Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 081947 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 247 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 247 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2017 We have two weather systems we are monitoring this afternoon. The first one is pushing northeast across the southeastern states with a large plume of moisture extending across the southern Appalachians. The second system is diving southeastward across the far western great lakes. Presently, eastern Kentucky is sandwiched between these two systems, with nothing more than a bit of mid to high level cloud cover. This will change for a few folks tonight as moisture associated with the system to our south brushes the Kentucky counties bordering Virginia. RAP/HRRR have been wavering around with the northward extent of precipitation over the past 3 or 4 runs, but its looking more likely that some light snow will push into our counties bordering Virginia late this evening or overnight. RAP/HRRR/GFS all indicate about 0.05 to 0.10 inch of liquid equivalent tonight, which would support around an inch of snowfall with a snow ratio near 15:1. The highest totals will likely reside in the highest terrain, with drier air eating away at totals at lower elevations. For all other locations, expect skies to gradually clear overnight. The clearing skies and expected light winds will allow for temperatures to plummet tonight. Lows will fall well into the teens in many areas. The exception will be in the far southeast where precipitation and clouds keep temperatures in the 20s. Any snowfall will end around daybreak Saturday with a mostly sunny start expected. However, the second system will roll into eastern Kentucky from the northwest by midday or early afternoon. This will bring an increase in cloud cover and increased chances for snow showers. Low level lapse rates will steepen up quite a bit through the early evening hours, allowing for a few intense snow showers that could lay down a quick coating of snow. This is despite highs expected to reach into the mid 30s. We will likely see temperature falls within the snow showers. However, given the air temperatures near or above freezing, travel conditions should not be all that impacted. Expected liquid equivalent is only going to be a few hundredths of an inch for most, so this won`t support that much snow. Perhaps up to a half inch in favored westerly upslope regions. A few snow showers or flurries may linger into Saturday evening before coming to an end. Most of the moisture with this system will fall in the dendritic growth zone, so we could see some decent dendrites with the snow on Saturday. This could aid in some instances of reduced visibilities, impacting travel in the heavier snow showers. Temperatures Saturday night will drop back into the teens again with another strong push of cold air moving in behind the clipper system. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 247 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2017 Long term discussion to follow shortly.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2017 A disturbance riding along a stalled frontal boundary to our southeast will continue to yield mid to high clouds across eastern Kentucky, but ceilings are expected to stay VFR through midday Saturday. Winds should also remain light and variable through the period. Some convective snow showers are expected Saturday afternoon, and could bring sharp reductions in visibilities and ceilings at times. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

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