Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 160400 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1100 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1100 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 Latest scans of the nearby WSR-88D radars continue to show most robust showers remain to out north and west this evening. However, these showers will slowly move southward and make it into northern Fleming County by around 06Z. Some of these showers could be gusty given the 850mb jet is still around 60 knots across the region. Did plan on expiring the Lake Wind Advisory given the weather stations near the site have indicated winds have remained below criteria. However, will continue to indicate some gusty winds in the HWO given the low level jet mentioned above and continued gusty winds being experienced from time to time. Otherwise made some adjustments to POP trends with short term models struggling on timing of main band. UPDATE Issued at 855 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 The latest scans of the area WSR-88D radars shows the bulk of the showers and isolated storms are well north of the CWA this hour. Given this will slow the progression of POPs, with a nudge toward the short term model blend. Also took thunder out this evening given the lack of showers across the area this hour. There will be a period of dry weather before the showers across southern IN/OH progress southeast through the night, along with a frontal boundary. We do continue to see strong southwest flow and therefore will continue to run the NPW through 11 PM. Will update the text products and send out the latest grids to NDFD. UPDATE Issued at 541 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 WSR-88D radar shows isolated rain showers mainly north of the Mountain Parkway late this afternoon. Some of the showers north of I-64 have had a history of producing lightning and therefore added some isolated thunder mainly north of I-64. Overall the trend for lightning will be down through the evening based on the mesoanalysis data. Otherwise more minor adjustments were made to deal with the latest obs and trends and updated the text products including the HWO to mention thunder.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 303 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 A cold front over the northern Ohio river valley will slowly push southward into tonight with a passage across eastern Kentucky late Friday morning through the afternoon. The gradient has tightened up to the south of this front with gusty southwest winds continuing this afternoon. While winds have decreased ever so slightly from earlier readings, still opting to continue with the lake wind advisory through the evening as wind could pick back up as the front approaches. Rain is expected to spread in from the north along the front after 05z tonight, with a few isolated or scattered showers possibility developing out ahead of this more widespread activity. The widespread rain will push on through late tonight through Friday morning before slowly exiting from the north to south Friday afternoon. Rain chances a certainty, so will maintain the high rain chances. In fact, upwards of an inch of rainfall could be seen along and north of I-64 with that area located in an area of better forcing with the shortwave energy aloft. Rainfall amounts will then trail off as the front pushes south and shortwave energy departs by Friday morning. Rainfall amounts in the south may struggle to reach a half an inch. With this said, outside of some ponding on roadways, only some minor bumps on area creeks and streams are expected, so no plans for a flood watch at this time. Temperatures will take a quick tumble Friday afternoon as cold advection kicks in behind the cold front. Friday night is shaping up to be dry as the front exits off to the south and colder air briefly returns for the overnight period. The cold advection could push our low temperatures down into the low to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 359 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 A mid level trough is expected to be moving east through the Plains at the start of the period, with a shortwave trough approaching from the west and southwest at the start of the period. Deeper moisture is expected to return back north into the area on Saturday with PW that will have decreased to about a quarter to two thirds of an inch late in the short term period, should return to the 0.75 to about one inch on Saturday afternoon. An inverted trough should also develop north into the area on Saturday as a surface low tracks across the southeast US. The shortwave trough will move through the area on Saturday evening with deeper moisture again departing. Models have a few hours of rather deep lift on Saturday and this combined with PW points toward the potential to receive up to an inch of rain that day. the model consensus is for the highest rainfall in the southern and southeastern counties where PW will be highest. Those locations are expected to have received lighter rainfall in the near term. However, this rainfall could lead to rises to near bankfull on some of the larger creeks, streams, and rivers especially if rainfall were to exceed an inch on Saturday. Mid level height rises and sfc high pressure should build in to end the weekend. However, the pattern should quickly return to west to southwest flow aloft to start the new week and generally persist through the end of the period. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough should dig from the northwest into the Rockies with and then progress east and into the Plains and then into Ontario. Downstream of this, deep moisture should again return north into the TN Valley by late Sunday as high pressure moves to the eastern seaboard with PW likely returning to over 1 inch late Sunday night and remaining close to an inch or more through the middle of the week. The greater values during much of that period, however, should be north and west of the region closer to a slow moving baroclinic zone. That baroclinic zone/front should approach the region at midweek as surface low pressure associated with the above mentioned shortwave that moves form the Plains to Ontario tracks across the Great Lakes and to Ontario and Quebec. This boundary should remain over or possibly push southeast of the area by the end of the period. The focus for the heaviest rainfall next week appears to be closer to the baroclinic zone closer the OH and MS Rivers and generally north or west of the region. This scenario will continue to be monitored as the ground is already saturated and multiple rounds of heavy rain would lead to rises on streams, rivers, and creeks. Except for behind the boundary with rain falling on Saturday, above normal to well above normal temperatures are anticipated. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 630 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 Strong southwest flow continues to keep the potential for 30 knot wind gusts tonight and this will be the primary aviation concern to start the TAF period. A cold front will begin pushing southeast tonight and bring the potential for showers overnight into early Friday. This will also lead to lowering CIGs into IFR range or lower through the night and at least MVFR VIS. This front will slowly push southeast Friday, and winds will begin to shift from southwest to northwest and begin to wane through the day on Friday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DJ

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