Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241910 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 310 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 310 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 Satellite imagery shows diminishing coverage in the low cloud over the southwest part of the forecast area. This trend should continue into this evening, before mid cloud begins to increase across the entire area overnight. The amount of cloud present tonight is problematic and overnight low temperatures will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover. Continued to carry a small ridge valley temperature difference for tonight, but depending on actual sky cover this could be underdone or overdone. Focus for the weekend will shift to the mid and upper level low pressure system showing up nicely on satellite over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The surface low is also over the panhandle and the entire system will lift northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. The models are in good agreement that the mid and upper level low will be north of St. Louis by 12Z Sunday morning. Current data still points towards Saturday being dry across the area, with just a slight chance of thundershowers in the far southwest part of the area by late afternoon. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will spread slowly across the area Saturday night as a cold front approaches the area. Rain chances Saturday night will vary from around 50 percent in far east KY to 90 percent over the western part of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 310 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 The extended period looks to be quite active, with several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected. The first wave of rain is expected Saturday night through Sunday night as a low pressure system moves northeastward out of the south central Plains and into the Great Lakes region. This system will drag a cold front across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, which will spark numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the warm and fairly muggy air mass ahead of the boundary. Once the low passes by to our north, the rain will taper off steadily Sunday night into early Monday morning. The model data has the front stalling just to the south of the area on Monday. A wave of low pressure is then forecast to form along the western end of the boundary. This area of low pressure is then expected to move northward across our area Monday and Monday night, bringing more rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms to eastern Kentucky. This round of rain will likely linger across the area through the day on Wednesday, depending on how quickly the parent low pulls eastward out of the region. A ridge of high pressure should then settle over the region Wednesday night, bringing a temporary break from the precipitation. However, the break may be short lived, as the models have another weather system coming out of the Plains and across our neck of the woods again Thursday and Thursday night. At this time, due to model uncertainty late in the period, decided to leave out thunder for now to end the extended. Temperatures through out the period should be well above normal, with daily highs in the 60s and 70s, and nightly lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 Clouds increased across the area early this afternoon, and expect ceilings of 4K to 6K feet to prevail for the remainder of the day. Southwest winds will be gusty across the Cumberland Valley and Bluegrass regions with gusts to near 20 knots at times this afternoon. Winds will diminish early this evening and become more southerly. VFR conditions will prevail through the night and into the day Saturday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SBH

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