Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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396 FXUS63 KJKL 190530 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 130 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 130 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016 Cloud challenges remain the main issue in the near term this hour. This is evident in the obs this hour with mesonet in Barbourville sitting at 61 and is the cool spot due to less cloud cover. Overall tried to establish a trend in the obs, but this will remain a challenge as decks expand and dissipate from time to time. The other challenge will be do we see showers in the far NW overnight, and for now seems like forecast grids are on track with the latest CAM data. UPDATE Issued at 749 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 Forecast remains on track. Updated hourly NDFD for latest observational trends. Main forecast challenge in the near term will be sky cover for the overnight period and impact on temperatures. A band of clouds extending from western KY through southern OH continues to advance southeast, just now getting into the extreme northern part of Fleming County. It is uncertain how far southeast this cloud band will make it tonight. Most of the high resolution short range models currently have this band too far to the northwest. Updated sky cover grids with idea that clouds will gradually spread across the forecast area during the overnight period. This is generally in line with previous forecast, with only some timing differences showing up. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 A cold front is pushing southeast across the Midwest and should reach the Ohio River by about dawn on Wednesday. This system will stall out right along the Ohio River as it loses its upper level support and Mid/upper level heights begin to increase aloft. A stronger upstream trough will drop into the Missouri-Mississippi valley regions Wednesday night and produce a sfc wave or low over the lower Ohio Valley which will then ride up the Ohio River reaching SDF by early Thursday morning. Together these features will bring an increasing threat of precipitation to portions of our area beginning late tonight into Wednesday afternoon for areas along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor and then further south and east Wednesday night. Regardless PoPs will remain low ahead of the main event just beyond the short term. We can expect slight to low chance PoPs where the threat of rain exists. Best chance for thunder appears to be during the afternoon Wednesday, generally along and north of Interstate 64. Any thunder would be Isold to Sct in coverage. Better instability is lacking otherwise and mainly elevated in nature. However, did keep some Isold thunder in the forecast for early Wednesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 400| PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 A sharp mid level trough will drive a strong cold front eastward across Kentucky on Thursday with widespread precipitation expected. The best chances of rain will come during the afternoon and evening hours with the frontal passage. Instability will increase ahead of the approaching front with surface LI`s dropping to -4. We also have some modest SW unidirectional shear in place which could support a few bowing structures with any storms that can develop. DCAPE is getting up there as well and could support some downburst winds. Thus, will introduce the mention of a few storms containing some strong winds. Thunder threat will decrease as the front departs Thursday evening, but some clouds and showers could linger behind the front well into Friday morning. Still some question as to how long clouds will linger into Friday afternoon and evening and its possible we continue to deal with cloud cover through Friday night. However, as the mid level ridge builds in on Saturday, any remaining cloud cover will exit, leaving behind mainly clear skies for the rest of the weekend. Highs on Friday and Saturday will take a large step downwards with readings only in the 50s. Despite the cool highs, conditions never really come together for a good freeze or frost, so as of right now, looks like we might be able to squeeze past this weekend without a frost or freeze. Still wouldn`t rule out some patchy frost in some of the deeper eastern valleys late Saturday night. Airmass will moderate as we head into Sunday and next week with highs back into the 60s. High pressure will generally be in control from Saturday onward, leading to another extended dry stretch of weather well into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. We have however seen some mid level clouds at around 5 to 6 KFT streaming across portions of the region. Therefore kept SCT to BKN deck at most sites through the night and into the day today. The only site that may see better coverage of clouds is SYM, as they remain closer to the boundary. Also introduced VCSH toward dawn for SYM, as some showers moving out of Ohio are possible based on consensus of the short term models. Winds have subsided and will remain light through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...DJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.