Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300815 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 334 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017 An area of low pressure will occlude today as it tracks into the western great lakes. The gradient will continue to tighten up across eastern Kentucky as the occluded front to our west moves towards our region. This will lead to some gusty winds developing across the area today. Some gusts up to 25 mph will be possible today, especially in the bluegrass region, extending southward into our broad valleys in the southwest. Ridgetops will also get gusty. South/southeast flow will lead to downsloping conditions across the area today. With this flow strengthening during the day, any rogue showers/storms should be held at bay today as dewpoints mix down into the 50s. High temperatures will once again surge into the mid to upper 80s, setting the stage for possible record highs for the second day in a row. Hi-res model guidance continues to show some activity trying to threaten the area from the west through the day, but all have it weakening before it makes it into the area, thanks to the drier air entrenched over the area and the lack of forcing over the area. This all changes tonight as that occluded front works east into eastern Kentucky late tonight into Monday morning. With PW`s up around 1.60 there will be some decent rainfall potential in our southwest counties extending up into the bluegrass region. This is especially true if any convection holds together and makes into the area. Instability is limited over our area late tonight and Monday morning, so we should see a gradually diminishing trend in thunder chances as the precipitation moves east. As the front shears out over us and encounters the drier air in the east, we may see precipitation start to break up as well leading to substantially less rainfall in the far east and southeast. Winds will be the main story late tonight and Monday as winds continue to increase tonight ahead of the approaching front. The low level will reach 50 to 60 knots late tonight. This will likely impact ridges above 2kft late tonight with some strong winds developing. As the front passes early Monday morning, we should see a period of decent mixing as the dry slot moves in overhead and skies clear off. This will likely yield wind gusts up to 35 or 40 mph through the morning and afternoon hours. While some weakening of the winds is expected into the evening, they should remain gusting to at least 30 mph. A wind advisory may be needed for this period, but will hold off tonight and let the dayshift evaluate the need for one since its only 3rd period right now. Temperatures will take a tumble behind the front Monday morning, but should recover into the upper 60s to lower 70s within the dry slot tomorrow. It does look like some stratocu may try to work into the area later in the day as it overtakes the dry slot. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 357 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017 Breezy southwest winds will continue Monday night as the above mentioned stacked low lifts across the Great Lakes. Surface ridging across the gulf coast will keep an appreciable pressure gradient in place across eastern Kentucky until later Tuesday afternoon as the low moves farther north. Quasi-zonal flow will bring warmer low- mid level temperatures back, but any substantial warmup will be dampened by the presence of mid-upper cyclonic flow remaining from Hudson Bay into the Ohio Valley. Highs look to top out in the low-mid 70s. A cooler and wet end to the week appears to be in store as an upper wave sliding across the Great Plains digs into the Missouri Valley and closes off. Cold air advection spilling into this low/trough combined with strong thermal ridging producing anticyclonic flow from the Gulf of California into the Canadian Prairies will make for quite an amplified pattern across the United States. While rain chances will increase Wednesday downstream of this system, shower and thunderstorm chances will drastically increase into Thursday as a warm front lifts north. While thunder chances will decrease later Thursday in a worked over airmass, bonafide rain chances will continue through Friday as a cold front swings through on the backside of the departing upper low. Still some uncertainty as to how quickly this low will push northeast, allowing dry northwest flow to materialize locally with upper ridging pushing east into the nation`s midsection. This will keep below normal temperatures in the offing through at least Saturday, with the approaching ridge bringing warmer readings by late weekend.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds out of the south will turn gusty by late morning and through the afternoon hours on Sunday. Wind gusts up to 25 knots are likely at times. These winds will likely stay up tonight as a frontal boundary will approach the area by 06z. Thus, expect a prolonged period of strong winds across the area. The front will pass late Sunday night into early Monday morning with some showers moving on through. We could see winds behind the front even stronger, with gusts up to 35 knots possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...KAS

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