Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290200 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1000 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND POSSIBLY SOME VALLEY FOG. NOT QUITE SURE HOW PREVALENT THE FOG WILL BE...GIVEN MODELS INDICATING 850 MB WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP THE COLUMN MIXED. EVEN SO...DID INCLUDE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST. ALSO REFRESHED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LATEST RADAR INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST OF THE NIGHT AS CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS REFRESHED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I64. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BY 2 OR 3Z THIS EVENING IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL QUITE MILD AS WELL...WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ACTIVE PATTERN WITH PROGRESSIVE CHARACTERISTICS. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OPENS INTO THE FRONT RANGE AS A CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. THIS WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND UP INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GIANT RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST OVER THE OH VALLEY...BRINGING AN END TO THE WET PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KENTUCKY AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WITH THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE AREA BY NOON ON SATURDAY. WITH PLENTY OF DEVELOPMENT AND LIMITED CAPE...WILL NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS BUT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. BY SUNDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING CONVECTION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WILL BE AN ISSUE...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A CONCERN OF SOME STRONG STORMS. HAVE PUT A MENTION OF THIS INTO THE HWO. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COOL PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED LEADING TO A COOL AND DRY PERIOD BEYOND THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES QUICKLY TAKING HOLD. THIS IS DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE FOG WILL MATERIALIZE OR NOT DUE TO STRONGER 850 MB WINDS MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. BUT FOR NOW...DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT TO MATCH UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JVM

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