Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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231 FXUS63 KJKL 281520 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1120 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 Upslope flow with low level moisture lingering behind a surface low and shortwave moving into the mid Atlantic states is leading to bands of light rain and drizzle across East KY. Short term models indicates that light rain or drizzle should continue off an on through evening. The persistent low clouds should lead to lower max T than the previous forecast. Hourly temperatures as well as max temperatures have been adjusted accordingly with hourly pops adjusted for radar and the latest trends. UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 Issued another quick update to touch up the PoP and Wx grids through the first part of the morning and also to hit the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 410 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 07z sfc analysis shows a low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley. This brought strong to severe thunderstorms to the area during the evening hours. Now the bulk of these initial showers and storms have moved off to the east while a few lighter ones trail back toward the system`s cold front now pressing through western Kentucky. Conditions remain quite mild overnight as the moist environment, south to southwest breezes, and overcast conditions are supporting temperatures in the mid 50s - or just a degree or two higher than the dewpoints. Patchy fog is also noted in the wake of the more steady rainfall that cleared out earlier. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a trough passing through Kentucky this morning as it moves off to the East Coast by evening. This will be followed by rising heights and broad ridging through the mid part of the country tonight into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the next in a series of deep troughs will be moving through the Four Corners region. This trough will break northeast toward the High Plains on Wednesday with the timing and placement similar among the models - though the GFS is coming in weaker than the ECMWF at 00z Thursday. Downstream, this trough, will help to pump up the ridge over Kentucky with energy staying well to the north of our area. Sensible weather for eastern Kentucky will feature a cloudy day with near normal temperatures as the typical diurnal rise is hampered by west to northwest winds and cold advection. Scattered to isolated showers will be the rule today with a diminishing trend by afternoon as support moves off to the east. Plenty of low level moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy into tonight limiting terrain distinctions and supporting just some patchy valley fog towards Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be a bit warmer of a day - helped by a late day return of southeast winds and also some sunshine - though a nearby front and lower thicknesses will keep a lid on this warmth. Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for the grids with some minor, spot adjustments made to temperatures tonight. As for PoPs, have tamped them down faster than the guidance today with low QPF and afternoon drying expected. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 324 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 Mild conditions will return early in the period ahead of another shortwave trough that will push into the region on Thursday. This will send afternoon highs on Thursday well into the 70s. Moisture will also be on the increase with a few isolated showers or storms possible late in the day. Better forcing will slide east Thursday night and Friday with widespread showers. The wave will be on top of eastern Kentucky on Friday and will yield some instability leading to a small chance for a few storms. The whole system will exit Friday night with rain showers exiting the area. Most of the weekend is setting up dry as a strong surface ridge slides by just to the north. Another wave will take aim on the area early next week, but still some uncertainty on timing of this next wave with models quite a bit off. Either way, active pattern will continue. In addition, mild conditions will continue through the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 Still a concern for a passing shower through midday. Cigs will remain in the IFR to low MVFR range for most places for entire day - though some spots will likely see them rise up 1K to 1.5K by mid afternoon before dropping again this evening and continuing low through the night. Winds will gradually shift to west and northwest behind a cold front this morning then stay light out of that direction for the remainder of the TAF cycle. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.