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000
FXUS63 KJKL 060703
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND TO ADD A BIT OF A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BASED ON HOURLY
TRENDS. DEEP DROP IN LOWS IS NOT MATERIALIZING OVER AREAS WITH
LESS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN SOME LOWS IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...RAY