Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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150 FXUS63 KJKL 141613 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1113 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017 Wind gusts continue to trend downward in magnitude with peak values currently in the 10-15 mph range. Diminishing winds will continue as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley, also promoting the slow mixing/lifting of low clouds through the afternoon. Nonetheless, temperatures will be largely limited to the 30s this afternoon with perhaps a few locales along the Tennessee border reaching 40 degrees in a post-frontal airmass. UPDATE Issued at 731 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017 The cold front has made its way southeast of the Commonwealth. The gusty winds will continue to diminish through the mid-morning hours, with temperatures bottoming out around the same time. Have freshened up the hourly temperatures to reflect the continued drop through around 10 am, before nudging back upward through the rest of the afternoon. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 335 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017 A quick-moving area of surface low pressure has made its way into western PA. The attendant cold front is aligned southeast of a line from KSYM to KGLW. Winds have been gusty across eastern Kentucky into the overnight, with speeds ranging from 25 to 35 mph at times. Currently, most temperatures range from upper 30s and lower 40s near the Bluegrass, to the mid 40s out ahead of the surface boundary. Aloft, an amplified pattern remains in place, with northwest flow guiding plenty of short wave energy, generally along and north of the Mason-Dixon Line. For eastern Kentucky, yet another reinforcing shot of colder air will be the main story across the area for the short term. Temperatures will bottom out through the mid-morning hours, as readings fall off behind the frontal passage. Winds will also be on the decrease through the morning, as the surface low pulls further away. A soft diurnal rise will occur today, amidst plenty of low and mid-level cloud cover. Afternoon highs will range from the mid to upper 30s for most locations, with perhaps a few 40 degree readings southwest of I-75, where clouds will be thinner. Lower clouds will diminish into this evening, as drier air advects in; however, mid-level clouds will continue aloft, as a short wave trough moves through the Ohio Valley. The clouds will keep the low temperatures from achieving readings similar to yesterday morning. A few upper teens look possible southwest of I-75, again where clouds will be a bit thinner, with generally lower 20s expected elsewhere. Friday will see decreasing clouds, as the short wave trough exits off to our east. Highs will be similar to today, generally between 35 and 40 degrees, with locations in the north perhaps a degree or so warmer compared to today. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 335 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017 The latest model data is showing two periods of active weather in the extended. The first period of active weather looks to be the period from Sunday morning through early Monday night. Although some minor timing differences exist, the models in general have a large trough of low pressure aloft moving down the west coast of the CONUS Saturday night into Sunday. As this trough moves into the southwestern CONUS, a smaller scale trough of low pressure is progged to form over the southern Plains Saturday night as well. This second area of low pressure is what will likely be our weather maker Sunday and Monday, as it moves through the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions. There could be a brief period of rain and snow Sunday morning, before temperatures are able to rise above freezing across the area. After that, rain is expected across eastern Kentucky through the day on Monday. There may also be a brief period of rain/snow mix along and north of I64 late Sunday night, as a bit of colder air may filter into that area. The overall model guidance has come in slower with the system for Sunday, and the forecast will reflect that. A much weaker and faster moving area of low pressure is then forecast to move up from the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valley regions late Monday night and Tuesday. This system could bring a bit of rain to eastern Kentucky from late Monday night through early Tuesday evening. After that, the rest of the week looks to be high and dry, as a large ridge of high pressure is progged to settle over the eastern portion of the CONUS. Daytime highs should generally be in the 40s and 50s, with nightly lows mostly in the 30s expected. Friday night looks to be the exception at this time, with lows in the 20s forecast for that period, as partly cloudy skies and light winds should allow for good radiational cooling. A few of our eastern valley locations may also bottom out in the upper 20s Saturday night before the main push of cloud cover is able to envelope the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 731 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017 A cold front has exited into TN/VA, with MVFR clouds hanging on for a few more hours in the wake of its departure. Ceilings will then raise up to 3-5k feet agl. Low level clouds will break up through this afternoon, with at least some mid-level clouds hanging around through the rest of the period. Northwest winds of around 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts, will also diminish to 5 to 10 kts after 15z. Winds will then become light and variable after dusk. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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