Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191921 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 321 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 321 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Weak surface ridging continues to build into the Ohio Valley in wake of an elongated upper trough crossing the Appalachians and moving toward the Atlantic. A flat cumulus field will slowly erode by late afternoon into this evening with the loss of daytime heating and as slightly drier air slowly advects south. Clear skies and light winds combined with overnight low temperatures reaching and likely falling below crossover temperatures will spell another night of fog across eastern Kentucky. This should not be as widespread and dense as that seen last night and this morning given the lack of any rainfall today. Visibilities may very well drop to 1/4 mile or below in deeper river valleys as temperatures cool into the upper 50s, with restrictions not as prevalent elsewhere with readings in the low- mid 60s. Fog will lift by mid Tuesday morning as high pressure is reinforced following a trailing wave riding through the Great Lakes tonight. Southern extent of today`s departing upper trough will cutoff and lift through a portion of the Appalachians, attempting to usher in some enhanced moisture across southeast Kentucky. Conditions will remain dry locally as eastern Kentucky stays on the northwestern flank of this system, in the subsiding region. Upper ridging spilling into the region from the southwest will bring warmer temperatures aloft, bumping highs into the mid 80s. A similar night will be in store Tuesday night with less fog development following another dry day. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A stubborn upper level ridge will remain the dominant influence on our weather during the long term period. A closed low will be parked to the east of the Apps at the start of the period. While this may throw back some mid and high clouds from time to time, I do not anticipate any precip to make it this far to the west. In fact, we should see plenty of sunshine with highs well up in the 80s each day through Saturday. Based on recent trends, and the fact we will be drying out again, I continued to bump up daytime highs a degree or two from the Super Blend guidance. A longwave trough will drop into New England over the weekend as an upper low closes off over the Southwest CONUS. This pinches off the upper ridge to our west and allows a backdoor cold front to drop southward across our region Saturday night or Sunday. The front should pass through dry while bringing a modified Canadian airmass featuring cooler, closer to normal, temperatures and much lower dewpoints Sunday and Monday. The Super Blend guidance offered a small PoP on Monday as the next front plunges into the scene from the west. With the dry airmass in place behind our weekend front, and timing differences shown in the modeling, decided to keep the forecast dry on Monday in general agreement with offices to my east.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 VFR conditions have returned for the most part this afternoon with lingering MVFR ceilings possibly lasting another hour or so at SJS/SYM. Skies will clear this evening with light north/northwest winds veering north/northeasterly. Fog will develop again tonight and Tuesday morning, with at least MVFR visibilities a good bet. LOZ/SME should have the best chance of seeing IFR conditions. Could very well see conditions deteriorate further, but this should not be as widespread as last night without rainfall today. Should see fog dissipate by mid morning with light north/northeast winds and clear skies prevailing for Tuesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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