Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 151735 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 135 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR FOUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. THE FORECAST GRIDS OVERALL WERE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE THERE. ONE MINOR CHANGE THAT WAS MADE WAS TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES THROUGH 19 OR 20Z TODAY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE AND A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING OFF THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED INCLUSION OF FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT BEING AFFECTED BY SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UPDATING THE FREEZE WARNING PRODUCT IN THE NEXT 15 OR 20 MINUTES AS WELL BEFORE BEGINNING WORK ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE OUT DATED MORNING WORDING AND TO UPDATE THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION PROGRESSION IN THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT. OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS ACTUALLY STILL IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS HAS BEEN SPOT ON. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WILL NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATE BEFORE 1 PM TO HOPEFULLY EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY...THE IMPACTFUL SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA AND OR TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX BY THEN. THE FREEZE WARNING PRODUCT IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THAT PRODUCT AS WELL WITH THE 1 PM FORECAST UPDATE. WILL BE WORKING ON THE TAF IN THE MEANTIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SNOW THAN RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT GENERALLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOREHEAD TO CAMPTON TO LONDON COULD SEE AROUND HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH NOON TODAY. WE HAVE RECEIVED ABOUT HALF AN INCH AT THE WEATHER OFFICE SO FAR TODAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS COULD STILL RECEIVE UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET. ALSO REMOVED THE PRE FIRST PERIOD FROM THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 COLD FRONT HAS JUST CLEARED THE THE LAST OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH ALL LOCATIONS NOW SEEING TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALLING. BASED ON THE SPEED OF TEMPERATURE FALL...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DROP UNDER FREEZING BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY WARM TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING DRIVE. OVERALL...FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE SHAPE...WILL FINE TUNE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WEATHER.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF HUNTINGTON...TO JUST EAST OF JACKSON...TO NEAR MIDDLESBORO THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE PASSING FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE MORNING. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW FOR MOST AREAS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING WELL UNDER FREEZING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS. BASED ON EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. WHILE LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED...SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR. THUS...PLAN TO ISSUE AN ELEVATION BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY AS TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S OR 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...BUT DRY AIR SHOULD OVERWHELM THE CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS ON A GENERAL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL SET UP A RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED WELL INTO THE 20S AND THE COLDER VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS WARRANTS THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. A BIG DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WE START OFF COLD...BUT SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S OR LOWER 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS BIG DIURNAL CURVE WILL FEATURE SOME VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DIFFERENCES STILL ARISE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERNS ARE NOT DISSIMILAR...AND A COMPROMISE/BLEND WILL BE USED. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST WILL BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR AIR MASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY...AND SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SHOULD RESULT. WILL EXPECT FROST IN MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...WHICH COULD CUT INTO COOLING AND FROST POTENTIAL. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AT MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN ANY GIVEN FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MOVES OUT TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DETAILS STILL LOOK MURKY...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOWING A SYSTEM... HAVE USED POPS RISING TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SJS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE AREA. JKL AND LOZ COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD CREATE ANY REAL ISSUES FOR AVIATORS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA AND LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PERSIST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY BETWEEN 1 AND 3Z TONIGHT.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
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&& $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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