Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 242025 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND AN EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH WENT TOTALLY DRY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR NOW. FROM THERE OUR WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS. INHERITED SOME EXCELLENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS. NUDGING TO A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDED VERY MINOR CHANGES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE...RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/27 ARE 83 AT JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/28 ARE 78 AT JACKSON AND 84 AT LONDON. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. A SHEARED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS KY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED AND WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTRODUCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW COMING INTO LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THIS IDEA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE COULD EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE OPTIMISTIC WITH RESPECT FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AT OUR TERMINALS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO RIGHT AT DAWN...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TENDENCY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND FOR GOOD MEASURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8KTS AND BECOME WESTERLY JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...RAY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.