Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 140310 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1110 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SPOTTY RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY EAST. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE...IN A LARGE PART...FOR THE WARM...RECORD AND NEAR RECORD FOR THE DATE...AND BREEZY... ESPECIALLY WEST...DAY THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY ENJOYED. ON THE DOWN SIDE...IT DID NOT DO MUCH TO HELP CONTAIN SOME OF THE ON-GOING FIRES ACROSS THE AREA. ONE JUST OVER LETCHER/S BORDER WITH WISE COUNTY IN VIRGINIA SHOWS UP QUITE WELL ON SATELLITE AND HAS BEEN SENDING SMOKE INTO PIKE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE LOWER HUMIDITIES AND WARM BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING FOR RIDGETOP LOCATIONS WHILE THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND GET A BIT COOLER AND HAVE HIGHER HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND LACK OF MIXING. EXPECT MANY VALLEY LOWS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TOWARD DAWN AS THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CIRRUS AND ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL MITIGATE THE VALLEY DROP OFF TO SOME EXTENT...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH FOR SPLIT WORDING IN THE ZONES. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS DAWN...BUT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID MORNING FOR MOST PLACES. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THIS IDEA IN MIND AND THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE SOME OF THE TRANSITIONAL WORDING FOR THIS EVENING. THESE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY WITH AN HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW AS THE FIRE THREAT WANES LATER THIS EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A STATIONARY STRETCHED NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STOUT BAROCLINICITY IS IN PLACE AS EXEMPLIFIED IN KANSAS...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE...WHILE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE PRESENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES...ENJOYING NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE SOME THINNESS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS A QUICK DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...OTHERWISE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS...BESIDES A BRIEF DROP DOWN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ENCROACH UPON THE WEST TOWARDS DAWN. THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE EXTREME EAST SEEING MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE ALOFT AND A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE. SOME INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS AT LEAST MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT...AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR SOME SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN QUICKLY TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET...ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR WHILE LINGERING THE MOISTURE LONGER...SUGGESTING SOME DECENT ACCUMULATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER...BUT NOTHING LIKE THE NAM...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO THE INHERITED NUMBERS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT AND ABOVE 2000 FEET...AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE ON TOP OF BLACK MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE 40S...WITH RIDGETOPS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 NOT THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF CAME IN WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME THAN THE GFS DID. THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND NAEFS WERE ALSO DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THEIR OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED PRETTY MUCH THE STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST TOOL...WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE AND THERE. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE BLAST OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO DESCEND UPON THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND...TO SOME EXTENT...WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE WILL LIKELY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A FRIGID AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE...WITH SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS PERHAPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD FROST AND A HARD FREEZE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WAS STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE BOARD. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TUESDAY NIGHTS TEMPERATURES WERE MADE...AS THEY ALREADY LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. A FREEZE WATCH AND OR WARNING WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT TO ADDRESS THE COLD OUTBREAK TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FROST EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND QUITE NICELY ON WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND THE AIR MASS MODIFIED DURING THE DAY UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S...WHICH WILL SEEM QUITE NICE AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY. A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PERHAPS TOPPING IN THE 60S EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND THE AIR MASS MODIFIES EVEN MORE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN BY MORNING AT LOZ AND SME...WITH JKL AND SJS LIKELY REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS LATER TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL THEN PROVIDE A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...BEFORE MIXING ALLOWS FOR THE MOMENTUM OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SURFACE...STILL OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THESE WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME BY MID AFTERNOON AS THAT FRONT CLOSES IN...CARRYING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH MVFR VIS AND NEAR MVFR CIGS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.