Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 092155 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES. GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THEY ALL DEPICT ONE DEEP NORTHEASTERN TROUGH REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE AGREEMENT DOES BREAK DOWN INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE DEPARTING EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO WEAKER. FOR KENTUCKY...BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH EVEN SOME RIDGING AT MID LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ITS EARLIER IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH PLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER VERSION BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH...BUT SLOWER AND STRONGER...THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS IT DIGS ITS WAVE DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG ONE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A MORE DYNAMIC SITUATION THAN THE GFS AND ITS FLATTER TROUGH. IN GENERAL...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLDER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THAT DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. GOING MORE ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...A MORE ROBUST SFC WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING ALONG THE GULF COAST...ON MONDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO...ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY RATHER WET...WILL BE A CONCERN. THE GFS...BY CONTRAST...MOVES THE SFC REFLECTION OF ITS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THESE LATTER TIME STEPS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE...BUT ONE THING IS CERTAIN -- THE GROUND HOG WAS WRONG. ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE LATEST AND MORE EXTREME ECMWF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL THE STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND WSR-88D IS INDICATING SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND FOR NOW USED A TEMPO GROUP TO HANDLE THIS. GENERALLY MOST SITES WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING TAFS IN TERMS OF VIS...AS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL...WHERE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST 15 TO 20 KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...DJ

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