Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251843 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 243 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST TODAY...WITH MODEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH AT TIMES GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. DAYTIME MIXING HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES UNDER WHAT MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING YESTERDAY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR...ANY TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT AT BAY...LEADING TO A DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...CU SHOULD DISSIPATE QUITE A BIT...LEADING TO A RATHER PLEASANT EVENING AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY COOL OFF UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SET UP A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 50S...WHILE THE MIXED RIDGES STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO NEW ENGLAND...WILL SEND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. WHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...FEEL THAT MODELS MAY STILL BE OVERDOING SURFACE MOISTURE AND ALLOWING FOR WAY TOO MUCH CONVECTION. UNTIL SOMETHING CAN FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING VORT MAX CROSSES THE REGION...WE`LL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH CONVECTION AS WE WILL BE LACKING TRIGGERS. ALSO...THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ON THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS WELL...SO THAT LENDS ITSELF TO LESS CONVECTION AS WELL. BY LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY FIRES ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE MORE TO THE EAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW...SO STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL REACH AND WILL BE MAINLY DETERMINED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...PUSHING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. THUS...HARD TO GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN CHANCES. ALSO...WHILE WE ARE IN A MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW...OVERALL SHEAR IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE. IF THE INSTABILITY IS ALSO LESS IMPRESSIVE LIKE I ANTICIPATE...THAN THE SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SOME SMALL HAIL COULD STILL BE SEEN BY THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE VORT MAX AND INSTABILITY EXITS BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING...WE`LL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO BEING MUCH QUIETER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...ONLY FALLING A TOUCH UNDER 60 FOR MOST AREAS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY RIPPLES IN THE 500MB LAYER. RIGHT NOW KEEP OVERALL BETTER CHANCES OF POPS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A LULL PERIOD EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MOVES NE AND BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS MORE OF A WARM FRONT. THEN COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW DO BRING AT LEAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THIS REMAINS THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN REDUCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...AS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT AND FRONT TRACKS EAST. THAT SAID FRIDAY STANDS TO BE THE DRY DAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SLIDES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSES EAST. THEN AFTER THE DRY PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH INITIAL OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...RIGHT NOW LEFT THUNDER OUT GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY. WHILE LIMITED A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND AND THEREFORE INTRODUCE THUNDER AGAIN BY SUNDAY OVERALL SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS MARGINAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME. ONE ISSUE IS THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE BETTER WAVES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE. ALSO BETTER FORCING RIDES NORTH EACH TIME THEREFORE BECOMING A LIMITING FACTOR. THIS SEEMS TO BE BACKED UP BY THE CIPS ANALOG AND SPC MARS WHICH HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SIGNAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOR EASTERN KY. NOW TEMP WISE LOOKS LIKE WE REMAIN IN A WARM PATTERN. LOW TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWERS 60S...WHILE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE UPPER 40S. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THIS TIME OF YEAR AVERAGE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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