Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 150751 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 351 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST...AND TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S IN SOME PLACES. DENSE VALLEY FOG IS MORE PROLIFIC EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOW STRATOCU CONTINUING TO PLAGUE FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLER START AND CLOUDS...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH JUST A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS MEAGER BY THE TIME IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. ON TUESDAY...WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH...AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DRY UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FEATURING A LARGE AND FILLING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SIMILARITIES BREAK DOWN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DIPS DEEPER INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS AND STILL SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT...THOUGH TRENDING TOWARD A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OUTLIER SOLUTION OF 24 HOURS AGO. THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILDS INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS ENERGY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND INSTEAD SHOWS RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WITH MUCH HIGHER HEIGHTS THROUGH KENTUCKY. THE 12Z ECMWF JUST COMING IN HAS TRENDED SHARPLY TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH ITS CORE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES RATHER THAN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE TREND AND BETTER SUPPORT WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER STICKING CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ONE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO EAST KENTUCKY JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO GENERATE SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS...AS IT SETTLES INTO THE BLUEGRASS SUNDAY. THE CR GRID LOAD AGAIN PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...THOUGH AGAIN DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND EACH DAY AND ALSO TO GO A BIT DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH DAWN. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSYM...WHERE SOME LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE FOG AT BAY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL ALSO ENGAGE DURING THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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