Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 400 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND YET ONE MORE MOVING IN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A NICE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE LOW AND MID 20S...WHILE RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...TAKING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE MORE NORTHERN SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST IN SUCCESSION...HELPING TO ESTABLISH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST BY FRIDAY. THE CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO OUR DOORSTEP BY DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER... ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST NORTH...WITH MORE SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BLOSSOM AS THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED WITH THE COLD VALLEY READINGS ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THAT BY THE TIME THE BETTER PRECIPITATION DOES MOVE IN...THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERING THE SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AT ONSET...AS MAINLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SINCE ANY RAMP UP IN THE PRECIPTATION WILL MEAN AN ICY COMMUTE POTENTIALLY. ONCE THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 QUITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH QUICK MOVING S/WV TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE... WITH QUIET WEATHER ON THE HOMEFRONT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF USHERING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE END OF THE WEEKEND FEATURES A SYSTEM THAT STILL HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TIED TO IT. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES TOGETHER...IF AT ALL... THE 12Z/28 GFS SHOWS A MORE LACKLUSTER SOLUTION WITH A WEAKER TROUGH WHEREAS THE 00Z/28 ECMWF SHOWS THE ENERGY PHASING IN THE MIDWEST AND FORMING A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER EVENT FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS QUITE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS OF RIGHT NOW... THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN ON SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT. THOUGH... GIVEN ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY... STILL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DROP DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. THAT BEING SAID... IT DOES APPEAR THAT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN TUESDAY HELPING TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO LOWER 30S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A MIXED PRECIP EVENT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 219 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING CEILINGS...PRECIPITATION... AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 08 AND 14Z ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CELINGS LIKELY COME DOWN QUICKLY TO MVFR/IFR ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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