Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 071736 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1236 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 959 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 UPDATED TO REDUCE SKY COVER EARLY IN THE DAY AND BLEND OTHER OBSERVED PARAMETERS INTO THE FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. HAVE UPDATED THE SKY COVER TO INCLUDE THESE CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WILL STILL BE ON TAP OVERALL...SO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY REMAINS NOSED IN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...KEEPING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST MANITOBA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP FOR NOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. ALOFT...AMPLIFYING FLOW IS UNDERWAY...WITH THE MAIN PLAYER OF INTEREST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWIRLING ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH AND ESTABLISHING A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEP TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GIVEN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND TO THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND THE MILD RESPONSE THAT OCCURRED FROM YESTERDAY. THE PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN. WETBULBING WILL BATTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE EASTERN VALLEYS LIKELY DROPPING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE COOP MOS SUGGESTS UPPER 20S FOR LOWS...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A QUICK DROP OFF THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONCE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE FIRST INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BEHIND THIS...BEFORE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL GO OVER TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY DUSK MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA INTO MID-WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN. AS SUCH...WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 IN GENERAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH REASONABLY DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AS WELL. AS EXPECTED SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE WITH DETAILS DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX TYPE EVENT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE VERY WEAK SFC WAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH OVERALL SIMILARITIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS STAYED CLOSE TO OUR TYPICAL BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES BY AROUND DAWN THURSDAY. THE DIRECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE FLOW TYPE SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...QPF FOR THE EVENT AS A WHOLE IS FAIRLY LIGHT. BUT COLUMN MOISTURE IS DEEP AND SNOW RATIOS ARE QUITE HIGH AS WELL. THEREFORE WHILE OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SOME DECENT AMOUNTS WITH TIME OVER THE TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD...IT SHOULD BE MORE POWDERY IN NATURE. CONSIDERING THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF AN ADVISORY TYPE IMPACT IN GENERAL. THE LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY TYPE OF MAJOR STORM SYSTEM ATTM...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 VFR WILL LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 06Z...A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AND MVFR CONDITIONS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING THE VA BORDER BY ABOUT 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR FOR A TIME AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...HAL

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