Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 242050 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 350 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 WE HAVE PRETTY MUCH ONE ISSUE OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SNOW EVENT FOR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM12...SREF...AND GFS MODELS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH PRECIP ONSET WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WITH THE AREAL EXTENT AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID...DUE TO UNFORESEEN ISSUES WITH AWIPS 2 PROBLEM SOLVING EARLIER TODAY...OUR ENTIRE GFE DATABASE AT ONE POINT THIS AFTERNOON WAS WIPED CLEAN OF BOTH MODEL DATA AND CURRENT AND PREVIOUS FORECAST DATA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SINCE PARTIALLY FIXED THAT PROBLEM...THE ONLY MODEL DATA I WAS ABLE TO LOAD INTO MY SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS WAS THE LATEST SREF OUTPUT. I AM CURRENTLY ALSO UNABLE TO SEE THE SKY AND HOURLY POPS NUMBERS FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES IN ISC. AS A RESULT...I HAVE COORDINATED AS BEST I CAN WITH MY NEIGHBORS IN HOPES THAT I MATCH UP AT LEAST FAIRLY WELL WITH ALL OF YOU. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE PRECIP ONSET BEGINNING AROUND 0Z THURSDAY IN OUR FAR SOUTH...WITH A RAPID UPTICK IN POPS THROUGH 6Z THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING ANYWHERE FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...UP TO AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POTENTIALLY IN SOME OF OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. DUE TO THE ISSUES WE ARE CURRENTLY HAVING WITH OUR GFE DATABASE...WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS DURING THE DAY SHIFT. THE INCOMING EVENING SHIFTERS HAVE BEEN BRIEFED ON THE SITUATION AND IT WILL BE LEFT UP TO THEM OR TONIGHTS MID SHIFT TO DECIDE IF ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS NEED TO BE ISSUED. SORRY FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY BE CAUSING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN OF WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND TOMORROWS HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE ALSO ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS PERIOD SEEMS POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER TOT HE EAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA...ALLOWING THESE FEATURES TO MOVE STRAIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRINGS PRECIP UP INTO SOUTHERN KY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGING ARCTIC AIR AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW...WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE DRY ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EURO AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BEING INDICATIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO KEEPS POPS IN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH AS SOME TEMPS THERE COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW GENERALLY WENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND THOSE WERE IN THE FAR EAST AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BY THE WEEKEND...MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AND MOVES FROM THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS UP TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. WITH THIS...WILL BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPS BEING THIS WARM WILL LEAD TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THIS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN HERE ALLOWS ALOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THE SUPER BLEND CAME IN WITH HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAF SITES WILL BE EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA. THE TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 2.5K FROM 10Z ONWARD...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...AR

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