Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301953 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 353 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak cold front continues to move southeast and is slowly moving into VA and East TN. A few sprinkles or very light showers are likely falling from some of the convection, but thunderstorms have dissipated or moved into SW VA or East TN. Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure is building into the region with a weak corresponding shortwave ridging. This evening through tonight, the sfc and mid level ridge will build into the region and cu should dissipate leading to clearing. This may set the stage for some valley fog and fog to develop where rain occurred earlier today. Drier air continues to mix down as well as advect in from the north, and lows tonight should average a few degrees cooler than this morning, especially in valley locations. For Tuesday into Tuesday night, ridging should continue to dominate although a mid level trough and cold front will begin to approach late in the period and mid and high level moisture should begin to increase late as well. Fog should lift and dissipate within one to two hours after sunrise and cu is expected to again develop on Tuesday, but showers and thunderstorms should be confined to closer to the crest of the Appalachians and points further southeast where the lingering mid level disturbance from Bonnie meanders over the Carolinas. Skies should become mostly clear again on Tuesday night and valley fog should form again in the river valleys. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 311 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Moisture return on the backside of the high shifting east will bring slightly better moisture into the area by Wednesday. While no triggers for convection will likely be present, some localized convergence around the higher terrain in southeast Kentucky could spark a few very isolated showers or thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon. Most areas will likely stay dry into Wednesday night. A better chance of rain will arrive on Thursday as a shortwave trough pushes across the Ohio river valley. Moisture will continue to pool ahead of an approaching cold front and generate better coverage of showers and storms from Thursday into Thursday night. Have continued to trend pops upward during these periods. While plenty of instability will be present...shear will be somewhat weak. However, a few strong storms couldn`t be ruled out Thursday afternoon and evening. Cold front will then work eastward late Thursday night into Friday with rain chances continuing along and just ahead of the boundary. Instability will wane by Thursday night and may have a tough time returning on Friday with the increased cloud cover and ongoing shower activity. However, will bring back a small chance of thunder in the south by late Friday morning into the early afternoon, before everything slides on southward. The start of the weekend is looking nice with lesser humidity and dry weather to start on Saturday. Rain chances may return Sunday, but models are in less agreement on the details as we head into Sunday. GFS wants to bring a significant shortwave trough across the area while the ECMWF is much less amplified. Rain chances will come back Sunday, but its still very much uncertain.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Outside of stray convection through 21Z and fog that manages to develop during the 5Z to 13Z period, VFR is anticipated. The TAF sites should remain VFR for the first 12 hours of the period, although MVFR fog will be possible at SJS, SME, and LOZ between about 8Z and 13Z. Some valley locations may experience IFR reductions in the fog and could fall below airport mins, especially in and near where showers are occurring in the vicinity of I35 and 1A6. Fog should lift and dissipate by 13Z or 14Z at the latest with VFR then returning to all locations. Winds will remain light through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP

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