Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250804 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 404 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 353 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 Morning surface analysis shows an area of quasi stationary low pressure resides across SW OH as it becomes vertically stacked. A spoke of PVA and area of surface convergence will swing across the region today. This will bring periods of showers to much of the region through the day. There will be some convective element, but really start to transition to stratiform elements. Therefore, not overall impressed with the efficiency these showers will have through the day. However, FFGs remain low in parts of the far east i.e. Martin/Pike counties, but still just below one inch range for even the 1 hour. That said think this will be a longer duration rainfall than 1 hour and not confident we will see widespread issues in these areas given the longer duration rainfall. Given leaned away from issuing a FFA, but will mention the isolated issue in the HWO. This pesky upper level low will push east through the evening into tonight. This will pull the surface low pressure east and subsequently the showers will taper off from west to east through the night. Heights will be on the rise and some clearing could lead to some minor temperatures splits by Friday morning mainly in the western parts of the CWA. The previously mentioned height rises will also usher in warmer 850mb temperatures by Friday afternoon and lead to temperatures 15 to 20 degrees warmer than today. Clouds will likely be on the decrease, but some high clouds will remain particularly in the afternoon on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 404 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 Cyclonic flow will remain locked in place from the southern shores of Hudson Bay into the Tennessee Valley from this weekend well into next week, as upper ridging traverses the Gulf Coast into the western Atlantic and split flow sets up across the western U.S. Net impact for eastern Kentucky will be an unsettled pattern characterized by periods of showers and thunderstorms along with seasonable temperatures, beginning the weekend above normal and falling to near or slightly below normal by mid next week. Quasi-zonal flow Friday night will back southwesterly Saturday as an upper low migrates into Manitoba, sending several upper impulses downstream as far south as the Volunteer State. Isolated showers and storms will develop Friday evening and night, with scattered storms occurring throughout the day Saturday. These should remain rather low-topped as height falls and deep layer shear will be weak along with their primary forcing being driven aloft as an earlier day warm front should be well north of eastern Kentucky by peak heating. More widespread convection will materialize into Sunday as the upper low moves east toward the western Great Lakes and an attendant surface low slides across the upper Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes. An approaching cold front will serve as focus for thunderstorm development through the day into Monday morning. Will have to monitor progression of the boundary for flooding potential Sunday, before a damaging wind threat likely materializes later in the afternoon into the night. This widespread precipitation will knock a few degrees off of temperatures when compared with readings in the low 80s Saturday, as Sunday`s highs top out in the upper 70s. Rain chances will diminish from west to east Monday behind the front, with another round of storms possible Tuesday ahead of a secondary upper wave and front. Dry conditions should return for a portion of midweek before another round of showers looks possible thereafter on the western edge of the slowly eastward meandering upper low. This feature should keep temperatures in check with highs near the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 The rain showers have tapered off across the region this hour and this will be the case till we get closer toward dawn for most. The latest obs and trends suggest a general downward trend in the CIGs toward dawn as well and right now will go near IFR. Then went IFR for most by the 14Z to 15Z timeframe. This as NW flow and upper low provide ample stratus for the TAF period. Also another area of showers will progress across the region from NW to SE through the day beginning in the Bluegrass by around 13Z. Winds will also be on the increase through the day given decent LLJ and therefore do have 15 to 20 knot gusts mainly in the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...DJ

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