Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301148 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 748 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SUN BEGINS TO RISE. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ARE STILL REPORTING VIS BELOW 2 MILES. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO TAKE OUT FOG IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...SO LEFT IN FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. ALSO...RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY...MOVING NNE. ALSO UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION. ONCE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INGESTED INTO THE DATABASE...LOADED THESE INTO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 AFTER RAINS IMPACTED SECTIONS OF THE CWA YESTERDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE HAS LED TO DECENT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE SUN BEGINS TO RISE THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC CONUS WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS TROUGHING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFT WILL BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER DRIVER OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI...WILL REACH WESTERN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY. STILL FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD TRAVERSE WESTERN KY LATE TONIGHT...CENTRAL KY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF KY BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 0Z MONDAY. FOR TODAY...CONTINUED STRONG WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER HIGH HUMIDITY/WARM WEATHER DAY TO THE REGION...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY DON/T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME GOOD RAINERS AND DECENT LIGHTNING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE BEST FORCING OF THE INCOMING FRONT. BEGAN INCREASING POPS AGAIN BY 12Z SUNDAY AS SUN BEGINS TO INFLUENCE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ONCE MORE...PEAKING AS THE FRONT BEGINS PASSING OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING BETTER HAIL POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH MUCH MORE DRYING ALOFT AND DECENT CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE...BUT LI/S WILL DROP INTO THE -5 TO -6C RANGE IN SOME LOCATIONS...INDICATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT SOME DECENT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO POTENTIALLY TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST KY...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO SPC/S MARGINAL RISK OVER THIS SAME AREA FOR SUNDAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR. HOWEVER...DID NOTE THE LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE SHALLOW...WITH UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH HYDRO CONCERNS...UNLESS STORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SAME LOCATIONS MULTIPLE TIMES. WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY...TEMPERATURES COULD WARM WELL INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...AS WELL AS WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70 TO LOW 80 RANGE FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY /COOLEST IN THE WEST/. OVERALL...SUPERBLEND AND GFS WERE THE MODELS OF CHOICE DURING THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH MOST SHORT TERM MODELS SEEMED TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PRETTY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE OH VALLEY AREA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT DOES WASH OUT A BIT AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO BECOME TIED TO DIURNAL TRENDS BUT WILL KEEP POPS THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING COOLER AIR MASS. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND ALONG THE VA/KY BORDER AND SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THERE. THIS WILL BE THE CASE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAX CHANCE OCCURRING EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DID GO BELOW THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. BY THURSDAY...WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW...A WEAK WAVE OVERHEAD...AND THE MENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP FRO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD WILL STILL MAINTAIN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY CONVECTION. STILL KEPT CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION BUT DID NUDGE POPS BELOW A BIT DURING THE FEW DAYS WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OVERALL...BESIDES THE EXITING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NO DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A DEFINITE CHANCE OF PRECIP OR AT LEAST THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS IS SUCH THAT NOTHING ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS DISCERNIBLE. FOR THIS FACT...DID STAY RATHER CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ACROSS EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SO FAR HAD LITTLE IMPACT. GIVEN THAT THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPING STORMS IS UNKNOWN...CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE HOURS WHEN STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY EXPECTED. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND AS WE LOSE BEST INSTABILITY AND HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TAKING HOLD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ONCE MORE. UNLESS RAIN DIRECTLY AFFECTS A TAF SITE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG TO REMAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW

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