Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 141702 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1202 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 DID AN UPDATE TO REFRESH THE HOURLY TEMPS AND TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMER TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED SNOW AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE IMPRESSIVE 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES SEEN IN PAH MIGHT NOT HOLD UP INTO JKL BUT STILL SUSPECT THAT THOSE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS EVENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW FALLING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH HELPING TO GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO POSSIBLE SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SO SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE THE FORECAST BUT DID A QUICK REFRESH WITH HOURLY TEMPS. ALSO STARTED MENTIONING THE RISK OF FLOODING IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THE FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY EAST TO FORT KNOX. WILL SEE LIGHT BANDS MOVE INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF ACTIVITY ARRIVES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. AREAS FARTHER EAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE STEADIER SNOW ARRIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO ADD UP TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING MONDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL REMAIN INTACT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A CONCISE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL SEE THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A SWATH OF 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING SNOWFALL ON THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA STATE LINE AS OF 4 AM. SNOW WILL BEGIN LOCALLY FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO MONTICELLO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MOUNT STERLING TO WEST LIBERTY TO PAINTSVILLE LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS...RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE GREATEST INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CREATING A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AS THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. DEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF A BROADER TROUGH FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE SAME TRACK MONDAY WILL TRANSITION EVERYTHING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES THROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SECOND TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO LATCH ON TO A WARM NOSE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS. THIS TRANSITION WILL BEGIN NEAR MONTICELLO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW THE LONGEST WHERE THE COLD AIR RESIDES THE LONGEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGING. HEAVY RAIN COULD BEGIN TO CREATE ISSUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN AREAS WITH GREATER SNOWPACK AND FROZEN GROUND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY GOING FORWARD AFTER TODAY/TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH TRAILING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO BE WARMER AND MORE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY MODELS SUGGESTING EVENTUAL LOSS OF ICE. THE CONCERN TRANSITIONS TO HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL ADD TO THE QPF THAT FALLS MONDAY NIGHT...THIS COULD SPELL SOME SORT OF HYDRO ISSUES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS PAINT A HALF OF A INCH PLUS STRIPE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY AND RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE MODEL BLENDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED FURTHER AS WE BEGIN TO GET A HANDLE ON THE INITIAL ISENTROPIC EVENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BIT BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS REMAIN AS EITHER WE ARE TOO WARM OR LOOSE ICE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE KEPT MUCH OF THIS RAIN BEFORE MIXING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND BACK TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS EAST. MODELS DO TRY TO KEEP SOME SORT OF NW FLOW FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THAT OUT. SURFACE HIGH IS POISED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE NE/MID ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE COUPLED RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND EVEN A 588 DAM BAROTROPIC AREA SETTING UP IN THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP BRING A SURGE OF WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP THIS ALL RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER DEGRADATION TO IFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. VERY WELL MAY SEE SOME LIFR OR VLIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN MORE MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-051- 052-104. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ050-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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