Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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519 FXUS63 KJKL 250556 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 156 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 156 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Mesoscale convective system across lower Michigan back to St. Louis has kicked out an outflow boundary, possibly serving as a focus for showers/storms this morning and this afternoon. Ridging parked across the Mid-Atlantic should keep enough subsidence in place to negate the threat of any convection propagating into eastern Kentucky from said ongoing system. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 343 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Models are in decent agreement through the short term. Mid/upper level flattened ridge over the region buckles through the period in response to a short wave trough digging through the Mid-West. A surface cold frontal boundary will be nudged southeastward reaching as far as the Ohio River by late Monday night. The threat of rain will increase through the short term as this system approaches our area. Current model runs suggest that should any organized convection associated with the approaching system develop, it would not reach into eastern Kentucky until Monday night. That being the case, unfavorable timing may inhibit any widespread significant rainfall until beyond the short term window. Thicknesses Monday are not quite as high as today, and H850 temps appear slightly cooler on average. So afternoon highs may be just a tad cooler Monday afternoon. In addition, surface boundary does not make it to the Ohio River until late Monday night. Consequently the more significant moisture pool ahead of the sfc boundary does not make it into our area Monday afternoon... remaining further north in central Ohio/Indiana. Therefore our heat index values will continue to rise to around 100 degrees Monday afternoon, a little shy to warrant any type of heat advisory headlines. With respect to hydro issues, storm motions remains well below 10 kts through the period. Forecast soundings also suggest a gradual increase in PWATs. So any thunderstorm activity Monday and Monday night may be a bit more efficient at producing heavy rain as compared to the last couple of days. Consequently locally heavy rain may become an increasing threat with time. Will continue to mention this potential in the HWO. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 343 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 The dominant southern CONUS ridge is forecast to separate into two centers during the period, one over the Four Corners Region and the other over the western Atlantic. The weakness in between will be right over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be located along the Ohio River Tuesday morning. The models are fairly consistent in keeping this front pretty much in place, with minor wiggles north and south, through the rest of the work week. The front is progged to be shoved through only to be followed by another front dropping into the Ohio Valley over the weekend. All of this points to a fairly unsettled period with persistent chances for showers and storms. PWATs remain near 2 inches through the period so the main concern with these repeating showers/storms will be for flooding, even though it has been fairly dry of late. Temperatures are expected to cool slightly, with daytime highs remaining in the 80s for most locations. However, dewpoints will remain pretty consistent in the low 70s, so it will continue to be very muggy with no real relief in sight there. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 VFR conditions in play at all sites may make a run at MVFR visibilities later tonight into early Monday morning, but more pronounced fog will of course reside in typical valley locations and in areas that received precipitation Sunday. This will lift by 12-13Z as diurnal mixing ensues. An approaching frontal boundary and continued sultry airmass will bring better chances of storms this afternoon. Have therefore maintained VCTS mention at all sites for this afternoon through this evening. Light and variable winds early this morning will become southwesterly late this morning and this afternoon while generally remaining near 5 knots or so, except for underneath thunderstorms where higher gusts will occur. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.