Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301908 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 308 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 308 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 WSR-88D radar continues to show a few showers continuing to develop across portions of the CWA this afternoon. These could expand a bit more in the northern portion of the CWA as storms move east out of northern central KY. This has been brought on by a weak upper level wave and a surface boundary near the Ohio River. This is being handled fairly well by the CAM data and SSEO and therefore have blended close to these short term models for pops. Coverage wise these should be mostly diurnally driven but given the cyclonic flow will keep at least slight pops overnight. Sunday best pop coverage will reside in the southern portions of the CWA. This given less of a focus lifting wise within the upper level pattern and the column lessen moisture wise given PWATS finally drop into the 1.5 range. Therefore overall went toward a more diurnal and topographical type scenario. Given the lessening moisture going into Sunday night do actually expect that most areas should see a end to the stormy activity for a change. Temperature wise would expect most locations will remain near normal through the period. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 308 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Available shortly...
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Starting off with a mix VFR/MVFR this TAF issuance. WSR-88D radar showing a few showers our beginning to develop generally along and north of the I-64 corridor. Additional convection is setup across north central KY and will also spread east through the afternoon. For now only went with VCTS given the more unknown on who will actually receive a storm within the TAF site area. Would expect based on short term models that the best chances would be generally along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Then the next issue will be the potential for fog/stratus overnight. This will depend on cloud cover and early convection. Right now will keep sites in the MVFR to IFR range for vis restrictions around 5Z to 8Z and only going SCT low deck at this point. Again winds will remain light but gusty conditions with storms can not be ruled out. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...DJ

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