Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290649 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 249 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 242 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017 An outflow boundary is sagging into the northern part of the CWA while a weak cold front is sagging south of the OH River. Isolated to scattered showers are occurring mainly in the far north near this outflow boundary. Pops over the next few hours were adjusted for this outflow and cold front moving across the area considering the limited instability. Some scattered pops were used over the northeast and east for this with isolated pops elsewhere. Coverage of thunder should be rather limited, but opted to carry isolated chances for thunder as well. Otherwise, hourly temperatures and dewpoints were freshened up based on recent observations with no other changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 1114 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 Current conditions across the area feature waning if not completely tapped instability as just some isolated showers remain. Assistance from the approaching front appears to be only be enough for a few showers so updated to remove thunder from the forecast for the night and lowered pops to slight chance for the night. Also input the latest observations and trended them for the next few hours. Also added patchy to areas of fog to the forecast, especially in the west where there will be better clearing current satellite shows some eroding in central KY. A new zfp has been sent out for this update. UPDATE Issued at 742 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 Updated the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them into the evening hours. Ahead of the front in eastern Kentucky, instability is on the wane as id evidence in the latest returns and have gone with isolated showers through the early evening hours. Hi res models do show the possibility of a few thunderstorms popping with the aided forcing from the front moving across I-75 at around 02Z and so have left a slight to low chance of thunder as that crosses the area. This should dissipate as well as it crosses the area with any chance of thunder ending by 06Z. A new zfp has been sent to address this.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 352 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 The latest surface map features a cold front aligned from northern Indiana down across southeast Missouri, with another surface boundary moving across the northern Plains. Aloft, an upper level low continues to spiral across southern Manitoba, with cyclonic flow established across the northern Plains and Great Lakes regions. Eastern Kentucky has been enjoying a much quieter day, as plenty of clouds have kept temperatures down, with only a few low-topped showers having popped up in the last hour or so. This suppressed activity should continue through early this evening, before temporarily diminishing, before the cold front drops southeast across the area later tonight into early Monday morning. Have allowed for an uptick in POPs, with a few thunderstorms possible, although could see the thunder not happening at all, given the more limited instability in place. Lows will range from around 60 north of I-64, to the mid 60s near the TN/KY border. Shower activity will dry up through dawn, as the cold front exits off to the southeast. Monday will feature a drier and milder day, with temperatures peaking near the 80 degree mark. Dry weather should hold on into Monday night, as we await the next cold front approaching from the northwest. Lows will range from 55 to 60. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 352 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 Unsettled period expected through the extended. An upper level trough will be rotating across Ontario during the day Tuesday, where it will remain in place through Thursday, before slowly shifting eastward Friday and Saturday, the exiting off the Atlantic Coastline Saturday night. As a result, expect longwave troughing across the Ohio Valley through much of the period. A strong shortwave will move across the Central Plains Friday, reaching the mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday, then weakening as it shifts eastward into our region Saturday night into Sunday. Several surface frontal features are expected to impact the state during the extended as well, including a developing cold front which will traverse eastward through the CWA during the day Tuesday, in conjunction with the longwave troughing pattern aloft, a surface boundary that will develop to our west Wednesday, and another cold front which will stall out across Kentucky Saturday into Saturday. These will translate to scattered precip throughout much of the period, with best instability and thunder development expected during peak heating in the afternoon/evening, and along any frontal boundaries (Friday afternoon through Saturday). Temperatures will generally be pretty close to seasonable normals during the period. Expect upper 70s to just above 80 degrees for highs. Overnight lows will show a bit more variability based on if there is cloud cover around and wind flow. Tuesday night and Wednesday night are both fairly clear with generally 50s expected (can`t rule out some ridge/valley differences as well), however Thursday night will be warmer in the low 60s thanks to increasing cloud cover and southerly flow. Low 60s can be expected through the remainder of the forecast period as cloud cover and southerly flow remains in place. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017 VFR is observed at this time and VFR should continue for at least the first 2 or 3 hours of the period even with an isolated to shra or tsra possibly impacting one of the TAF sites. As the cold front moves through overnight, some stratocu or stratus may develop along with some fog, and a period of MVFR is possible generally between 7Z and 13Z. This should mix out shortly after sunrise with VFR developing areawide and prevailing through the end of the period. VFR conditions will then be expected into the day tomorrow. Winds should generally remain at 10KT or less through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...JP

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