Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270554 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 154 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 154 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017 HRRR/RAP are trending towards thunder being limited to the southern half of the area as instability remains limited across the north and east. This is in line with current trends in convection upstream as the lightning activity has been retreated southward across western Kentucky. Also, with models fairly consistent on measurable rainfall occurring this morning, increased pops to categorical to cover the rain this morning. Also tweaked temperatures to reflect higher temperatures on the ridges and to bring in a quick temperature drop to the upper 50s as the rain sets in this morning. Looks like that rain will push towards I-75 by 8 am this morning, then across the rest of the area by 11 am. Rain should come to an end by early afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 1054 PM EDT WED APR 26 2017 The latest HRRR and other CAMs remain in decent alignment with latest radar trends. These models still bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms into the Lake Cumberland region by 11Z to 12Z. This line could even slow down some, as the upper level trough does take on a more negative tilt. The next issue tonight will be valley temperatures, and did opt to lower from previous forecast given the latest trends. However, it will be tricky to time the actual low given the cloud cover moving into the region. Overall think we could still be looking at a 10 degree split from the ridges to the valleys. Otherwise, gravitated grids to latest obs and trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT WED APR 26 2017 The short term portion of the forecast will feature above normal temperatures and a period of showers and storms on Thursday. A fast moving cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during the day on Thursday. The precipitation should begin moving into our southwestern and western counties early Thursday morning, and should be exiting the area early Thursday evening. The latest model data is suggesting that instability should be elevated across the region, which would help mitigate any threat of severe weather. However, wind decent wind shear may exist tomorrow while the front is passing through, so an isolated severe storm with damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out at this time. With precipitation and extensive expected to spread across the area tomorrow, temperatures will not be able to warm nearly as much as they have the past couple of days, but we should still highs max out in the low to mid 70s, which is still slightly above normal for this time of year. Low temperatures the next two nights should be in the 50s and 60s tonight, and in the 50s tomorrow night. Southerly winds will begin to pick up and become gusty overnight and tomorrow, as the front approaches and the regional pressure gradient strengthens. Isolated gusts of 15 to 20 mph cannot be ruled out. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM EDT WED APR 26 2017 Southwest flow will be in place aloft across eastern Kentucky Friday through the weekend with ridging off the southeast coast while a deep trough gets carved out over the central CONUS. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary located initially along the Ohio River will sag south into the area Friday night. After a dry and warm day on Friday, shower/thunderstorm chances increase overnight Friday night, especially over the Bluegrass and Gateway regions which will lie closest to the boundary. Models indicate decreasing instability and shear parameters during the night so severe weather is not a major concern. Forecast models lift the warm front to our north Saturday into Sunday placing our area firmly in the warm sector and likely capped from much if any convective development, although cannot rule out a shower or storm completely. Temperatures will warm well into the 80s both days, along with dewpoints in the 60s, making it feel very summer-like. Showers/storm chances then increase quickly Sunday night into Monday morning as the potent storm system wraps up and tracks into the Great Lakes, forcing a cold front across the local area. Models show quite the wind field accompanying the frontal passage so despite unfavorable timing and insignificant instability, will have to monitor this system closely for a strong wind threat as the front passes through. The front quickly clears the area on Monday leaving behind a cooler, less humid airmass. After a brief respite Monday night and Tuesday, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate another shot at showers developing by the middle of next week as an open wave drops into the central CONUS, renewing southwest flow aloft over our area. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017 Low level wind shear will continue just ahead of an approaching cold front overnight. As the front moves on through, a complex of showers and a few thunderstorms will push east across the area. In the wake of this activity and the front, we may see a brief period of MVFR cigs. These MVFR cigs will return to VFR this afternoon with VFR conditions remaining for the rest of the TAF forecast period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...KAS

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