Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260730 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Mid/upper level ridging across the eastern CONUS will keep a hot and humid air mass in place across eastern Kentucky through the weekend. Can not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon across our southern and southwestern zones as a very weak upper level disturbance manages to track around the south side of the mid/upper level ridge centered over the Atlantic seaboard. Sensible weather will see summer like weather with hot and humid conditions continuing across the forecast area. Weather will also be dry except for isolated showers and thunderstorms generally off the Cumberland Plateau and higher terrain along the Virginia border Saturday afternoon. Seasonably hot afternoon temperatures will climb into the lower 90s today and Saturday. Very humid air in place will keep overnight lows up around 70 tonight. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 348 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Not the best agreement amongst the extended this time around. The ECMWF was consistently drier through out the period than the GFS. The blended model data settled around a solution that features showers and storms moving into the area Saturday afternoon, and persisting Monday afternoon, with the most active periods being the afternoon and evening hours. It then appears that a ridge of high pressure will settle over the area from Monday evening through Tuesday morning, bringing a brief respite from shower and storm activity. A sluggish cold front will attempt to push into the area from early Tuesday afternoon onward. This boundary may spark a few showers and storms in our far western counties on Tuesday. After that, another ridge of high pressure is progged to spread over the area Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night. More showers and storms are then expected to plague the area from late Tuesday night through the end of the week. With the amount of uncertainty in the model data, decided to keep only very low rain chances in the forecast, at least until the models have a better handle on things. Hot and muggy conditions are expected to persist through out the period, with highs around 90 expected from Saturday through Wednesday. The expected clouds and precipitation should allow temperatures on Thursday to not be quite as warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s on that day.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 VFR conditions expected for most terminals. Both KLOZ and KSME could see some MVFR VSBYS due to fog late tonight into the early Saturday morning. Fog should lift and dissipate totally across the area by 10 a.m. Winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...RAY

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