Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261721 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 121 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 121 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017 Updated the forecast to input the latest observations. It seems that forecasted high temp may fall a degree short of the record for JKL. UPDATE Issued at 1004 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017 With clear skies currently across eastern Kentucky, high pressure remains in control with the daytime temperatures on the increase. This has caused much of the valley fog to begin to lift and mix out this morning. So have taken fog out of the zfp and updated the hwo to reflect no hazards. Otherwise, have input the latest obs into the grids and trended them out through the rest of the morning. It appears the JKL record high temp today still is in jeopardy of being tied or even broken as 87 degrees is still the forecasted value. UPDATE Issued at 651 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017 Fog is a bit more prevalent than expected, showing up well in all the major river valleys on the GOES-R fog channel. Last minute change to the morning forecast package was warranted adding dense wording in these areas. Ended up sending out a Graphical Nowcast and including wording of dense fog in the HWO as well. Fog will lift and dissipate over the next couple of hours. Loaded the latest observations into the near term grids to make sure the forecast was on track with current conditions. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017 Not much has changed across the area over the last day, with high pressure and an upper level ridge still placed just to our NE and in control of the weather across eastern Kentucky. This will promote generally mostly sunny conditions and well above normal temperatures in the upper 80s today and Wednesday. Hurricane Maria continues to near the Carolina/Virginia coastline, with southerly flow aloft pulling moisture in form of high clouds across portions eastern Kentucky. Winds will eventually become more northerly aloft throughout the day, which may inhibit cirrus by this afternoon/overnight. A few diurnal clouds will be possible in the 4 to 5k foot range in the afternoon. According to the GOES-16 Fog channel early this morning, in between wisps of high clouds, it appears as though many of the river valleys are receiving fog, with the Cumberland and Kentucky basins the most lit up. Based on these trends, included patchy to areas of fog in most of the deeper valleys, and included dense wording through the main river valleys. It is possible that a few other locations are seeing isolated dense fog as well, however with lack of observations support it is hard to tell. Light winds and high pressure still in control will make conditions in the valleys conducive to fog development once again tonight. As we head into Wednesday, a weakening cold front will begin approaching from our NW. The GFS still holds on to a thin band of light precip as it moves across Kentucky and towards the CWA late in the day Wednesday before drying by the time it reaches eastern Kentucky in the mid-term. The ECMWF up until this point has been relatively dry, but is now also starting to add in some light QPF along the Ohio River in western and central KY by late Wednesday afternoon. While this will not pose any concern for precip across our CWA during the day Wednesday, the slight uptick in moisture will at least allow for some increasing cloud potential in the afternoon, mainly in the northern and western portions of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 458 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017 A pattern change will be under way as the period starts, with the persistent upper ridge which has been over our area getting suppressed to the south as a transient trough moves southeast over the northeast CONUS. This will allow a surface cold front to move southeast through the area on Wednesday night. Models show a smattering of light precip along the front and MOS POPs are in the 20-30% range at many locations. However, the front won`t have any significant moisture associated with it, and forecast soundings are not impressive. With the previous forecast being dry, have opted not to go with measurable precip, but to mention sprinkles with the front. The boundary will be exiting to the southeast on Thursday morning, and cooler and drier air will arrive. Another push of cool and dry air will arrive Friday night, but not even sprinkles are anticipated with this reinforcement. Sprawling surface high pressure then moves slowly from the Great Lakes to New England on Saturday through Monday, keeping us dry with near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017 High pressure remains in control across the area through the TAF period. Thus will expect light and variable winds. However, the flux of some low level moisture may lead to some slightly worse fog development towards dawn so have put some fog at the TAF sites for tomorrow. Burn off should be in place by 13Z with the development of a 4 KFT scattered cloud layer with the days heating. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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