Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251959 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 359 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST TODAY...WITH MODEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH AT TIMES GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. DAYTIME MIXING HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES UNDER WHAT MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING YESTERDAY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR...ANY TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT AT BAY...LEADING TO A DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...CU SHOULD DISSIPATE QUITE A BIT...LEADING TO A RATHER PLEASANT EVENING AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY COOL OFF UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SET UP A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 50S...WHILE THE MIXED RIDGES STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO NEW ENGLAND...WILL SEND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. WHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...FEEL THAT MODELS MAY STILL BE OVERDOING SURFACE MOISTURE AND ALLOWING FOR WAY TOO MUCH CONVECTION. UNTIL SOMETHING CAN FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING VORT MAX CROSSES THE REGION...WE`LL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH CONVECTION AS WE WILL BE LACKING TRIGGERS. ALSO...THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ON THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS WELL...SO THAT LENDS ITSELF TO LESS CONVECTION AS WELL. BY LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY FIRES ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE MORE TO THE EAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW...SO STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL REACH AND WILL BE MAINLY DETERMINED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...PUSHING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. THUS...HARD TO GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN CHANCES. ALSO...WHILE WE ARE IN A MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW...OVERALL SHEAR IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE. IF THE INSTABILITY IS ALSO LESS IMPRESSIVE LIKE I ANTICIPATE...THAN THE SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SOME SMALL HAIL COULD STILL BE SEEN BY THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE VORT MAX AND INSTABILITY EXITS BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING...WE`LL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO BEING MUCH QUIETER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...ONLY FALLING A TOUCH UNDER 60 FOR MOST AREAS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH A LINGERING SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE IN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING SOME TEMPORARY DRY WEATHER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOWING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOMEWHAT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL FORCING MECHANISMS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE POPS A TAD...BUT HAVE STILL ALLOWED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL COME IN ON SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY...WITH TROUGHINESS REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S. READINGS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS RETREAT TO THE LOWER 70S.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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