Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 281200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING...WITH A BIT OF VIRGA BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BLENDING TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE VIRGA IS FALLING
INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
DRY AT THIS POINT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP
TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WARRANTS A POP ABOVE 10 PERCENT.
WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS AS TIME GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AFTER DAYS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE CONSENSUS
NOW IS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL LIKELY NOT BE OVERCOME BY TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA. MODELS DO PAINT
ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
SOME SHOWERS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB...WITH NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AND ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE. REVISED POPS WILL PEAK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AT ONLY 10 PERCENT IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES TO NEAR
40 PERCENT BY THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODEST WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. WITH NO SURGE OF COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. GIVEN THE
MODELS DECENT AGREEMENT...POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SPED UP THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL COME THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS A FAST MOVER...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLDER SURGE OF
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 1C BY SUNDAY MORNING. SAFE TO SAY IF THE
MODELS HOLD ON THIS COLD AIR...THIS WOULD BE THE COOLEST PERIOD WE
HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS FALL. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT FROST/FREEZE CONCERN GIVEN WE MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME
LOSING THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AS WE GET
CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOG AFFECTING DEEP VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
AREA. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE
TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED ONCE
EARLY MORNING FOG IS GONE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL






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