Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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000
FXUS63 KJKL 141608 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1208 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend will continue today.
- A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to end the
workweek.
- Hard freeze conditions Monday night and Tuesday night could kill
any cold sensitive vegetation that has emerged prematurely due
to early season warmth.
&&
.UPDATE...
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Issued at 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent
observations. Also, max T for most locations was trended up a
couple of degrees on average more toward the 7Z NBM 50th
percentile as the trend of highs above NBM deterministic should
continue for another day in the warm sector.
UPDATE Issued at 810 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
No substantive changes were necessary. Early morning temperatures
have been blended into the forecast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 509 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
Broad mid/upper level ridging is over the southeast CONUS this
morning, while a closed upper low embedded in a deep trough is
over the southwest CONUS. In between, low level flow is bringing
gulf moisture northward beneath a long west southwesterly fetch
aloft. The flow off the gulf meets with a frontal boundary
extending from TX to MO to OH, with a low over MO. The greatest
moisture advection is to our west, but with time we will finally
see more substantial increases in dew points today and tonight.
This will lead to showers and thunderstorms, mainly as the low
travels along the front and the front approaches late tonight and
moves through on Friday. However, even late today forecast
soundings show potential for thunderstorms over our far northern
counties. It remains to be seen exactly how convection which
develops upstream over MO and AR this evening affects our POP
timing. If the convection races eastward fast enough, we could see
our main rain earlier (such as late tonight into early Friday)
and have our POP cut into as the front passes (later on Friday).
It still looks like there will be rain-- just a matter of timing.
The period of high POP currently in the forecast may get trimmed
to a shorter length as details become more clear.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
The forecast period begins with the area on the backside of a cold
front that`s forecast to move through the region on Friday.
Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday
night before precipitation tapers off from west to east by Saturday
morning. Highs on Saturday are expected to be about 10 to 15 degrees
colder than Friday and highs will be even colder for Sunday. Upper-
level zonal flow will keep overnight lows relatively moderate as
lows are forecast to be in the low to mid-40s.
The weekend ends with a dry cold front crossing through the area.
Models have continued to trend drier and drier with this potential
system and now PoP chances have been entirely eliminated for Sunday.
However, the upper-level trough responsible for the cold front is
still expected to pivot toward the CWA and bring the potential for
rain/snow mix to the region for Monday afternoon. The areas mostly
likely going to see PoP will be along and north of the Mountain
Parkway. Another chance of precipitation exists for Tuesday as
models are in agreement that a weak cold front will move through the
region Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will gradually increase
through the week before models bring another system through the
region for the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
Primarily VFR conditions are forecast at least until near the end
of the period. Light and variable winds early this morning will
pick up out of the south to southwest at around 10 kts today, with
gusts around 20 kts in many places. Winds subside again this
evening. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
near and north of I-64 late this afternoon. If they occur,
localized sub-VFR conditions would result. There is a much higher
probability of showers and thunderstorms arriving near the end of
the forecast period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL