Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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695 FXUS63 KJKL 161934 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 234 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 200 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017 Hourly weather grids have been freshened up based on recent satellite and observation trends. The warm front continues to lift northeast across the area and temperatures have climbed into the 60s in many locations and into the upper 60s in some locations. Some showers should encroach on the region shortly after sunset. UPDATE Issued at 1120 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017 Hourly grids were updated for the lingering fog on some of the eastern ridgetops and to account for the light showers that are moving through Northeast KY and into the Big Sandy Region. Current satellite imagery shows an area of clearing over northern and central parts of the area in which some locations are experiencing their first sunshine in several days as the area has been in the proximity of the frontal zone since late last week. This area is not that large and should be short lived in any given location as those areas likely will fill in with cumulus or more mid and high clouds will move back in on southwest flow. The warm front is lifting north across the area and many locations should reach the 60s this afternoon. Hourly grids were also updated based on recent observations. UPDATE Issued at 553 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017 The fog has been fairly erratic and therefore did keep the SPS going given the uncertainty in the valley locales. Some of the sites to the south have already seen wholesale improvements and would think this will be the story through the morning. No major changes needed this update. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017 Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved east and is parked along the Mid Atlantic Coast this morning. That said, the winds are generally out of the northeast and east this hour. The fog is fairly sporadic this morning. therefore do not see a need for a NPW this morning, but will keep the SPS going at this point. Today the quasi stationary front is expected to lift north through the day and bring unseasonably warm air mass into the region. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid and upper 60s in near the TN border and this will lead to near record high temperatures. Also some of the short term guidance and even the lower resolution guidance would suggest showers form near the warm front. Therefore kept some mostly isolated POPs nearer the boundary. Tonight all eyes toward low pressure across Central Oklahoma this morning. There is good agreement on this vertically stacked system ejecting into the Upper Midwest through the night. A trialing cold front will slowly press east along with jet energy. The first part of this will be upper level jet dynamics punch into the region, as left exit region comes through the Ohio Valley leading to divergence aloft. This will induce a moderate 850mb jet approaching 60 knots by early Tuesday morning. These elements will lead to deep layer moderate to strong omega seen in the time heights, as mid to upper level short waves ride the flow into the region. Therefore could not argue with CAT POPs as we move toward dawn hours on Tuesday morning. Right now best axis of precip is lining up in areas generally along and north of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Overall amounts will be around a quarter to three tenths of an inch through the morning. That said, the dynamics are such that a few rumbles of thunder would be possible and this lines up with best MUCAPE and SPC. Now this is a two part system as the cold front will lag behind the initial mid and upper level dynamics. The front will approach the region on Tuesday with band of precip moving through from west to east through the afternoon. Did opt to go a bit lower QPF wise for the far SE, given the better dynamics are early in the day mainly north of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Either way did keep CAT POPs given the chances of seeing measurable precip are reasonably high. Also keep the slight thunder along the highest areas of POPs through the day and again this seems to follow best areas of MUCAPE. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 234 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017 Decent model agreement continues through the rest of the week and into next weekend...leading to good forecast confidence. Starting off Wednesday, lots of moisture will be in place to lead to some lingering drizzle, especially with moisture extending just above the low level inversion. Model soundings support cloud cover holding through the day and this would likely keep highs in the 40s behind the departing cold front. High/mid clouds will already be on the increase ahead of our next system Wednesday night. In fact, whatever clearing we see will be short lived Wednesday night. A shortwave trough will then move across the region from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. Good moisture and tremendous forcing/lift will lead to widespread rain, especially for the Thursday night period. As the system exits north on Friday, rain chances will diminish. Shortwave ridging will slide across the area Friday night and Saturday, providing a dry period. This will also set the stage for some sunshine on Saturday which will help boost temperatures well into the 60s. This will probably be our best chance at reaching the highs on guidance for the whole week. Clouds and rain chances will limit temperatures the rest of the week, but we will stay well above normal regardless. A deeper storm system may develop by Sunday, bringing rain chances back into the area once again. Despite the active weather, all of the systems seem progressive this week, keeping any flooding concerns at bay. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 140 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017 As a warm front continues to advance north and east, vis and or cig has improved to VFR in the warm sector. VFR should continue until a shortwave trough and cold front begin to approach the area tonight and into Tuesday. As the lower levels begin to saturate again tonight as showers return, MVFR should return from northwest to southeast between 2Z and 9Z. South to southeast winds should remain on the light side through 6Z to 9Z, and then begin to increase and veer to the southwest as the front approaches. Thunderstorms will also be possible beginning around 9Z and then lingering as late as 22Z in the far southeast as the front moves in. Low level wind shear will be possible as winds aloft increase ahead of the front and a LLJ increases after 6Z. However, this threat will go away as the thunderstorm threat arrives. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP

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