Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 060703 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND TO ADD A BIT OF A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. DEEP DROP IN LOWS IS NOT MATERIALIZING OVER AREAS WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN SOME LOWS IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10- 15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...RAY

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