Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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333 FXUS63 KJKL 270725 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 The short term discussion will be issued shortly. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 At upper levels, a shortwave trough is expected to lift out of the plains into the Great Lakes region Sunday. Energy from this shortwave trough should move into the region, bringing the potential for more widespread showers over the weekend. Interestingly enough, the first tropical system of the hurricane season appears to form just off the carolina coast and move onshore on Sunday as well. Due to a high block in the Atlantic, this subtropical low will be stagnant over the Carolinas through the first half of the new work week. Eastern Kentucky will likely be stuck between active weather over the plains and rain along the East Coast. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible almost every day with peak heating. Tuesday looks to be the driest day as high pressure builds over Kentucky. Another shortwave trough and low pressure system embedded in the northern stream is progged to traverse the northern CONUS during the second half of the week with energy potentially extending southward and moving across our area. This system may be enough to kick the subtropical system out of the Carolinas, or could ingest its energy and bring it towards our region. Either way, there is still too much model to model discontinuity regarding these features to have much confidence in the forecast. The best confidence belongs to the weekend period where both GFS and ECMWF models show more frequent showers as the upper trough passes by to our northwest. Temperatures will be more summer-like throughout the extended period with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. The normal high temperature for this time of year is in the upper 70s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Localized fog was affecting a few places late tonight, but most of the area (including reporting TAF sites) had vfr conditions at TAF issuance. Mid and high level clouds were abundant, but were on an overall decline, and that trend should continue through the morning. This will allow continued cooling of our already moist air, which will allow more fog to develop. Non ridgetop sites are forecast to fall to MVFR or IFR, but it is not a high confidence forecast. Conditions will improve after sunrise, with all locations expected to return to VFR during the morning. After heating and destabilization on Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon and last into the evening. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...HAL

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