Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211903 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 303 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 303 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to control the weather across eastern Kentucky, with very warm sunny days and mild nights. As has been the case recently, we do expect some locally dense fog in the river valleys the next two nights, especially in the far east and southeast part of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 303 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather through the weekend. Models indicate a backdoor cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley late in the weekend, but this stays north of our area. In fact, weak high pressure in place at the surface will provide for plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal each day through Sunday, and we bumped up highs each day a few degrees above the Super Blend guidance with dry ground, relatively low humidity and lots of sunshine each day. Low humidity will allow overnight lows to fall back into the low 60s for most locations each night. Beyond Sunday, forecaster confidence decreases quite a bit as models indicate the development of a blocking pattern and continue to show quite a bit of timing differences with the passage of a cold front. If the 21/12Z ECMWF were to pan out, we wouldn`t see any rain until Wednesday. However, the 21/12Z GFS solution would bring a prolonged rain event from Monday night through at least Wednesday. With such differences in the models, the Super Blend offered a great compromise, offering low PoPs Monday night through Wednesday with decreasing temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 VFR conditions and near 5 knot or less northeast winds will prevail for much of the period, with the exception being where fog develops tonight into Thursday morning. This will mainly be confined to river valleys given another day without rainfall. SJS may see a period of MVFR visibilities as slightly greater near- surface moisture remains in place, along with being nearer the axis of surface ridging. This fog will mix out by around 13Z Thursday as clear skies and light winds ensue. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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