Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211159 AAA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 759 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 746 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Areas of showers continue to move across the region in advance of a cold front an shortwave trough. Chances for showers will continue until the cold front crosses the area, starting later this morning in the west and northwest and the remainder of the area during the afternoon. A stray thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out as well. Some slight adjustments to hourly pops were made for this morning mainly to increase them over the next couple of hours in the northwest part of the area was made.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Early this morning, mid and upper level ridging were centered across the Western CONUS with another area of ridging from the Gulf of Mexico across the Bahamas and into portions of the Atlantic. In between, a mid level trough axis extended south into the Great Lakes and MS Valley from a closed low over the Hudson Bay Region. At the surface, low pressure was centered over Ontario and associated with a shortwave moving through this trough across the Great Lakes. A somewhat wavy cold front extended south through the Eastern Great Lakes and then southwest into the Lower OH Valley Region and on into the Southern Plains. A couple of shortwaves preceding the trough axis are also working through the OH Valley Region. These are leading to bands or areas of showers moving through the OH Valley region. Showers and possibly even a stray thunderstorm or two will remain possible until the cold front and mid level trough axis move across the area from late this morning into the afternoon. The shower activity may have an additional peak toward dawn or through the morning hours as the final wave moves east. Activity should then from northwest to southeast as the front moves into the area and the mid level trough axis nears. Much of the guidance has some enhancement to the showers around or after sunrise as they move across Eastern KY and into the Appalachian region with QPF picking up a bit with the potential for at least another quarter of an inch during the morning in most locations. The persistent cloud cover and showers followed by clearing and drier air working into the area from the northwest from midday into the early evening hours should lead to a somewhat non diurnal trend with highs late in the afternoon or early evening. Highs should average a bit warmer across the west and northwest and a few degrees cooler on average in the southeast where clouds and showers will suppress temperatures a bit. Mid level height rises are expected late this afternoon and tonight and continuing into Monday behind the trough axis. This will lead to rain free weather. Corresponding surface high pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley Region ushering a much drier airmass than what has been experienced over the past 6 or 7 weeks or so. Lows tonight should reach the mid to upper 50s. In fact, the forecast low at JKL for tonight of 58 would be the coldest reading since June 9th. Some valley locations did drop below 60 for min T late in June or early July and the forecast of 57 at London would be the coldest reading there since Jun 30th. With temperatures being suppressed in many locations today after the recent wet weather fog will become a concern tonight, especially in the southeastern valleys. At this time opted for patchy dense fog there and general areas of fog elsewhere. Highs on Monday should average a refreshing 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Dewpoints in the 50s will make it fell more like early September. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 338 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The long term period will feature more dry days than wet with a surface high pressure and mild air mass over the area. At the beginning of the period, the surface high pressure will slide to the east. Mid level heights will then rise through mid week as a mid and upper level ridge extends its influence northeastward. Low level flow will turn out of the south and southwest, resulting in gradually warming temperatures and dew points as deeper layer moisture increases. As a cold frontal boundary approaches the area Thursday, there will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms during peak heating. On Friday. the cold front is progged to pass through the area, evident with a windshift to the north. However, the best upper level forcing with this front stays well off to our north due to ridging in place. Therefore, decided to only go with chance pops with this frontal passage. Surface high pressure builds back into the region for the weekend. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Mainly MVFR cigs and or vis is currently reported across the region with bands of showers moving across the area in advance of a cold front. JKL is initially below airport mins, but should improve through IFR and into MVFR range over the over the next couple of hour. Elsewhere, mainly MVFR should persist during the first 4 to 6 hours of the period with shower chances. Then as the cold front passes,a gradual improvement from MVFR and into VFR range should occur starting first at SYM. Fog will become a concern tonight by the 6Z to 12Z period with at least MVFR possible at all sites. The fog is most probable in the deeper valleys and non TAF sites although LAMP guidance brings JKL, LOZ, and SME below airport mins by the end of the period. However, with the drier air expected to advect into the area confidence was not high enough to go that low at this time for these more open terrain or ridgetop locations.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JP

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