Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290651 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 251 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP TO INCLUDE MORE FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. KI35 HAS RECENTLY FALLEN TO ONE HALF OF A MILE IN FOG AN INDICATOR WHAT IS PROBABLY OCCURRING IN MANY OF THESE VALLEY AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY ALREADY PRESENT OR SHOULD MATERIALIZE THERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE...BUT THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...OR BY THE 9 AM TO 10 AM WINDOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND POSSIBLY SOME VALLEY FOG. NOT QUITE SURE HOW PREVALENT THE FOG WILL BE...GIVEN MODELS INDICATING 850 MB WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP THE COLUMN MIXED. EVEN SO...DID INCLUDE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST. ALSO REFRESHED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LATEST RADAR INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST OF THE NIGHT AS CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS REFRESHED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I64. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BY 2 OR 3Z THIS EVENING IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL QUITE MILD AS WELL...WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THE DAYTIME...LIKELY PERSISTING PAST SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A BRIEF LULL MAY BE SEEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS TIME AROUND...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A BIGGER THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE SHEAR BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL...SEVERE THREAT MAY HINDER ON BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...OR PERHAPS SOME LARGER HAIL WITH WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 8KFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGER SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EARLY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS GFS TRENDS TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST WHILE ECMWF BRINGS IN OUR NEXT SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. WILL PLAN TO STICK WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH BEYOND MONDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WHICH WILL KEEP FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WEAK AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SOME CHILLY AIR...AND PERHAPS SOME FROST TO SOME OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...NO PLANS TO INCLUDE FROST IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN BY WEEKS END AND MAY BRING US BACK TO A DRIER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING VFR TO THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NON TAF SITES INITIALLY THOUGH MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LOZ AND SME AFTER 9Z. SOME NON TAF SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES BEFORE 13Z. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH 14Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BE DEPARTING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN TAF SITES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD....GENERALLY FROM THE WEST INITIALLY BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP

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