Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300755 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...A SEPARATE SLUG OF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE FL AND GA COASTLINE. THIS SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH FL COAST TRACKS NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO THE AL AND FL PANHANDLE TRACKING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS WELL...THIS BEING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THIS CLUSTER OF CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING EAST WILL PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL BE FOR THE SHORT TERM. ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...AN EVER PRESENT WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE UNDER THIS PATTERN BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DEPENDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF ANY GOOD SURFACE GRADIENT IN THIS PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE TERRAIN AREAS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING WITH TIME THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING WILL BE INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHILE MITIGATING SOME OF THE TYPICAL SHORTCOMINGS GIVEN THE PATTERN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BOUTS OF MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAWN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THOUGH...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER EAST KENTUCKY...FORECASTING THE ONSET WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP AT EACH SITE BESIDES JKL AS FOG SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VALLEYS. ALSO...DESPITE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR TO IFR AT WORST. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INTO THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE NORM. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 18Z AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT IN QUESTION SO WILL GO WITH VCTS AT THE SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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