Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 041515 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1015 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 NOT MUCH TO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. JUST CHECKED TO SEE HOW MORNING MODEL RUNS INITIALIZED AND THEY APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE AT THINGS PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WAS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER AT 850MB AT NASHVILLE THAN THE OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WAS SPOT ON. STARTING TO SEE A FEW STATIONS REPORTING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IN SOUTHERN INDIANA/ SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. OBVIOUSLY WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS TRANSITION LINE THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD. LOOKS LIKE STATIONS REPORTING 32 DEGREES OR ABOVE HAVE BEEN MAINLY REPORTING RAIN TO THIS POINT...SO WILL ALSO BE WATCHING THAT AS IT WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY WE TRANSITION OVER TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE ZONES. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA. ASIDE FROM THOSE TWO THINGS...THE FORECAST IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO FAR THIS MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ON TAP FOR TODAY...WITH THE FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO STILL ON TRACK IS OUR WINTER STORM...WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NASTY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BE EXPERIENCING SOME FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY 8Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE AREA OF WINTRY PRECIP AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...OUR FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN. THE MODELS WERE STILL IN A BIT DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE WILL BE WITH THIS EVENT...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTS TO SUPPORT THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ICE TOTALS FOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT FOR MOST OF OUR COUNTIES...AS THE LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...THIS INCLUDES THE NAM12...GFS...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE SNOW WILL LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER ON THURSDAY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE ABOUT AN INCH MORE OF SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. OVERALL THE WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT WILL NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD. SEE THE UPDATED WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT FOR FORECAST SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM PIKE COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WAYNE COUNTY. IN FACT...AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS AFD...MONTICELLO WAS REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 62...LONDON 62...AND THE WHITESBURG MESONET SITE REPORTING 62 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL STEADILY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO INVADE THE AREA...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SEEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS AT THIS POINT LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TO BE BELOW FREEZING. OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL BE COLDEST LONGEST...AND WILL THEREFORE SEE THE MOST SNOW FROM THE UPCOMING WINTER STORMS. OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW AS WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS OUR FAR NORTHEAST...WITH THE FAR EAST PICKING LESS SNOW AND A BIT MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS ON THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PAINTSVILLE TO NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY TO LONDON TO EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS COLD...WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY IN THE 20S EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 520 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEPARTING EARLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDING IN. AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD PROGRESSES...THE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE CONUS WILL BECOME MORE BROAD IN NATURE WITH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTH CLOSER TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN IS EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 20 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CLEARING OCCURS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM POINTS TOWARD THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND SEVERAL FRESH INCHES OF SNOW PACK LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS FRI MORNING IN THE 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH AND THAT AREA SHOULD ALSO HAVE THE MOST SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND THUS SHOULD BE COLDEST ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON SAT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPARTS WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED. SOME SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO READINGS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THEN...THE MODERATION BEGINS...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY FOR HIGHS...WHICH ARE STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FURTHER MODERATION INTO THE 40S FOR ALL AREAS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 635 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AT THE TAF SITES. THE RAIN WILL CREATE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AND HOW MUCH FOG IS ABLE TO FORM. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL COME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SYM AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING...AND AROUND 2Z AT JKL...LOZ...SME...AND SJS. THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE ALL CHANGED OVER TO SNOW BY 8Z...WITH SYM SEEING THE SNOW AROUND 5Z. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT COULD STILL LEAD TO ICING ISSUES. THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR LEVELS AT THE AIRPORTS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 12Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118.
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&& $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...AR

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