Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 192055 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 355 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 203 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017 Temps are still slow to climb. Showers are also moving in a little bit faster than what was expected. In light of this have moved isolated/scattered showers northeast a bit faster, and have knocked a couple degrees off the forecast max temp. UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017 Temps and dew points have been a little slow to rise this morning compared to the inherited forecast, and have updated the temperature curve in the forecast grids. Left the forecast highs alone at this point, to see if we catch up during the day. | UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017 Issued a fresh set of grids mainly to remove the fog this morning and also to fine tune the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers - along with an updated set of zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017 08z sfc analysis shows an area of high pressure moving through the Ohio Valley while a warm front is moving northeast toward the area from the Lower Mississippi Valley. High clouds have spread into the area ahead of this front. These clouds have had varying thickness as they moved overhead this night and during the thinner times the eastern valleys have managed to get colder than the rest of the area. As such, readings range from the lower 40s in the far south to the lower 30s in those colder spots. Meanwhile, dewpoints are nearly matching temperatures keeping the RH high this night while winds are light. So far, though, the fog has not been too bad out there per web cams and observations. The models are in pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast leading to above average confidence in their blended solution. They all depict a sharp ridge moving quickly through the region ahead of a closed low strengthening over the High Plains today. This places eastern Kentucky in deep and persistent southwest flow with energy packets passing over the state ahead of the core batch that pivots through around 12z Friday. Heights then rise further over Kentucky through the day Friday while troughing remains dominant over the Plains and western portion of the country and strong ridging resumes through the Southeast. Given the fairly small model spread during the short term will favor a general blend along with a lean toward the HRRR in the near term. Sensible weather will feature another mild January day as the warm front lifts into the area. The showers that will accompany this gradually work east into this part of the state through the late afternoon and early evening hours. This will lead to soaking rains for most of the area tonight with amounts generally between a half and three quarters of an inch - though places in the far east may see little more than a quarter of an inch total. Will keep thunder out of the forecast for now on account of the lack of instability, though cannot completely rule it out given the strengthening of the upper level system. Another very warm January day can be expected Friday as the low`s track will keep winds southerly and prevent any cold air from moving into the state even as the showers depart to the northeast and we start to dry out. Record temperatures will be within reach Friday - 66 degrees at both JKL and LOZ. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for most elements through the short term portion of the forecast - making only minor adjustments to raise temperatures today and Friday. Also, adjusted PoPs in the near term to allow the pcpn chances to spread in a tad quicker this afternoon nearer the Tennessee and Virginia border. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017 The extended forecast period begins on Saturday with a continued active and somewhat progressive pattern through the weekend and into next week. The first feature of the extended will eject northeast from the lower MS valley and into the southern Appalachians bringing light rainfall into eastern Kentucky. As the next feature continues to lift north through the area, some decent instability will advect into the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. In fact, models and SPC show at least a slight chance for general thunder in the area. Will stay with collaboration with neighboring forecasters and SPC and keep thunder in the forecast through the weekend. In addition, the unseasonal airmass advecting into the area will allow for temperatures soaring into the upper 60s for highs across eastern Kentucky, possibly breaking a few records on Saturday and while not as quite as warm on Sunday, still a good 20 to 23 degrees above normal. Heading into Monday, another upper low dives into the lower MS valley before ejecting east and up along the lee side of the Appalachian Mountains bringing additional rain into eastern Kentucky. Expecting an additional half an inch with this rainfall to impact the far eastern Kentucky areas. As this feature exits, colder air filtering in behind may allow for rain to change to a mix of rain and snow on top of Black mountain on Monday night. After a break in the weather on Tuesday, another bout of southerly flow will allow high temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will climb near 60 degrees again before another bout of rainfall moves into the area late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. As the front passes through late Wednesday night, this will begin an overall cooling trend through Wednesday night and beyond Day 7. In summary, much of the extended remains warm and wet with the consensus being around a couple inches of rain through eastern Kentucky but the GFS is quite a bit wetter than the Euro on the Sunday night into Monday system. The consensus is a bit less but something to keep in mind heading into next week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017 Showers have started to move into the region from the southwest, and have resulted in localized mvfr visibility near the TN border at the start of the period. Elsewhere, conditions were VFR, but ceilings were showing an overall lowering trend. The increasing clouds and showers were due to a warm front approaching. Showers will overspread the rest of the region this afternoon and tonight. MVFR conditions (and perhaps some IFR in the west) will also spread northeast over more of the JKL forecast area, but the advance will be slowed over the far eastern part of Kentucky due to low level downslope wind flow. Showers will taper off with passage of the warm front from southwest to northeast overnight and early Friday morning. However, downslope flow in the east will also be lost with passage of the front, and all areas can expect MVFR conditions on Friday morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...HAL

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