Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291144 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 744 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO MATCH UP WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD... WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE...WITH HIGHER BASED CU DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO THE UPPER 60S ON THE RIDGETOPS. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITHIN A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRUNG OUT BACK TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST...WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING THE CAP. FURTHER EAST...IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST CONVECTION AT BAY...BESIDES A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE GULF COAST UPPER LEVEL WILL ALSO GET PULLED NORTH...HELPING TO REINFORCE AT LEAST A WEAKER CAP ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. THICKER CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A WEAKENING AND SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST AND FURTHER NORTH AS IT SETS UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. DURING THIS TIME...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...A FEW LOW CENTERS...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA WILL DRIVE MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKYS WEATHER CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. DURING THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN INFLUX SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. PIN POINTING THESE FEATURES IN THIS WEAK FLOW WILL PROVE VERY DIFFICULT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WITH THE PATTERN DRIVEN BY SEVERAL WEAK LOW CENTERS...SOUTHERLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WOULD EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED. THIS THOUGHT PROCESS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHEAR LACK OF ANY FORCING. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD ALSO SUGGEST WITH THE LACK OF ANY GOOD CAP AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT A DRY AFTERNOON TO THE EXTENDED AS WELL. DID GO BELOW THE SUPER BLEND IN MOST DAYS KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NIXING ANY NOCTURNAL PRECIP. IN SHORT...THE VERY WARM...MUGGY...AND UNSTABLE DAYS OF SUMMER ARE RETURNING. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL THREATEN DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION AT THE TAF SITES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. WINDS WILL ENGAGE OUT OF THE SSW AT AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE DAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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