Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270013 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 813 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 813 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 A few clusters of showers and isolated thunder are shifting northeast across portions of eastern Kentucky early this evening. One of these will pivot through the I-64 in the next hour, while another one will exit into West Virginia. The latest HRRR has been showing additional activity firing up in the next 2 to 3 hours; however, with the better forcing moving off to the northeast and the loss of heating, am leaning more towards a gradual weakening trend, which has been the case upstream. Have freshened up the POP trends over the next few hours, with thunder chances ending in the next 1 to 2 hours, as the aforementioned clusters of convection exit. Have also included some patchy fog, with pockets of clearing and some locally heavy rainfall having occurred.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 The short term period will be active, with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the area through around 2Z this evening. A few of the storms this afternoon could produce hail and strong wind gusts. The thunder chances should only last through 23 or 0Z, as any remaining instability and best forcing should be gone after that. General rain showers are expected overnight, and these will taper off steadily through 6Z, and should be gone by around 9Z. After a very brief reprieve, we should see more showers moving into the area from the south and southwest between 12 and 13Z on Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible again after 17Z on Monday. There will be a good chance of thunder Monday night as well, as a strong area of low pressure aloft and a fast moving but weak cold front both move across the region. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will also be on tap, as ample moisture will continue streaming into the area from the south. Temperatures through out the period will continue to run well above normal, with nightly lows in the 50s, and highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 The period is expected to begin with a mid and upper level trough moving through the OH Valley region and into the Appalachians that shifts east during the day on Tuesday and takes deeper moisture with it. The associated surface low is expected to move into the Mid Atlantic states by Tuesday evening and take the cold front across the area on Tuesday morning. Mid and upper level ridging should build in behind it, with surface high pressure nosing into the OH Valley at midweek. This should bring a break in the unsettled weather with mild and drier weather from late Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. The pattern will remain rather active with the next in a series of upper lows or shortwaves moving from the Southern Rockies across the Plains and into the mid MS and OH Valleys from Wed through Thursday evening. There is also some timing and strength differences with the upper and surface low beyond Thursday. The general consensus however, is for the upper and surface system to track to the west and north of the area from Thursday through Friday night and bring additional rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area. This system should continue to depart on Saturday with surface and upper level ridging building in for a dry end to the weekend. Chances for showers will be highest to start the period, followed by a lull at midweek. The next system will bring another period of unsettled weather with pops in the good chance to likely range form Thursday into Friday evening. At this point, next weekend is expected to end on a dry note. High temperatures should average above normal for most of the period, although highs on Wednesday and Saturday should be near normal for late March/Early April. Lows will also be mild and at this point are not expected to fall below 40 at any point, even in the normally colder valley locations. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually come to an end across the area through 06z. Outside of showers, mainly VFR conditions will be seen. Some lower stratocu looks to develop between 06 and 12z, mainly along and north of a line from JKL to PBX. Patchy fog may also reduce visibilities down to MVFR, although this will depend on clearing and how light winds become overnight. Another round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will threaten during the late morning and afternoon hours on Monday. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest through the period, averaging between 5 and 10 kts during the day and around 5 kts at night.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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