Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
937 FXUS63 KJKL 011957 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS LEFTOVER FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CLOVER. MUCH OF THE AREA IS BREAKING OUT INTO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW CIGS AND VIS WITH THE SCATTERED STORMS. WITH A MOIST AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH MOST TAF SITES GOING DOWN TO IFR AND BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.