Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 172038 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 438 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 438 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 A rather strong storm system near the upper Great Lakes was bringing a flow of warm and humid air to the area ahead of a cold front today. An upper level wave was also approaching from the west. This has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The most significant area of showers and thunderstorms was over southern OH and northern KY late this afternoon. Other storms tailed southwestward int western KY. The most significant winds aloft were also located to our north, and that is where the greatest threat of severe weather is. Models suggest that the precip developing over northwest and western KY will progress into our area tonight, but be on the decline as it moves through late tonight. The actual cold frontal passage and change in air mass is not expected until Friday, and additional showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out ahead of the front on Friday, especially in southeast KY where the front will arrive the latest. Friday night the entire area should be dry as surface ridging builds in from the west. The drier air mass should also allow for somewhat cooler lows. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 343 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 The period will begin with the upper level trough axis swinging across the Ohio Valley on Saturday. After this heights rise and pattern flattens through Tuesday before another trough digs into the eastern US to round out the period. The models are in decent overall agreement upper level wise through the long term period. This initial trough will bring a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to the far north Saturday afternoon. Then a break will come for late Saturday into early Monday. There remains some question on what will develop for Monday and right now there is only a small chance of showers and thunderstorms north of the Mountain Parkway in the afternoon. However, this is really only showing in one model solution and therefore confidence remains low. Then the next trough will approach by Tuesday and bring best chances of showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This trough will swing east and push a cold front through the region, with chances lessening through the day on Thursday. That said, there is some disagreement on how much the front pushes through in the guidance and this could lead to changes in the timing and coverage on Thursday. Temperature through the period will remain near to above average for this time of year.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 Scattered showers/thunderstorms were ongoing over the eastern and southeastern portions of the forecast area at the start of the period. Very localized IFR conditions were likely present in the heavier rain. Elsewhere, conditions were VFR. The current precip will likely slowly exit to the east late this afternoon and early evening. However, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight, especially in the northern part of the area between about 03z and 09z. IFR conditions due largely to low ceilings are then expected to develop for most locations overnight and persist into Friday morning. VFR should return toward the end of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.