Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200303 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1003 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1002 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 AS FEARED...THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 0240Z HAS THE COLD FRONT JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LITTLE TO NO RADAR RETURNS PRESENT. ANOTHER WEAK BAND IS DEVELOPING UP STREAM AND LOOKS TO BE WITH THE FRONT. THIS MAY...WITH THE HELP OF THE TERRAIN BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON TRENDS...A DRY FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THIS SECOND BAND DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST SO WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE FOR NOW. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IS THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN THE VALLEY TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE CONTINUED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE INGESTED THE LATEST OBS AND SENT THE GIRDS TO THE NDFD SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 AS OF 0100Z LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY DRY FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ALIGN WITH THIS ARRIVING FEATURE BETTER. THERE IS A CONCERN HERE THAT THIS WILL COMPLETELY DRY OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL GIVE IT SOME MORE TIME TO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE KEPT AROUND 20 AND BELOW POPS FOR THIS EVENT WITH ACCUMULATION BEING A DUSTING AT MOST AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE RIDGES. THERE WILL BE QUIET A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH THIS FRONT THOUGH AND HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER HIGHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW PLACES IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. SO HAVE PUT SOME RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TEMPS IN THESE AREAS. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ARRIVING ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN AND WITH SURFACE TEMPS QUITE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A FEW INSTANCES OF FREEZING RAIN AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND RIDGE AXIS NUDGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING WHEN SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AND THUS NO FREEZING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THE LONE INSTANCES TO THIS WILL BE AS MOISTURE IS PULLED AROUND THE HIGH AND NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...PRECIP MAY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN OH BEFORE IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT SAID...A BRIEF AND SMALL AREA OF FREEZING PRECIP MAY SET UP IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE PUT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE HWO FOR NORTH OF I-64. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 SHORT TERM MODELS...ALONG WITH REMAINING LARGER SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU NIGHT. WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHT VALUES ON THE REBOUND AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVERALL...SO WE WILL NOT QUITE SEE THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR THU MORNING THAT WE SAW EARLIER TODAY. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A TEN DEGREE WARM-UP FOR MORNING MINS. HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CHANGE IN SHORT TERM WAS TO BEEF UP THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK. FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AS 5H TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EXODUS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL DRYING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THEN SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A FAIRLY DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX AS LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ALONG THE THE MID LEVELS ARE OPENED UP TO GULF MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT CYCLONES THAT WILL BE WORKING OUT OF THE ARK-TEX REGION AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SLOW PROGRESSION DOWN JUST A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL TRENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE WORK WEEK STARTS. THIS FEATURE WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME EXITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ON BACKSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY THIS POINT... MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 813 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW 4 KFT CLOUD DECKS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW INSTANCES OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS. OTHER THAN THIS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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