Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220238 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1038 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1038 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2017 Forecast is still in good shape late this evening. Made sure the near term grids were on track with the current conditions by loading in the latest observations. High clouds have thinned out a bit over the last couple of hours, but remain partly cloudy and should begin to fill back in again later on overnight as moisture continues to filter more into the region. All grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was sent out to remove any replace evening wording with overnight. UPDATE Issued at 739 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2017 Forecast seems to be in good shape so far this evening. Did notice that a bkn deck of high clouds is in place at JKL and according to satellite across much of the CWA. Will go back and adjust cloud cover upwards to account for this. Loaded in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds to make sure the near term forecast was on track with the current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though will do this again after adjusting cloud cover as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 409 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2017 High pressure remains positioned across the mid-Mississippi Valley at the surface and through the mid-levels, as Cindy moves across the north central Gulf towards the Texas/Louisiana border. Eastern Kentucky has enjoyed the last dry day for the rest of the work week, with temperatures generally in the mid 80s, with dew points mainly in the low to mid 60s. The models are in pretty good agreement through the short term, with high pressure holding sway through most of tonight across our area. Higher dew points in place will keep lows milder tonight, generally in the mid to upper 60s. Clouds will be on the increase towards dawn, as moisture increases in response to a low level jet ramping up across the lower Mississippi Valley. Showers, with some thunderstorms possible, will move in across the area from south to north on Thursday as the nose of the low level jet moves through the region. Plenty of cloud cover and the precipitation will keep highs down, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. There may be somewhat of a lull in the activity Thursday night, as the core of the low level jet passes by to the north, and we essentially remain in a warm sector, as a baroclinic zone sets up just to our northwest. POPs will ramp back towards dawn, as the boundary drifts closer to us by that time, although depending on the exact track of Cindy, there may wind up being a sharper gradient in POPs than currently reflected in the forecast. Lows will be soupy, generally in the upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 337 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2017 The extended forecast begins on Friday with the subtropical ridge still in place over the southeastern CONUS bringing tropical moisture northward into Kentucky as the remnants of Tropical System Cindy moves into the Mid MS Valley and then east into the TN Valley. The latest run has brought the heaviest rainfall a bit further north than the previous run into Kentucky. Thus will keep QPF amounts from the super blend with a blend of the WPC amounts. Consistency in the model runs continue to keep the heaviest rainfall in the area Friday night with PWAT values well above 2 inches. So will continue to mention heavy rainfall Friday night in the HWO with the more moderate rain beginning on Friday. In addition to the heavy rainfall with the abundant moisture and increased shear, a few strong storms can`t be ruled out for Friday with some gusty winds being the main threat in addition to flooding. This element is complicated based upon the amount of forcing imposed by the cold front dropping south Friday as well. The onset of some instability to the situation could set the stage for a few severe storms as well. After this the heaviest rainfall arrives Friday night with models coming into agreement that the system will exit by Saturday evening. After the amalgamation of the front and remnants of Cindy pass through during the day on Saturday, brief ridging passes by for Saturday night and into Sunday morning with the next wave pushing into the area by Sunday afternoon. The pattern indicates a continued strong southerly surge of Gulf moisture into the area. Thankfully the upper level pattern continues to hint at a zonal and progressive flow as the shortwave pushing through will quickly exit by Monday afternoon. In addition, current model profiles indicate little instability and will seem to lack the deep convection for heavy rainfall keeping a more steady rainfall for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. This will be a welcomed pattern as the rainfall over the first half of the weekend from Cindy will likely leave many locations flooded or at least creeks and streams running high. The extended forecast period will come to an end By Tuesday night with ridging settling in once again across Kentucky for Monday night through Tuesday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2017 High pressure remains in control this evening, with daytime cumulus clouds dissipating as we lose daytime heating. In return, high clouds have taken hold across much of eastern KY as moisture begins to surge in from the SW ahead of Tropical Storm Cindy. A low level jet is expected to increase from the south and southwest towards dawn Thursday, bringing lowering ceilings and eventually showers and a few thunderstorms to the area during the day on Thursday. Based on latest models, went MVFR CIGS at most of the TAF sites during the afternoon, though given the uncertainty on the timing and impacts of showers/thunderstorms at a given TAF site, chose to leave VIS at P6SM. Both VIS and CIG will be affected if any showers and thunderstorms do pass over a TAF site. West southwest winds at generally 5 kts or less, will gradually back to the south southwest later in the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW

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