Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270841 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 341 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 103 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED A DUSTING AT MOST IN SOME AREAS WITH SOME VISIBILITIES NEAR A MILE. THIS BAND HAS A FINE EDGE NOW CROSSING I-64. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE ACTIVITY INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE SENT OUT SOME FRESHENED UP GRIDS TO ADDRESS THIS AND TEMPERATURES AS THE COLDER AIR IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES AND NOW INTO KY. THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE ZFP...THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 A DISTURBANCE IS WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION AND IS BRINGING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION. AWOS AND ASOS SITES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KY HAVE REPORTED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY...SO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS HAVE NOT DROPPED ALL THAT FAR. AT THIS POINT...PER RADAR AND SFC OBS IT APPEARS THAT THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS NEARING THE SOMERSET TO JACKSON TO SANDY HOOK LINE. ONLY ONE KY MESONET SITE IN CENTRAL KY HAS RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO HAVE THIS DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT IT SEEMS TO CLEARLY BE HOLDING TOGETHER BETTER THAN THE HRRR IS FORECASTING. THE WINDS ARE BIT MORE NORTHERLY THAN IDEAL FOR UPSLOPE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE MOST RECENT NAM AND GFS RUNS AS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS. AT THIS POINT...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS APPEAR TO REMAIN IN ORDER AND AN SPS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF FLUFF WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS MAY ONLY GET A LIGHT DUSTING OR NOTHING AT ALL. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...WITH UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FRI NIGHT APPEARS TO BE COLDER ON AVERAGE THAN TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE EAST WHILE A DEEP LOW IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THIS IS MOVING INTO KENTUCKY AND THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. ON REGIONAL RADAR...THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS STARTING TO SETTLE DEEPER INTO THE STATE. EAST KENTUCKY SAW PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS CLINGING TO OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WHILE HIGH CLOUDS PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ARE INBOUND FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY NOW...AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO SPIKE UP TO NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHILE ONLY LOW 30S WERE ACHIEVED IN THE NORTHWEST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST WHILE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ARE FOUND IN THE EAST. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER AND LARGER TROUGH THAT SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ITS CORE ENERGY ACROSS OHIO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AMIDST REBOUNDING HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THESE HEIGHT RISES AND MAY BE GETTING AHEAD OF ITSELF. GIVEN THE GENERAL AGREEMENT...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING...HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR... RAP13...AND NAM12 FOR WX SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS ARRIVING ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC AIR POURING BACK INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN MOST PLACES BY DAWN THANKS TO THE CAA WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING IN FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 20S BY MIDDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY ON TAP FOR THE VALLEYS AND MORE OPEN AREAS...WHILE SOME LATE ARRIVING HIGH CLOUDS AND THE INVERSION MAY SPARE THE RIDGES THE COLDEST OF THE AIR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT TO JUMP START THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS MADE AT NIGHT. AFTER THAT...USED THE SUPERBLEND TO INITIATE THE GRIDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR CHANGES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE...CLOSER TO THE MET...OF RATHER LOW MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...THEN SIMILAR FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 A VERY PERIOD IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD WILL ACTUALLY START OFF FAIRLY QUIET...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ABOUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH BELOW FREEZING AIR THAT WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AND WARM AIR SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. AFTER THIS SHORT RESPITE...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY...AS WARM GULF AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA AND OVERRIDES THE WARM FRONT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HOURS ON TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY LETTING UP. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. HYDRO ISSUES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MELT THE EXISTING SNOW PACK...WHICH WILL CREATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. THIS ADDITIONAL WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AS WELL. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPECTING NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THAT PAST TWO WEEKS. THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO FEATURE ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE AREA. THE WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MERCURY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST MAY EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AFTER LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT COULD CONCEIVABLE FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BEHIND YET ANOTHER DEARLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 103 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS...THERE WILL BE IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAWN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME GUSTS AT TIMES TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHTER INTO THE DAY WITH A LESSENING GRADIENT. BY MIDDAY...THE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY LIFT AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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