Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171937 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 337 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SPOTS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SOUTH OF KY OVER TN. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KY TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE 8H JET WILL RAMP UP AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PWS FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY GOES SOUNDER DATA THAT WAS AVAILABLE PRIOR TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION WILL BE LESS ORGANIZED AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. HERE AT NWS JACKSON...OUR DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN NORMAL OR BELOW EVERY DAY SINCE JULY 23RD. THAT TREND WILL LIKELY END BY MID WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER FOR SURE. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A WEAKENED FEATURE LEFTOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY PRETTY MUCH THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BE TYPICAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT MAY POTENTIALLY BE AUGMENTED BY ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. STORM CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT...BUT CANNOT BE TOTALLY REMOVED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE PRECIPITATION AREA MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH VFR PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREA. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER 03Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING BUT LOW CLOUD AND FOG WILL LINGER AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SBH

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