Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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491 FXUS63 KJKL 222104 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 504 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 504 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 The leading edge of deeper moisture associated with Cindy has brought widespread showers to eastern Kentucky through the day. Lightning has been scarce so far today, with most locations receiving between a few hundredths of an inch and a half inch of rainfall, as some downsloping flow has cut into totals. The main band of showers will lift off to our northeast through this evening, with generally lesser chances expected through the overnight hours. A low level jet does pick up towards dawn, and this may initiate some better areal coverage. The remnants of Cindy will track up the Mississippi Valley on Friday, before turning more northeast across the northern half of Kentucky Friday night. An approaching cold front will interact with this system, allowing for a period of heavy rainfall that will move in to eastern Kentucky later Friday afternoon into Friday night. The models have generally shifted the higher QPF amounts more to the north with time, although given the high moisture content of the air mass, any location would have the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As such, a flash flood watch is in effect from Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. Locations generally near and north of a line from Mckee to Jackson to Inez will have the higher flash flood threat, where the higher 6 hour QPF totals will reside. Depending on the exact amounts, some significant river rises will also be possible. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there may also be a severe threat window Friday afternoon into Friday evening, given the stronger low level wind profiles in place and the proximity of the low center. As is typical, instability will be in question as mid-level lapse rates will be lacking. Have continued to mention this potential in the HWO. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 244 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday with the upper level pattern featuring a stout ridge over the western CONUS transitioning into a trough over the Great Lakes. The first wave associated with the combination of tropical moisture and a cold front will finally exit the area at the start of the forecast period. So will see a chance of showers over eastern Kentucky through the day on Saturday as the last of the showers exit the area by the evening. This will usher in a dry period as models have trended drier and drier. The mentioned stout ridge in the west will build as it shifts east nudging the axis over the Midwest by Wednesday. In addition, a bubble of surface high pressure will carve out an area of subsidence over eastern Kentucky and much of the central Appalachians. In fact, the airmass intrusion behind Cindy will bring some welcomed cooler temps to start next week with highs in the 70s expected through Wednesday. One difference in the forecast might be on Monday afternoon as the most recent 12Z Euro and GFS has brought a weak wave dropping far enough south to bring a small chance of showers and a thunderstorm. This is a change to the model trends so am more inclined to keep the dry forecast inherited from the super blend. Otherwise, the extended features dry weather and slightly cooler high temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Showers and MVFR ceilings at the leading edge of the moisture advection associated with Tropical Storm Cindy will continue to advance northeast across the region. Ceilings then look to raise up this evening, before potentially lowering again towards dawn. Shower chances will be diminishing from southwest to northeast this evening, as the first surge of moisture exits off to the northeast. Low level wind shear will threaten later tonight, as 850 mb winds remain around 40 to 50 kts, while south to southeast winds at the surface remain at around 5 kts or less. There will at least be a threat of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms into Friday, as the cold front begins to move in from the west and northwest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.