Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180523 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 123 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 101 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 IR SAT showing a few high clouds streaming across portions of eastern KY this hour. The surface analysis shows high pressure off to our east and we are beginning to see the gradient setup. Overall mild night across the region particularly on the ridges, and no surprise the typical 10 to 15 degree ridge/valley split has setup. These aforementioned elements will set the stage for a warm and breezy day today. Overall grid are in great shape with only a few minor edits for the latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 1030 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 Forecast remains on track tonight with lows expected to be a few degrees higher than this morning. Increasing winds should help the most locations stay mixed overnight, limiting the fog potential. So have reduced fog to just patchy in the deepest valleys. Otherwise, freshened up the hourly temps to reflect most recent obs and sent updates to NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 Quick update to freshen up the hourly temps. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 314 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 High pressure centered off the coast of the mid Atlantic states will provide a continuation of mild and dry weather through Tuesday night. Lows tonight will not be too far off from last nights temperatures, but could be just a degree or two warmer. Highs on Tuesday will ease upwards likely a few degrees above highs today. By tomorrow night, cloud cover issues start to come into play, as clouds may start to drift into the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Thus, will go a bit milder on lows. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 314 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 The ridge of high pressure that has been bringing well above normal temperatures and dry weather to eastern Kentucky the past couple of days will finally begin to break down and move off to our east Wednesday and Wednesday night. The reason for this will be the approach of a strong cold front, that will be moving eastward out of the Great Plains. Rain showers are expected to moving into our northwestern counties late Wednesday afternoon, out ahead of the front. The rain should become more widespread Wednesday night into early Thursday, as the front begins making a big push to the east. Based on the latest model guidance, the front should be moving across eastern Kentucky Thursday afternoon and evening. As it does so, the rain showers will become numerous, and we may even see a few thunderstorms fire up along the front, as cold air aloft creates some instability in the low levels. The front is forecast to only slowly exit the area, with scattered to numerous rain showers expected to last through around dawn on Friday. The front should be out of our area by early Friday morning, with a few rain showers perhaps lingering behind the boundary due to moist upslope flow. The rain will likely be slow to exit the area, as a large scale trough aloft if forecast to push across the eastern half of the CONUS Friday and Friday night. The last rain showers should be exiting the area by very early Saturday morning. The weekend overall is expected to be dry with below normal temperatures, as the air mass behind the departed cold front is going to be quite cool. In fact, highs on Friday and Saturday will be hard pressed to reach 60 degrees for most locations. Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night are still expected to fall into the lower 40s around the area. Some of our deeper and most sheltered valleys may even see upper 30s. The question now becomes, regarding low temps over the weekend, is how much clearing will take place? If we see more clearing than we are currently expecting, more widespread minimum readings in the 30s may be experienced, especially Saturday night. For now will continue with only minimal low readings in the upper 30s for a few spots Saturday night. The first couple of days of the extended should continue to see well above normal temperatures, with highs on Wednesday forecast to reach the low to mid 80s, and ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Nightly lows are expected to range from the lower 60s Wednesday night to around 50 Thursday night. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 VFR will be the story through the TAF period. The biggest aviation concern will be the potential for LLWS through dawn, as a SW LLJ creeps into the region from west to east. Then increasing gradient and mixing through the day will lead to gusty SW winds area wide through the late morning into the early evening hours. Wind gust of 20 to 25 knots are not out of the question especially across the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. While CIGS will remain VFR there is the potential for diurnally driven CU at around 5 KFT and added that thought through the afternoon. The CU and gusty winds will dissipate by the early evening hours.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.