Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 151917 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 317 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 A broken line of showers well ahead of the approaching cold front is moving across the area. The lack of instability has limited the strength of the convection, but instability is a little greater in the southwest part of the area where 18Z SPC mesoanalysis has CAPE over 1000 j/kg. Some lightning has shown up southwest of the forecast area in far northern TN near the KY border so will continue to carry a slight chance of thunder for the next few hours. Other scattered showers are near the front which has passed SDF and CVG. There are some gusty winds with the front with a peak wind of 36 knots at CVG and 39 knots at SDF. The front will move quickly southeast across the area late this afternoon and early evening and be southeast of KY by around 00Z. The shower chance will diminish quickly after the frontal passage and much cooler air will spread into the area. While fog will likely limit frost formation Monday night, there may still be some scattered frost in some areas. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 317 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 There is good model agreement with the evolution of the overall upper level flow across the United States during the coming week. Initially there will be weak troughing in the east, and weak ridging over the southwest U.S. This will transition to a slightly wavy zonal flow, but by the end of the week as troughing develops in the west, upper ridging will build in the east. Overall this means an extended period of dry weather for us, with warming temperatures. At the beginning of the period we will still be under the influence of the cool air mass which will overspread the area Sunday night, and frost remains a possibility in a few spots Wednesday morning. However on Tuesday the surface high will begin a gradual shift to the east and this will combine with a building upper level ridge late in the week to bring a warming trend, with temperatures well above normal by the end of the week. Very warm weather will continue through next weekend with readings around 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 A broken cloud deck from 2500 to 3500 feet will remain across the area for the remainder of the afternoon. A cold front, which extends from southeast MI to western KY will advance southeast and move southeast of KY shortly after 00Z. A few isolated showers are possible through mid afternoon, then a narrow band of showers is expected to move across eastern KY in association with the cold front. Thunderstorm chances are decreasing but an isolated storm is still possible and will carry VCTS for a few hours at the TAF sites this afternoon. With the passage of the cold front a more solid deck of clouds will bring MVFR ceilings for the beginning of the overnight period. The clouds will scatter our late tonight or early Monday morning. Ahead of the cold front southwest to west winds will gust to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon, then turn to the northwest with the passage of the front late this afternoon and early evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SBH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.