Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200240 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1040 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1040 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 The forecast remains on track so far tonight. Fog will be the weather issue of note late tonight into early Sunday morning, especially in valleys and near bodies of water. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast to establish new trends. No other changes to the forecast were needed. UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 A forecast update has been issued this evening, to remove the late afternoon period that the dayshift had included with the 4 pm package. The latest obs were also ingested into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 332 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure off to the southwest with winds light out of the SW. This will keep much of the region under mostly sunny skies with a few CU or higher level clouds passing through. That said, a trough axis continues to move across the region, and this is leading the development of a few showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. Some of these could drop southeast into the Bluegrass and therefore kept the slight POPs going for a few more hours in the grids. These isolated storms will diminish late this afternoon and we will be left with mostly clear skies tonight. Models are in good agreement with heights rising in the wake of the previously mentioned trough and given the clearing skies kept at least patchy fog across a good portion of Eastern KY. Did opt to go areas in the deeper valley locations. The fog will burn off through the morning on Sunday. Then continued rising heights will lead to a mostly sunny day for Sunday, but a few afternoon CU will remain possible. These rising heights will combine with rising 850mb temperatures to send the temperatures into the upper 80s for most by Sunday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 410 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS should result in a quiet but warm start to the period. For the partial solar eclipse on Monday, some fair weather cu and thin ci are expected, but at this time it does not look like enough to foil the event. Based on what was reported during an annular eclipse in 1994, have made some minor adjustments to our temperature grids on Monday. Have allowed for the temps to level off or even dip slightly near the peak coverage, and have shaved a couple degrees off of what would otherwise be the maximum. A southwest to northeast oriented upper trough dropping southeast into the CONUS is expected to settle over the Great Lakes by Tuesday evening. A cold front associated with it will approach from the northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and move through on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely for most of the area ahead of the front, with anything lingering into Wednesday coming to an end as the front departs. The upper trough will be fairly significant, similar to others we`ve seen periodically late this summer. This will result in a very noticeable change to a cooler and drier air mass at mid week, with lows at least as cool as the 50s for a few nights in a row late in the week, and highs in most locations not getting out of the 70s. By Saturday there could be enough low level moisture creeping back to the north for some showers/thunderstorms to pop up. Any activity would likely be poorly organized, low in coverage, and at this point appearing to be limited to the southern part of the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 We will see mostly clear skies tonight and this will aid in fog development especially in the deeper valleys. That said, did opt to go with the MVFR fog toward 5Z at LOZ/SME and 8Z at SYM. Winds will continue to remain light through the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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