Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020655 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CIGS COULD COME DOWN TO MVFR IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FALLING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL TREND LOWER WITH MVFR THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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