Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241901 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 301 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE GULF REGION...NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS ESSENTIALLY CREATED A CAP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED ENOUGH...THIS CAP IS HOLDING MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ATTEMPTING TO POP UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT WITH THE WARM MID LEVEL AIR...ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME SUSTAINING THEMSELVES. GIVEN THE TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT A BIT BETTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 60S SHOWING UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE A FEW LOWER 60 VALUES CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT YIELDING MUCH OF THE SAME WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF A ROGUE SHOWER ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT A BIT BETTER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND COULD YIELD LOWS A BIT COOLER FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST VALLEYS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S. TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE PLENTY OF VALLEY FOG...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST BEFORE THE SIMILARITIES IN THE FLOW BREAK DOWN LATE. A LARGE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE NATION/S MIDSECTION WILL START TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS FAST FLOW RIPPLES WAVES OF ENERGY OVER ITS NORTHERN EXTENT. THIS HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR THE WEEKEND...AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...MORE ROBUST IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...WILL START TO FILL AND SEND ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THIS AS A DISTINCT FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT THROWS OFF ENERGY AND EASES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GFS...IN CONTRAST...HAS MUCH HIGHER HEIGHTS FOR THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND JUST A HINT OF TROUGHINESS MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH. FAVOR THE BLENDED SOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF/S SOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A LIKELY DRY START TO THE EXTENDED UNDER THE AEGIS OF THE STILL STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST SFC HIGH. THE STORM TRACK WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE PROTECTION BREAKS DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE AREA...BUOYED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY THANKS TO THE ENERGY ALOFT AND ANOTHER WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAID OUT FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. A SFC LOW SEEN BY THE ECMWF ASSOCIATED WITH THAT GREAT PLAINS TROUGH MAY PULL THE FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE STATE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY EVENTUALLY LESSENING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY WITH RENEWED THREATS THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE SFC LOW/S EXPECTED PROXIMITY AND ITS NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE NEW ECMWF IS SHOWING A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS TAPPED AND THAT MAY BRING ABOUT CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE WHILE TEMPERATURES ADHERE TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMS. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID GIVE IT MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. ALSO...MADE THEM DRIER ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BIT WETTER LATER FRIDAY. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SIGNIFICANT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 GOING TO START OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME FOG IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON MAY DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW ROBUST THE FOG IS TONIGHT AND HOW MUCH IMPACT IT MAY HAVE ON THE TAF SITES. FOR NOW...OPTING TO GO WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOST SITES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH FOG...EXCEPT AT KSJS...WHERE VISIBILITIES CRATERED LAST NIGHT. WILL PLAN TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE AGAIN AND LET EVENING SHIFT REEVALUATE IF FOG MAY BE A BIT LESS ROBUST THAN LAST NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...KAS

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