Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050253 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 953 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 DID A UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO TRY TO KEEP UP WITH THE TRANSITION LINE TONIGHT. THIS LINE HAS SOME WHAT LINED UP WITH THE WSR-88D CC MOMENTS. MUCH OF THE TRANSITION HAS BEEN FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET MIX TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED AT THIS POINT. IN FACT WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM STANTON...CAMPTON...TO WEST LIBERTY SEEING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. THIS COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RIGHT NOW HAVE STUCK WITH AMOUNTS WE HAVE...HOWEVER THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IN FUTURE UPDATES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING A CHANGE OVER ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES THIS HOUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TRANSITION LINE COULD CHANGE OVERTIME. DID OPT TO UPDATE THE TRANSITION LINE A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO CONTINUING TO MONITOR HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL FALLS AS A MIX...WITH SITES NORTH OF THE REGION SEEING A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW. THIS COULD AFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS THIS STORM SYSTEM CREEPS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS EVIDENCE BY WINDS GOING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW...MOST OF THIS IS RAIN. HOWEVER...JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME SLEET JUST NORTH IN LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING UP WELL WITH REPORTS OF SLEET OCCURRING FIRST WITH THE INITIAL TRANSITION. GOING TO GO WITH A MORE LIBERAL AREA OF SLEET/RAIN THIS EVENING AS WE COULD SEE A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING SLEET. FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION IF IT OCCURS AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 32 TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THIS HAPPENS WE SHOULD THEN SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS IS BASICALLY HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TODAY. BASED ON THE CHANGEOVER TIMES AND QPF...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AND ICE FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THUS...NO CHANGES EXPECTED WITH HEADLINES AND WILL LET EVERYTHING RIDE AS IS FOR NOW. NEED FOR FLOOD WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHED BY LATER ON TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS OVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION. SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL COME TO AN END FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY DAY HIGH. HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY PEAK THROUGH BY MID AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BRIEF JUMP UPWARDS WITH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP DEPARTS. IN FACT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TEMPS COULD REACH 5 BELOW ZERO IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON SAT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD....WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED. SOME SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE LOWER TEENS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THEN...TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HIT THE 50S BY MONDAY...AND EVEN POSSIBLY 60 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 628 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. MOST SITES HAVE FALLEN TO IFR THIS EVENING AND WOULD EXPECT MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME SITES FALLING TO LIFR AT TIMES. RIGHT NOW THE RAIN CONTINUES AT MOST SITES...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX FROM NW TO SE AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS SITES TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW THEY WILL SEE QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VIS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-120. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ

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