REGARDLESS...ANY SYSTEM THAT TRACKS NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP US IN SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW...SO INITIALLY THERE IS GOING TO BE LOTS OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PRIOR TO ANY PRECIPITATION. THUS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME LIFR OR WORSE FOG FORMING IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A TOUCH OF RESIDUAL FOG AT SME AND LOZ...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT IT WILL BE WORSE THAN THAT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE AND ENE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...AR

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