Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 282010 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 410 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 242 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 Surface high pressure is currently set up across the eastern Ohio Valley, with low pressure moving across Minnesota. Aloft, heights are recovering across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, thanks to a ridge centered across southwest Texas. A quick-moving short wave trough is moving east across south central Canada. Eastern Kentucky remains under the influence of high pressure, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 60s in the northern half of the area, to the upper 60s to lower 70s across the southern half of the region. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the low pressure system currently across Minnesota making quick progress to the east across the northern Great Lakes, and into the eastern Saint Lawrence River Valley by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, high pressure will move off to the east and eventually southeast. This will allow for return flow to ensue, with much warmer air being pumped into the region. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, with lows generally ranging from the mid to upper 40s in the valleys, to the mid 50s on the ridges. Highs on Saturday will push 80 degrees, with records being threatened both at Jackson and London. Saturday night will feature another ridge/valley split night under the influence of southwest surface flow. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 50s in the valleys, to around 60 degrees on the ridgetops. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 410 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 ...Record warmth possible late this weekend and into the first part of next week... A weak shortwave will be moving through the Ohio River Valley and points northward through the day Sunday. As it exits to our east Sunday night, upper level ridging will push in from our southwest and continue to gain strength as it builds across the southeastern conus. This ridging should remain the primary weather driver through Wednesday, at which point another more positively tilted wave will move towards the Ohio River Valley, sweeping KY Thursday into Friday as it strengthens into a closed low. At the surface, a weak cold front will push southeast toward the Ohio River Valley Saturday night and Sunday morning, before slowing and weakening significantly as it pushes southward through the state Sunday afternoon/evening. By this point the boundary will have little to no impact other than a brief wind shift Sunday night and an increase in the cloud cover across the state. Enough southerly flow ahead of the frontal passage will keep temperatures well above normal for Sunday afternoon, nearing 80 in many locations. A few locations may match previous high temp records for this day, though Jackson may stay a couple degrees below their record of 82 degrees set for this day. Once the front moves south of the region, it will reintensify as a warm front, pushing back into the southern portion of the state during the day Wednesday. This will pull warm Gulf air back into the state, and boost temps back into the low 80s in the southwestern portion of the CWA (where clouds are expected to clear out by the afternoon), and in the upper 70s in the northeast (where clouds may linger through much of the day). This may mean some high temp records being met or broke in the southwestern portion of the CWA. The warm front will push northeast through the state by Monday evening. From Tuesday through Wednesday, southerly flow and the strong upper level ridge will promote sunshine and temperatures in the low 80s for many locations. In other words, the beginning of November will be ushered in with temperatures some 20 degrees above normal. The previously mentioned stronger shortwave that is expected to impact the region Thursday and Friday will bring with it another surface cold front and better chances for precip across much of the state. Models are in fairly good agreement about the extent of precip as it moves across the state, but are somewhat different in their timings of the shortwave and surface features, with the GFS being the most progressive. Being this far out in the forecast, stuck with a model blend of the pops. The increase in cloud cover and cooler air moving in from the NW will promote cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday, though still well above seasonable normals.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure maintains control to our east and eventually southeast. This will allow for surface winds to veer around to the southwest by Saturday morning. Sustained southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts can be expected by late morning, with perhaps a few higher gusts by Saturday afternoon, although will leave out the mention for now. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.