Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 041432 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1032 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 UPDATED NDFD SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHWEST THE CURRENT TIMING DEPICTED IN THE NDFD AND OTHER PRODUCTS FOR ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 UPDATED TO INCLUDE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE HAD A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ON TO THE EAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THE BAND OF RAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 17Z OR 1 PM TODAY. FORECAST HAS THAT COVERED WELL...SO ONLY THE SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO 500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE. HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND LIKELY REACH IFR IN SOME SPOTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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