Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261807 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HELPING TO CREATE NEAR IDEAL OPPORTUNITIES TO GET OUTDOORS AND EXPERIENCE PERFECT AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS WHILE AT IT TO MATCH UP WITH MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK. THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION... AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT. HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SME MAY BE THE EXCEPTION...EXPERIENCING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR MIST OR LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON. RETURN FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TO USHER IN A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-8 KTS BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...RAY

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