Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250710 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TONIGHT AND LED TO A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ON THE RIDGES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS FALLING TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS WE ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS FOG SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE COLD SPOTS FROM PICKING UP ANY FROST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AWAY FROM RIVERS... CREEKS...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL FLATTEN OUT A SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR DURING THIS TRANSITION BEFORE TICKING UP IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE ON SUNDAY AS SOME RIDGING OOZES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK ENERGY PASSING OVER EAST KENTUCKY TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WX WISE. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS SANDWICHING A QUIET NIGHT. A COLD DRY FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM AS TODAY...OR A TAD WARMER...EVEN POST FRONTAL OWING TO A RETURN OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WITH THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...WERE USED AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE...AT LEAST MINOR...RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...MAKING THE CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS...ALL INVOLVING A COLDER AIRMASS. THE 00Z ECMWF CERTAINLY DID NOT MAKE THINGS ANY EASIER AS IT NOW HAS A CUT OFF LOW OVER TENNESSEE BY WEEKS END. CLEARLY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE AGREED UPON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS AS VALLEYS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE RIDGES STAY A TAD MILDER WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW 50S. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WARMING TO AROUND 80 BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE RETURN AND HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS LOWER...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AS WE REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS TIME. GIVEN THE FASTER POSSIBILITY...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND BROUGHT SOME LOWER POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME RAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MEAGER INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW AGREEING THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE POINT WHERE MODELS END UP ALL OVER THE PLACE. FOR NOW...OPTING TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD DRY...BUT GIVEN THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...WE MAY NEED MORE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IF A WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THIS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IF A DRIER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD FROST COVERAGE AND PERHAPS A FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. CERTAINLY THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK BACK REGARDING NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST. FOR NOW...OPTING TO HEDGE ON TEMPERATURES AND NOT GO WITH EITHER EXTREME AND STAY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MODELS CAN REACH BETTER AGREEMENT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LONG THE RIVERS. SOME OF THIS HAS CREPT INTO SME BRIEFLY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES WHERE THE T-TD SPREAD IS GREATER. DURING THE DAY...TOMORROW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH FIRST CIRRUS THEN SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY EVENING...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. VIRGA OR A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES WILL BE AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD NOT AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF

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