Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161146 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
646 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

Forecast on track so far this morning. Mostly cloudy skies will
persist through late this morning before steadily tapering off to
partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions by the end of the day.
The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast to establish
new trends. No other changes to the forecast were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

A ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the region
for the next few days, bringing warm and dry weather to eastern
Kentucky. Scattered to broken low and middle level clouds will
move across the today, as a northwesterly flow aloft, associated
with a large area of low pressure aloft currently centered over
New England, sends a surge of moisture off the western Great Lakes
across the area. The clouds should scatter out by late today. We
should see periods of partly to mostly cloudy skies through out
the day. The partly cloudy skies will likely persist through
Friday morning, before the New England low finally pulls off to
the east, taking its cloud cover with it. We should see mostly
clear skies and light winds across the area on Friday.
Temperatures will be running above normal today and tomorrow,
with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s today, and in the
lower 60s on Friday. Tonights lows will vary quite a bit between
ridges and valleys, as light winds, mostly clear skies, and dry
conditions set up across the area. Our valleys are expected to
fall into the upper 20s, while the surrounding ridges only drop
into the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

The models are in good agreement with an amplified but progressive
long wave pattern to remain in place across the CONUS through the
period. Smaller scale features are fairly well agreed upon through
the weekend, and then confidence decreases a bit more into next
week, with timing and evolution differences.

Well above normal temperatures will continue to be the main weather
highlight through the extended. Highs will average in the 60s
throughout the period, with the warmest temperatures occurring
early next week, when some places may approach the 70 degree
mark. Lows will generally average in the 40s, although did
undercut the blended lows for Friday night, as valleys look to
decouple into the 30s, with light southwesterly flow in place, and
a mostly clear night on tap.

Rain chances will increase Saturday into Saturday night as an upper
level low moves from the Arklatex region to the TN/KY border. Rain
showers will be exiting by Sunday morning, as the system pulls away
to the east. Upper level ridging will then take hold into early next
week, before another system approaches for Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There is disagreement with how much moisture will be
drawn in from the main feature, another upper level low that will be
passing east across the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is a little more
progressive, and also shows more influence from the northern stream,
while the ECMWF remains more detached and slower. Given this
uncertainty, the POPs were limited to 30 to 40% through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

BKN to OVC cloud cover is expected at LOZ and SME through
late this morning, and through late this afternoon at JKL, SYM,
and SJS. The clouds should scatter out this evening with SCT to
FEW clouds overnight. Winds will be generally out of the
southwest at 3 to 5 mph early this morning, and will be increasing
to 5 to 10 mph by early this afternoon.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR



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