Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210802 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 302 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 The models are suggesting that most of eastern Kentucky should experience dry weather today, due to progressively southeasterly flow and the downslope warming and drying that will occur across the area as a result. It appears that the best moisture associated with an approaching weather system will remain just off to the south of our area today. This, combined with the downslope warming and therefore drying mentioned above, should be enough to keep precipitation at bay for all but our southernmost and easternmost counties today. After a brief lull, widespread rainfall is expected to move in from the south and southwest this evening through the end of the day on Sunday. An area of low pressure is forecast to move out of the southern Mississippi valley and across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight and tomorrow. As this system moves east, it is forecast to strengthen, and therefore slow down, as it moves across our area. The slow movement of this system, combined with a steady flow of warm moist air off the Gulf of Mexico, will lead to widespread rain showers across eastern Kentucky to finish out the weekend. We may even see a few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow due to the strength of the passing low and the presence of weak elevated instability. Rain could be locally heavy at times. Temperatures will remain well above normal this weekend, with highs expected to top out in the mid to upper 60s today, and the lower 60s on Sunday. Overnight lows should be in the lower 50s. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will be on tap as well. Winds should generally be out of the south or southeast at around 5 mph during the period .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 347 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2017 The extended forecast period begins on Sunday with a continued active pattern in place across the CONUS. On Sunday, a strong upper low crosses into the lower MS valley as it travels along the Gulf Coast before lifting NE into the Appalachians. Current track takes the heaviest precip along the spine of the Appalachians and into the headwaters of eastern Kentucky. Models have been pretty consistent on this track for the past few runs. In fact, as this feature develops and lifts north, instability will still be present continuing to support convection, mainly slight chance, through the day on Sunday. As this feature exits Tuesday morning and colder air filters in behind it, some of the exiting showers will change to a rain and snow mix Tuesday morning on top of the higher elevations but with very little accumulation expected. Heading into midweek next week, the next wave tracks across the central Plains and into the Midwest bringing a round of light showers into eastern Kentucky. Both the GFS and Euro agree with a drying trend to this feature as QPF amounts will likely be less than a tenth of rainfall for Wednesday and Wednesday night. However, following this feature will be a more seasonal airmass filtering into the area by Thursday and Friday. This will lead to a return of northwest flow and a period of snow showers possible Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Overall, a trend to more normal temperatures is expected towards the end of next week if not cooler than normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 VFR conditions are expected to prevail during most of the upcoming TAF period. Middle and high level cloud cover will continue to overspread the area tonight and most of Saturday, as a weather system approaches from the southwest. Visibilities should also remain largely unhindered as winds back south/southeasterly and the mid and high clouds keep radiational cooling at bay. Winds look to remain near or below 5 knots as clouds increase and lower Saturday ahead of the next round of rainfall, likely arriving later Saturday into Sunday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...AR

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