Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271129 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 729 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT BUMPS UP AGAINST THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGHS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING. ON THURSDAY...AS THE DIURNAL HEATING GETS GOING...IT WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND THEN COOL OFF A LITTLE WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FAR SE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITTING OVER THE FAR SW CONUS WILL BUILD STRENGTH. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL IN TURN CREATE A TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW BY THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT 0Z FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD BEHIND THE EXITING SE HIGH. THIS WILL RESULTING IN FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN KY AND THE RETURN OF MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE...FROM MN/WI SOUTHWARD INTO TX. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD BACK ACROSS KY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO USHER IN WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UP UNTIL THIS POINT...THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY AND THE INCOMING BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY HOWEVER. INSTEAD...THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL RACE EASTWARD...ELONGATING THE FRONT TO A MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTATION SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO EASTERN KY INSTEAD. AND BUILDING HEIGHTS AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EXITING FRONT WILL NOT...HOWEVER...RESULT IN CLEARING CONDITIONS. IF ANYTHING...IT WILL INCREASE RAIN POTENTIAL...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY DECREASING THE SEVERE THREAT. KY WILL NOW FIND ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO KY...BUT SHOULD KEEP SOME OF THE BEST INSTABILITY/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO OUR NORTH. AS SUCH...STILL LOOKING AT PWAT VALUES REACHING AROUND THE 2.0 INCH MARK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF BEST INSTABILITY...THUNDER COULD STILL DEVELOP IN ANY OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND PRODUCE DECENT AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING...AND EVEN SOME GUSTY WINDS. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...STORM MOTION IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE /AROUND 15 KTS/...SO TRAINING OF STORMS AND NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN/THREAT. DRY AIR SHOULD FINALLY WORK IT/S WAY IN FROM ALOFT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CUT OFF BEST PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RETURN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SET UP EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT BUMPS UP AGAINST THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGHS. THE ONLY TAF STATION THAT MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS IS SJS. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TAF STATIONS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...JJ

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