Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 021924
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.

THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATELY WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO GO WITH A
DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A FEW DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED NORMAL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR AND
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STORMY TAF PERIOD OVERALL. THIS
AFTERNOON MANY OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SITES ARE SEEING LIFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SITES...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THAT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM THE CONCERN WOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF
THIS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE DID KEEP TAFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT VCTS/VCSH AT THIS POINT. ALSO SEEM REASONABLE THAT
FOG AND LOWER CEILING WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
WITH STORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ



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