Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261809 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 209 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1134 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers that were moving across the western CWA as of 8am have now encompassed much of eastern KY, while becoming slightly more scattered in nature. Meanwhile, the mid level wave is currently moving eastward into West Virginia. However, this is not deterring new development on the backside of this span of showers. Pops will likely need to be increased across the western CWA to account for this continued redevelopment. Upstream a expansive line of showers and thunderstorms continues to track eastward into PAH and INDs CWAs as of 15Z. These cells are producing strong thunderstorms, but with little shear seem pulsy in nature. Latest hi res models (specifically the HRRR which is initializing the best) continue to show the line reaching central KY and diminishing in strength, with very little concern for eastern KY and the JKL CWA. This remains to be seen however. The hope is that continued shower development over central and east central KY will move across our region and rob us of some of our clearing and lift throughout the early afternoon. However if we are able to get some clearing across the area, this will only help to fuel temperatures and lift, so it is possible some thunderstorms could sustain themselves into our area. Especially since the arrival time to eastern KY will be during peak afternoon convective times. Will continue to monitor and update as needed. As of now, any pop and weather updates have been published and sent to ndfd/web, with a new forecast package sent out as well. Sky was also updated accordingly, and the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds were loaded into the near term grids. UPDATE Issued at 649 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers have become very numerous over the western portion of the area early this morning, as they continue their march eastward. have raised pops to likely for most of the area during the morning. There have been a few very sparse lightning strikes, but have not included it in the forecast yet, thinking that the probability at any given location is still quite low this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 414 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers developed over central ky during the night and were starting to move into the JKL CWA at forecast issuance time. These were occurring as a shortwave trough moved east in an area of isentropic lift. The hrrr model was picking up on these showers, but it has shown variation run to run. the forecast loosely follows the evolution of the precip in the hrrr for this morning. After this, the forecast transitions to a reliance on the nam and gfs, with a possibility for more development with afternoon heating. The big picture still has a southeast ConUS upper ridge in place, and a broad western ConUS upper trough. We are on the periphery of the ridge`s influence. The main westerlies were just to our north and west, and this is where the better focus for convection will be. Any pattern changes will be slow to come about. Will look for a general diurnal trend for precip in our local area, with an overall decline tonight, and another possible uptick with heating on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 327 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 The extended forecast will feature well above normal temperatures, muggy conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The model data at this time is a bit sketchy on timing details of the weather systems that might bring rain to eastern Kentucky from Friday night through the middle of next week, so precipitation chances were kept fairly low, in the 20 to 30 percent chance range across the board. In general, the forecast is calling for rain chances each day and night, with the best chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures each day in the extended are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 While a few lingering showers are ongoing across eastern KY a the time of TAF issuance, attention turns to a strong line of showers and thunderstorms currently moving across western and central KY. Convection is now also occurring ahead of the main line. Timing this out, expect the western most TAF sites (KSME/KLOZ) to be affected first, likely between 22 and 23z. The line is then expected to lose overall intensity as it continues eastward toward the other TAF sites through around 3z. At present time, it is hard to know exact impacts on each TAF site, so will likely need to update TAFs as we see storms are nearing the airports. Ongoing threats to our west include hail, torrential rains, frequent lightning, and gusts between 30 and 40kts. After the line moves through later tonight, high pressure and some possible clearing will take hold. This may lead to some fog development at the TAF sites, though confidence on exact VIS restrictions is lows, especially considering it will be very much correlated with when and how much rain occurs this evening. Any fog should clear out by morning, with (VFR) diurnal CU developing as we head into the early afternoon.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

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