Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 091426 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1026 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 FRONT IS BISECTING THE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT. NORTH OF THE FRONT SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DEWS ARE IN THE MID 60S. THE FRONT WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER...OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LINGER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ENSURE AT LEAST A 20 POP IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY...AND TO LINGER A 20 POP FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDER AS THE FRONT SETTLES VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 750 MB NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD A BURGEONING CU FIELD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO REFLECT THE BETTER COVERAGE. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE EVERYTHING SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CREEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CREEK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING. THE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S...BUT WITH LESS HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN TO AROUND 60 BOTH AFTERNOONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH LOWS INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER AND IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO WAYNE COUNTIES. BY SATURDAY EVENING SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA...IT WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED AND WET THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY THIS TIME THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS THE COLD AIR AND THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE BLENDED TEMPERATURES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...HOWEVER DID NUDGE THE TEMPS TOWARD THE RAW ECMWF AND THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TOPOGRAPHY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION LATELY...PARTLY DUE TO THE DRY SPELL ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 12Z...ALLOWING THE TAF SITES TO RETURN TO VFR STATUS. SOME STRATOCU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ERODING LATE IN THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO OR UNDER CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...DROPPING VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO OR UNDER AIRPORT MINIMUMS. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ABE SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...KAS

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