Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 112049
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
349 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 349 PM EST THU JAN 11 2018

...Flood Watch tonight in the east...

With both the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS in agreement with a band of
heavier rain setting up across far eastern KY tonight there is
concern for some local flooding. The NAM generates as much as 2.1
inches with the GFS around 1.6 inches. The 12Z ECMWF is lighter
with the heaviest amounts near 1 inch. Model generated
precipitable water in excess of 99% to record levels is possible
tonight. The 2 inch soil depth temperature at the Breathitt
County mesonet was 37 and at 4 inches was still 33 this afternoon.
Concerned that some hollows that typically don`t see any sun may
still have some frozen ground, and based on observations there is
still ice clinging to cliffs in the colder hollows. Our frost
depth earlier this week here at the office was 10 inches but it is
all thawed now, but again am concerned about hollows that may
still have mainly frozen ground so run off could be maximized.
The flood watch was issued earlier today and will continue with
the watch which is in good agreement with the watch for Charleston
WV`s area as well including their northeast KY counties.

...Winter Weather Advisory begins Friday afternoon and continues
through Friday night for entire forecast area...

A complicated forecast for Friday and Friday night with the winter
weather that will impact the area. As is typical there have been
various model differences from model to model and from run to run
with any specific model. However, ensemble blends have been more
stable. The SREF snow amounts have been remarkably stable for
several runs and our current forecast snow amounts are in good
agreement with the 15Z SREF. This results in 1 to 3 inch snow
totals with the highest amounts in the northwest part of the
forecast area and lowest amounts in the south and southeast. The
potential freezing rain amounts have been more challenging and
there has been less model agreement there. Have followed the CR
blended approach to generate precipitation types from Friday
afternoon into Friday night. This resulted in some very light ice
amounts, under 0.1 inch. Considerable collaboration occurred with
neighboring WFOs and WPC regarding the headlines needed for this
event. Based on our collaborated forecast and collaborated messaging
it was determined that a winter weather advisory would best
handle the current forecast. With rapidly falling temperatures
Friday night icy roads will be the main impact, with hazardous
travel expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EST THU JAN 11 2018

Cold weather looks to settle back into the region this weekend
behind the exiting storm system. Some light snow showers or
flurries could hang on well into Saturday before clouds start to
break up. High pressure will build in on Sunday and could set up a
cold Sunday night. Models coming into better agreement on a
clipper system for next Monday/Monday night and could bring
another round of light snow to the area. In the wake of the
clipper the cold air will be reinforced into the middle of next
week and some upslope snow showers could linger into the middle of
the week. It does look like the trough will start to lift out
later next week with a warming trend into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU JAN 11 2018

Conditions will deteriorate from VFR this afternoon to IFR or
lower by the end of the TAF forecast period. An initial wave of
low pressure will bring showers to much of the area today into
tonight, with the focus of showers over the eastern part of the
area tonight. As a cold front pushes towards the area late
tonight and early Friday rain will become more widespread and
ceilings will lower. South winds will gust to around 15 knots in a
few spots this afternoon. On Friday the cold front will work its
way across the area with winds shifting to the west in the
afternoon. Looking beyond the TAF forecast period rain will change
to snow Friday night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-
111-114-116.

Flood Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Friday morning
for KYZ088-104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
for KYZ088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SBH



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