Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291400 AAA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1000 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1000 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Updated the zone forecast text product to remove mention of fog and morning wording. Otherwise, the forecast was in good shape. Also ingested the most recent surface obs to establish new trends in the hourly forecast data. The Hazardous Weather Outlook was also updated to remove mention of early morning dense fog. UPDATE Issued at 724 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Skies have cleared out over most of the area early this morning. Have updated the grids for this development, as well as to blend other obs into the forecast. Will still look for more clouds to form during the day, especially after a chance for some heating.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 359 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 An upper level ridge over the area will continue to weaken, and a trough will begin to drop southeast over the Great Lakes during the period. Features over the local area will be weak/benign. A low level humid air mass will remain in place today, and with daytime heating, some thunderstorms won`t be ruled out. However, forecast soundings show drying aloft, and without upper level support, entrainment of drier air will be more of a limiting factor on convective currents as compared to Sunday. Have not used anything higher than a 20% POP in the JKL forecast area for today, and even that may be generous. Both the GFS MOS and NAM MOS have sub-20% POPs. Any convective precip will die this evening. Drier low level air should start advecting into the area tonight and Tuesday in the flow around high pressure passing by to our north. That being the case, have only used a silent 10% POP for Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A pattern change will be underway by Tuesday night as an upper level ridge shifts to our west and is replaced by a longwave trough by late in the week. At the surface, a cold front will drop through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This late arrival time and limited instability should keep the frontal passage relatively dry, with only a small chance of a shower or storm. A cooler and much drier airmass will then advect in as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes into the Northeast from Thursday afternoon into the weekend. As a result, temperatures will fall from the upper 80s on Wednesday into the upper 70s and low 80s behind the front on Friday with much more comfortable humidity levels as well. Temperatures will moderate back into the mid 80s by Sunday and dewpoints will climb back into the 60s as the surface high shifts to our east and our flow becomes more southerly. It looks dry for the Labor Day weekend as of now with any tropical mischief moving by well to our south and east. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A generally quiet period is in store. Fog will affect some locations with IFR or worse conditions early this morning- mainly in the larger/deeper valleys. Once the fog dissipates, mostly VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the period. A few showers or thunderstorms can`t be ruled out during the heat of the afternoon, but they should not be as prevalent as on Sunday. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...HAL

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