Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 031903 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BROKEN UP AND A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. AS WELL...SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS. HAVE LOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD... ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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