Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220749 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 349 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKIES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A NARROW BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS IS HOLDING ON NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE CLEARING AND LEFT OVER GROUND MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE NOTED IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND ALSO ON SOME OF THE RIDGES. WILL MONITOR THIS VIA THE OBS AND WEB CAMS FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR NPW THIS MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...THE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF THE FORTHCOMING HWO. READINGS ARE RATHER CHILLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR SO LOWER THAN DRY BULB TEMPS AMID LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. A BAND OF WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT DURING THIS TRANSITION...BEFORE THE RIDGE SHARPENS OVER EAST KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PLEASANT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND... ONCE THIS MORNING/S VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...BREAKS UP BY 10 AM. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER EACH DAY WITH A DECENT RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MILDER FOR MOST PLACES THAN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD ON SATURDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THAT FRONT INITIALLY APPROACHES BEFORE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE FOLLOWING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME MODERATE TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE WARM WEATHER WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A STRONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. SHOULD THE MODELS HOLD TRUE...WE WOULD SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN STALLS OUT FOR A TIME. THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WARM WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 VFR CIGS AND VIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF BR AT MOST SITES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DAMP GROUNDS AND CLEARING SKIES. OCCASIONAL LIFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITE JKL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF BY 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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