Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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629 FXUS63 KJKL 211950 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 Lingering isold to sct upslope showers will gradually diminish through the late afternoon and early evening as surface high pressure begins to nose its way into the area tonight. In addition, our low stratocu deck will be slow to dissipate. Areas most likely to begin clearing first will be our far southwest counties later tonight or early in the morning. Clearing line will gradually move eastward through the remainder of the day Saturday. Real focus for the short term turns to overnight lows and whether there will be a potential for any frost. Clouds and a steady northwest gradient flow around 5 mph will tend to keep our temperatures up and kill any potential for frost tonight. Feel the potential for frost will be low Saturday night into Sunday as well. The center of the sfc high pressure will remain well to our south Saturday night and gradient return flow will also be on the increase ahead of an approaching system moving through the Midwest. Thus radiative cooling will not be ideal. The only concern might be our typically colder, deeper eastern valleys where a nocturnal inversion will have an opportunity to set up before return flow is able to keep the boundary layer mixed out. As a general rule, western valleys are much easier to mix out under these circumstances. Guidance does suggest eastern valley locations will see temperatures dropping in the mid to upper 30s by sunrise Sunday. However, models also indicate that wet bulb temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30s. So while fog may be possible am not confident enough that frost would be a problem. To summarize, while some very isolated patchy frost in a couple of spots can not be ruled out, lack of coverage and low confidence allows leaving any mention of frost out the forecast for now. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 A mainly dry and seasonable forecast is in store for Eastern Kentucky through the extended period. The period will start out on the chilly side Sunday morning with lows in the mid 30s and low 40s. Temperatures will rebound towards 70 degrees in the afternoon as high pressure skirts by. A cold front will push through the area Monday morning but won`t bring any precipitation, just a wind shift back to the north and a much drier airmass. Tuesday morning is looking quite chilly with Co-Op MOS showing valley temps at or just below freezing. So have decided to drop valley temps below Superblend into the low and mid 30s and include patchy frost in the forecast. Temperatures will rebound into the low 70s by Wednesday ahead of shortwave trough. This trough is expected to bring a cold front through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture with this frontal passage looks a bit better than in previous model runs so there is a decent chance for precipitation on Thursday. Low level moisture appears to hang around on Friday, allowing for at least partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures to prevail. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 In general IFR level CIGS have lifted into MVFR territory. Expect KSYM, KSME, and KLOZ to become VFR by late this afternoon or very early in the evening. Terminals further east, KJKL and KSJS will take a few hours longer. However, low VFR stratocu decks are expected to linger through the overnight with partial clearing not taking place until Saturday morning into mid-afternoon. Also seeing some regeneration of some shower activity in upslope flow as wrap around moisture combines with flow off of the Great Lakes. While shower activity will be confined to mainly the higher terrain along the Kentucky/Virgina state line, did leave a mentioned of VCSH for several more hours in most of the TAFs. Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish through the late afternoon, becoming light around 6 kts tonight. Then northwest gradient winds will increase again Saturday to around 10kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...RAY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.