Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301055 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 655 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS IN. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN NOW SOME SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER. SO UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT THEM TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...A SEPARATE SLUG OF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE FL AND GA COASTLINE. THIS SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH FL COAST TRACKS NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO THE AL AND FL PANHANDLE TRACKING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS WELL...THIS BEING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THIS CLUSTER OF CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING EAST WILL PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL BE FOR THE SHORT TERM. ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...AN EVER PRESENT WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE UNDER THIS PATTERN BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DEPENDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF ANY GOOD SURFACE GRADIENT IN THIS PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE TERRAIN AREAS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING WITH TIME THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING WILL BE INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHILE MITIGATING SOME OF THE TYPICAL SHORTCOMINGS GIVEN THE PATTERN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BOUTS OF MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN KEEPING FOG COVERAGE MINIMAL THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL START THE TAF SITES OFF THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WITH HEATING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AT THE SITES WITH VCTS BY 18Z AND CONTINUING TILL 00Z. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FROM THE DAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE SITES THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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