Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020405 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1205 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER HAS SETTLED DOWN AND SHOULD STAY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS...ADD SOME FOG...AND ALSO TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH AND CLEAN UP THE HWO. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME STORMS THAT HAVE TRACKED OVER THE SAME AREA NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WELL...A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED FROM FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO COVER THIS AS ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH TRAINING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE OH VALLEY WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. HAVE MENTIONED ALL THIS IN THE LATEST HWO. ADDRESSING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED. HOWEVER...EVIDENCE OF SOME UNTAPPED INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR FURTHER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR A HAIL OR WIND THREAT. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR NOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS BECOMING ISOLATED AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY 06Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE BRINGS MORE ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE...THE AREA BECOMING STABILIZED AND CALM WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWER VIS AND CIGS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 12Z. SOME ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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&& $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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