Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210601 AAC
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
201 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

An area of showers in advance of an approaching cold front and
mid level shortwave trough is moving from Central KY into Eastern
KY. These showers are outflowing a bit to the south with the
southern edge filling in a bit. A few in cloud lightning strikes
have been noted over the past hour or two in Central KY, but these
are very few and far between. In fact, none have been indicated
during the last hour. Pops have been fine tuned a bit based on the
radar trends generally timing the highest pops of around 70 to 80
percent as the area of showers moves east. Thunderstorm coverage
has been reduced to just isolated as well. The cold front should
move into the northwest part of the area after sunrise and move
across the area during the day on Sunday. The front should depart
the VA border counties by mid to late afternoon. In advance of the
front, temperatures should move very little overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

The forecast remains on track so far tonight. Numerous showers and
and storms will continue to move across eastern Kentucky
overnight, as a cold front pushes eastward towards the area. New
showers and storms should continue to form along and just ahead of
the front, further justifying keeping high PoPs in the forecast
for the rest of tonight. Locally heavy rainfall, and perhaps a few
strong wind gusts, will be possible with the strong storms.
Ingested the latest obs data into the hourly forecast grids to
establish new trends. No further changes to the forecast were
deemed necessary at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

The forecast has been on track so far this evening per the latest
radar trends. Numerous showers and storms will continue to move
across the area tonight and tomorrow, as a cold front approaches
from our west. Clusters and areas of showers and storms will be
the norm for the next several hours, as an upper level disturbance
moves by overhead. Later this evening, however, lines of showers
and storms are expected as the cold front moves closer to us and
eventually through the area. Other than ingesting the latest obs
data into the hourly forecast to set new trends, no changes were
made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 331 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

A surface low is deepening across eastern Wisconsin, as a more
vigorous short wave trough spirals into the western Great Lakes
region. The surface cold front is aligned from northwest Indiana,
to southern Illinois, and eventually down across eastern
Arkansas. Plenty of convection is occurring well ahead of the cold
front, with abundant moisture advecting into the Mississippi
Valley with falling heights aloft.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to fill in
across eastern Kentucky through tonight as the cold front
and upper level trough axis approaches from the northwest. This
front will be fairly progressive; however, some training of
storms is possible, yielding a locally heavy rainfall threat.
Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the more intense storms
and will continue to highlight these threats in the HWO.

The front will gradually move through and exit eastern Kentucky
Sunday morning. Some of the model guidance suggests a slower exit,
along with some lingering upper level support. Have slowed down
the exit just a touch based on this suggestion. Low level moisture
looks to exit quickly in the afternoon, allowing for some late
day clearing.

Mostly clear skies will reign Sunday night, as high pressure
builds in from the west. Some patchy fog will form in the
valleys, with lows in the mid to upper 50s, readings we haven`t
seen in several weeks.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

The long term portion of the forecast will begin with surface high
pressure over the area, with a mild dry air mass in place. The
surface high will slide to the east, and mid level heights will rise
through mid week. This will result in gradually warming temperatures
and a gradual increase in surface dewpoints and deeper layer
moisture as well. With the return flow, there will be a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Lake Cumberland area on
Wednesday. By the end of the week an approaching cold front will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the entire area. At
the start of the period temperatures will be below normal, but then
climb to above normal readings in advance of the late week cold
front, with near normal temperatures after the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs and or vis is currently reported across
the region. The lowest CIGS are generally ahead of an area of
showers moving from Central into Eastern KY. Mainly MVFR with some
IFR on the ridges should prevail in these. Some lowering to
somewhat more widespread IFR for a couple of hours in advance of
and near the front will be possible until drier air advects in in
the lower levels. 12Z to 18Z, improvements through MVFR and into
VFR should occur in the northwest part of the area including SYM.
Elsewhere, after 16Z, CIGS should be improving through MVFR with
VFR in all areas by 22Z to 23Z. Southwest winds less than 10KT
will become more W and NW behind the front, starting first in the
NW by 10Z to 12Z and then across the remainder of the area through
19Z.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JP



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