Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200701 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 301 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017 A ridge of high pressure will be the dominate weather feature across the region over the next few days. As a result, dry weather, warming temperatures, and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will be on tap. Winds should be light and variable during the period. Areas of valley fog will form and persist through early this morning before dissipating. The fog may even be dense in locations that received rainfall Sunday and Sunday night. After a full day and night of dry weather, the fog threat Tuesday night will not be as high, therefore only patchy fog is expected early Wednesday morning in valleys, especially near bodies of water. Temperatures should be at or just above normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s expected today and tomorrow. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 352 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 Wednesday should remain dry as high pressure is in place across the CWA, with a stalled front located southeast of the region, and another weak/dying frontal boundary washing out just north of the state. Skies will remain mostly clear with generally light SW flow at the surface. Temperatures will once again rise back into the mid 80s, despite the overarching upper level troughing in place. By Thursday, attention turns to a tropical system moving onshore along the Gulf of Mexico. This system will slowly continue shifting northward into the southern Mississippi Valley to finish out the week, before shifting northeast and into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and dissipating by Sunday. This will pull warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico back into the Commonwealth, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to return to the forecast by Thursday. On Friday, the moisture in place across the region will also interact with an incoming cold front pushing in from the NW, bringing more widespread convection to the CWA and much of the state. While thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the afternoon/evening, the more concerning thing to note will be the amount of moisture and therefore QPF to be expected. Latest GFS20 soundings are showing PWAT values well above 2 inches during portions of the day Friday and into Saturday morning, even above 2.25 inches in some instances. This will be something to watch for potential flooding concerns during this time. The frontal boundary is forecast to become stalled out across Kentucky for the remainder of the weekend as the tropical low becomes absorbed in the overall longwave pattern and loses strength, and a very strong high pressure ridge just off the Atlantic coast blocks forward progression. Kept scattered showers and thunderstorms forecasted across the region during the weekend as a result. This ridge will eventually begin shifting eastward and allow the boundary to finally pass through Kentucky Sunday night/Monday, rounding out the forecast period. By this point, any remaining precipitation across the CWA will be in the form of rain, with little instability left to initiate convection.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017 VFR conditions are expected through out the period at JKL, SYM, and SJS. LOZ and SME may experience some MVFR conditions due to fog between 8 and 12Z this morning. SCT clouds with bases around 6K are expected to form across the area by 15 or 16Z this morning. These clouds will likely persist through the end of the TAF period once they form. Winds should be light and variable. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.