Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 040023 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD... ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A WINDOWN OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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