Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281926 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 326 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 312 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 A shortwave trough and surface low pressure continue to depart to the north and east of the region while surface high pressure is beginning to nose into the OH Valley. Height rises are also occurring the wake of the departing shortwave trough with the axis of this ridge currently extending from the central Gulf of Mexico northwest toward the Mid Ms Valley region. Upslope flow, especially above the surface is combining with daytime heating to produce shallow light rain showers and sprinkles or drizzle. Statocu and cumulus have been rather persistent, but breaks and thin spots in the clouds have allowed many locations to experience temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s under the increasingly strong late March solar insolation. The surface low and shortwave trough will continue to depart to the east and northeast tonight while upper and surface ridging build into the OH Valley and Appalachians. Through this evening, isolated to scattered showers or light drizzle should persist, but wane this evening with loss of daytime heating and low levels stabilize. However, low level moisture is expected to remain trapped below a subsidence inversion tonight and the degree of clearing is uncertain though give the current rather extensive area of clouds currently over the Great Lakes and OH Valley at this time. This and model forecast soundings of persistent moisture at about 850 mb and below and time heights through this evening and tonight, only some partial clearing especially in the south is anticipated. Radiational valley fog is possible and a mix of this and stratus build down fog is also possible, though confidence in the details is not high. The axis of the upper level ride is expected to continue to move east and should move across the area Wednesday evening while the next in a series of upper level troughs/upper lows moves from the Southern Plains and begins to nears the MS Valley late. Meanwhile surface low pressure is expected to track from West TX to MO. Clouds should decrease on Wednesday morning, with milder temperatures compared to today. The pattern of upper level ridging beginning to depart and surface high pressure departing is favorable for some valley fog as well as at least a small to moderate ridge valley split with favorable net radiational cooling conditions for the normally colder eastern valley locations. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 326 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 It appears that an active weather pattern will be in place during the extended period, as a series of weather systems move across the CONUS. The period should begin with a warm front approaching from the south on Thursday. As this boundary makes its way north, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to fire along and just ahead of it. The thunder chances should begin early Thursday afternoon, and should come to an end by late Thursday night, after the cold front has passed by. Some rain showers are expected to linger along and just behind the cold front Friday morning. A few more thunderstorms may fire Friday afternoon, as an area of low pressure aloft moves by just to our north and we see an uptick in vertical motion and instability. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the low should allow for isolated to scattered rain showers to linger across the area into late Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to settle over the region from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday evening. This will bring warm and dry weather back to eastern Kentucky. Another area of low pressure is then progged to move across the area Sunday night through Tuesday, bring more precipitation to eastern Kentucky. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on Monday as the low moves past us. Temperatures in general should again run above normal through out the extended, with daily highs in the 60s and 70s expected. Nightly lows should be in the 40s and 50s across the area.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 MVFR to VFR sailings were reported at observation and these should continue for the first 4 to 8 hour of the period. Patchy light rain, drizzle or showers may also affect JKL and SJS early in the period. Despite high pressure building into the area, subsidence from mid and upper level ridging should help keep low level moisture and clouds in place. Bases of these low clouds should tend to lower 0Z to 6Z with lowering to IFR in some locations and to MVFR in others. Daytime heating by the 12Z to 18Z period and drier air moving in should lead to improvement through the MVFR range and into the VFR range in most locations. Some stratus build down and or radiation fog is also possible during the 0Z to 14Z period, but confidence was not high enough to include attm. Winds should generally remain light through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP

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