Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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680 FXUS63 KJKL 151237 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 737 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 737 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017 Fine-tuned the hourly temperatures and dew points through the morning, otherwise the forecast remains on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 353 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017 Surface high pressure is currently nosed in across the Ohio Valley, with weaker low pressure centered across Lake Superior. Aloft, a trough axis is aligned from the western Great Lakes down to the Desert Southwest. Low level clouds have been persistent across eastern Kentucky overnight, as moisture continues to be trapped at the 925-850mb layer. The trough axis will move southeast across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys today. Heights will then recover aloft tonight into Saturday, as a ridge axis sharpens up across the Mississippi Valley. Low clouds will be hanging around through the morning across most of the area, before some thinning occurs in the afternoon. This will limit the diurnal rise once again, with highs generally in the mid to upper 30s, with perhaps a few 40 degree readings, where places start out milder. Clouds will be on the decrease tonight into Saturday, as the ridge builds in from our west. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 20s in valley locations, to the upper 20s on the ridges under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Saturday will feature a mostly sunny day, with temperatures rebounding to around the 50 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017 The period begins Saturday night with high pressure to our southeast and ridging aloft. Despite the gradient from approaching system to the southeast think the eastern valleys will decouple early and lead to at least a 5 degree ridge/valley split Saturday night. Then we see a southern stream shortwave ride northeast out of Texas and this will bring overrunning precipitation toward the area by Sunday. We continue to see models slowing the progression of this system and therefore have slowed this down further from previous forecast. There was talk of mix precipitation in previous forecast, but given the slower progression this has been removed. The models have also trended drier, as the upper level wave dampens overtime and 850mb jet is fairly weak overall. The better low level jet will be strongest in the afternoon on Sunday leading to more confidence for later onset. We remain in the southwest flow regime through early next week and therefore keep small chances of precipitation each day with lowest POP day being Monday. The next best chance of rain showers will be Tuesday, with the help of a jet streak and shortwave aloft. The flow aloft does flatten out and a surface high progresses east out of the Central Plains to round out the period. This will lead to cooler nights and better shots of seeing ridge/valley splits. Overall afternoon high temperatures will be near to above normal and low temperatures near to above normal. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 737 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017 A stratocu deck hovering at around 3k feet agl will hang around through the morning hours, before raising up and gradually thinning out through the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter. Light and variable winds through the late morning, will become westerly at 5 to 10 kts, with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts at times, during the afternoon. Winds will diminish to 5 kts or less by dusk.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.