Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301933 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 333 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Showers and storms have formed along the Virginia and Tennessee borders this afternoon in response to an upper level low moving into the Carolinas and spreading moisture into the area. These showers and storms are capable of producing breif heavy rainfall and some lightning but should dissipate shortly after sunset. Tonight, the upper level ridge will finally start to break down as a trough digs southward towards the Great Lakes. As such, heights will lower throughout the day on Wednesday into Thursday morning as the trough axis pushes towards Kentucky. At the surface, we will see a gradual increase in cloud cover and shower chances as a cold front makes its way towards Kentucky from the northwest tomorrow afternoon. The best chance for showers and storms will be constrained to the Bluegrass region tomorrow afternoon, as well as along the Virginia border, with the strongest energy staying to our north and west. The front is progged to weaken and drop through the area tomorrow night into Thursday morning, with no real wind shift noted in the models. Given the unfavorable timing of the fropa, thunderstorm chances should be limited. Temperatures will remain mild during the overnight periods with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Tomorrows high will be unseasonably warm with highs potentially reaching 90 degrees in spots, depending on cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 The bulk of the extended period looks to be dry and much cooler than the weather we have been experiencing the past couple of weeks. A weak cold front will be exiting the area on Thursday. The limited lift and moisture associated with the front should be just enough to spark scattered showers and storms across eastern Kentucky. The precipitation should be exiting the area by late Thursday afternoon, with the area being rain free by 0Z Friday. A much cooler and drier air mass will then spill into the region behind the departed front. We should then see by far the most pleasant weather of the entire summer Thursday and Friday, with highs on each day only topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s with low humidity. A gradual warming trend should then begin over the weekend, as mostly clear skies and light winds allow strong surface heating to occur. We should see near normal temperatures from Saturday onward, with daily maxes in the 80s on tap. Overnight lows Thursday night and Friday night are expected to fall into the upper 50s for most locations. The rest of the week should see lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. The first day of meteorological fall, September 1st, should truly feel like fall.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Scattered diurnal CU will continue to develop throughout the afternoon, with some isolated convection possible near the VA border. But this should pose little threat to any of the TAF sites. Tonight, fog could be a concern once again. However, this will depend on if temperatures can reach the crossover temperatures, and if any TAF sites see rain. Right now, SJS is the only site that may see rain this afternoon so decided to put IFR VIS, with MVFR at LOZ and SME, in the forecast late tonight. Winds will remain light, generally from the N to NE and less than 5 mph. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JVM

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