Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190807 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 407 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER. ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH 20Z. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...JP

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