Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190439
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1239 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAD REPORTS OF DENSE FOG MOST OF THE WAY FROM CLAY CITY TO
JACKSON. AT SIGNS POINT TO A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT TONIGHT THAT IS
WORSE THAN THE NORMAL AUGUST VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LOWERED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. ALSO TOOK OUT THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER OUT AS NONE HAS DEVELOPED ALL DAY AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SUPPORTING THEIR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. THE ONLY
THUNDER IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A WEAK FRONT IS STILL
QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME FAIRLY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO WV...TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER LIFT WITH IT. A WEST EAST ORIENTED QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY WAS MOVING EAST ALONG THE TN MS
BORDER. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS KY WILL
NECESSITATE CONTINUING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE
BEST RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KY TONIGHT.

WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WILL INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THIS VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THE SURFACE A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN KY ON TUESDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IL
AND INDIANA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND WILL INTRODUCE
LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
UPPER/MID LEVEL GREAT LAKES LOW WILL MAKE A BEE LINE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE BURGEONING RIDGE TO OUR WEST
WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO
OUR NORTHEAST DURING ITS MARCH TO THE COAST AND DRAG A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS ENERGY ROUNDS ITS TOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...THE BY THEN
QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY AS
IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THUS
WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE AUGMENTED BY ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF TRUE SUMMER LIKE
WEATHER AS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS DESPITE THE INCREASED
HUMIDITY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT OF RAIN DECREASES BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT...BUT
THE POTENTIAL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY REMOVED. IN ADDITION...SHOULD THE
RIDGE EXERT A STRONGER INFLUENCE BY SHIFTING JUST A BIT MORE EAST WE
MAY BE IN FOR EVEN HOTTER WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE 0Z ECMWF
ADVERTISING H850 TEMPS UP AROUND 22C TO 24C...THE POSSIBLY EXISTS
THAT WE MIGHT SEE SOME OF OUR HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS
FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL DURING THE PRIOR DAY HAS LEFT
A MOIST AND VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE ISOLATED. HEADING INTO THE
DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
KSYM MAY NEED A VCTS MENTION AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND
DECKS AROUND 5 KFT AFTER THE FOG LIFTS TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






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