Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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203 FXUS63 KJKL 230252 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1052 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1052 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Main area of rain with this first push has now moved northeast of the CWA, with only isolated light showers lingering in the southern CWA. Went ahead and reduced pops across the CWA through much of the night to reflect this trend. Latest hi-res data also supports this idea, however they also are all trending dry through the morning across much of the CWA as well. This will be something to continue to monitor over the next couple of hours, as further updates to reduce pops may be needed closer to dawn. At this time, have pops increasing towards scattered again by daybreak as we get sun/heating taking place. Otherwise, grids seem to be in good shape. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure temps, dew points, and winds were on track with current conditions. All changes have been saved and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was sent out to change to overnight wording and reflect updated pops. An update to the Flash Flood watch was also sent out, though no significant changes were made. UPDATE Issued at 747 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Continuing to monitor the rain as it moves across eastern Kentucky, with what looks to be a pretty good back edge now moving into our SW CWA. That being said, there is still another round of precipitation located to our south that will likely make it into our SE counties over the next few hours. Generally favoring the HRRR solution which is initializing well with the ongoing conditions, and has this secondary area of rain moving across the eastern half of the CWA overnight. Will continue to monitor and adjust pops and needed. Otherwise, main updates at this time were just to make sure the temps, dew points, and winds were on track with current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 504 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 The leading edge of deeper moisture associated with Cindy has brought widespread showers to eastern Kentucky through the day. Lightning has been scarce so far today, with most locations receiving between a few hundredths of an inch and a half inch of rainfall, as some downsloping flow has cut into totals. The main band of showers will lift off to our northeast through this evening, with generally lesser chances expected through the overnight hours. A low level jet does pick up towards dawn, and this may initiate some better areal coverage. The remnants of Cindy will track up the Mississippi Valley on Friday, before turning more northeast across the northern half of Kentucky Friday night. An approaching cold front will interact with this system, allowing for a period of heavy rainfall that will move in to eastern Kentucky later Friday afternoon into Friday night. The models have generally shifted the higher QPF amounts more to the north with time, although given the high moisture content of the air mass, any location would have the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As such, a flash flood watch is in effect from Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. Locations generally near and north of a line from Mckee to Jackson to Inez will have the higher flash flood threat, where the higher 6 hour QPF totals will reside. Depending on the exact amounts, some significant river rises will also be possible. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there may also be a severe threat window Friday afternoon into Friday evening, given the stronger low level wind profiles in place and the proximity of the low center. As is typical, instability will be in question as mid-level lapse rates will be lacking. Have continued to mention this potential in the HWO. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 244 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday with the upper level pattern featuring a stout ridge over the western CONUS transitioning into a trough over the Great Lakes. The first wave associated with the combination of tropical moisture and a cold front will finally exit the area at the start of the forecast period. So will see a chance of showers over eastern Kentucky through the day on Saturday as the last of the showers exit the area by the evening. This will usher in a dry period as models have trended drier and drier. The mentioned stout ridge in the west will build as it shifts east nudging the axis over the Midwest by Wednesday. In addition, a bubble of surface high pressure will carve out an area of subsidence over eastern Kentucky and much of the central Appalachians. In fact, the airmass intrusion behind Cindy will bring some welcomed cooler temps to start next week with highs in the 70s expected through Wednesday. One difference in the forecast might be on Monday afternoon as the most recent 12Z Euro and GFS has brought a weak wave dropping far enough south to bring a small chance of showers and a thunderstorm. This is a change to the model trends so am more inclined to keep the dry forecast inherited from the super blend. Otherwise, the extended features dry weather and slightly cooler high temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Showers continue to impact much of eastern Kentucky this evening as a result of moisture advection associated with Tropical Storm Cindy. There is a defined back edge to this round of showers, with drying now occurring at the southern most TAF sites. However, another round of showers is set to begin moving in over the next hour or two. CIGS are varying across much of eastern Kentucky, though predominately VFR, with VIS generally P6SM except where the heaviest rain showers are currently occurring (KSYM and KJKL). Expect the VIS to improve as these heaviest bands move out. As for the rest of the night and into the day tomorrow, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. Latest trends in the Hi-Res models are showing a bit of clearing late tonight and through the morning at most of the TAF sites before round 2 (the heaviest rainfall) moves into the region from the west ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. If this dry period pans out we could see some transitions between MVFR and VFR conditions through tomorrow morning, but also cannot rule out some potential fog development. Low level wind shear will threaten later tonight as well, as 850 mb winds remain around 40 to 50 kts, while south to southeast winds at the surface remain at around 5 kts or less. By tomorrow afternoon expect winds to begin picking up from the SW at the surface, and showers and thunderstorms moving back into the region, with a general trend towards MVFR CIGS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW

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