Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 060855 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH DAWN BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT...WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE RIDGES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE COLDEST VALLEYS LOOK TO STILL MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS...BUT BASED ON THE CURRENT RATE OF DROP AND PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS...DID SCALE BACK THE COOL OFF JUST A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB. UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY. ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-8K FEET AGL RANGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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