Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 260931 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 431 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE AN EXITING SHIELD OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE MESOSCALE BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA AS THE MAIN LOW WINDS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITHIN THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL...SOME VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG WITH A HALF INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL WITHIN AN HOUR. ELSEWHERE...THE HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAS EXITED AS WELL AND SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN. WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING THE WSW EARLY IN A COUPLE HOURS HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THIS AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE FAR AND FEW IN BETWEEN. DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH LIKELY SQUEEZING OUT ANY MOISTURE LEFT IN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WITH THIS...FLURRIES MAY HANG AROUND ALL NIGHT AND INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE COLD AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE ENDING DURING THE MORNING. THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT... BETWEEN THE MELTING SNOW...ANY WET SPOTS ON THE ROAD...THE NEW SNOW COVER...THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN...AND ANY THREAT THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSE...MAY DECIDE TO KEEP AN SPS GOING TO HIGHLIGHT THESE NUISANCES THAT WILL IMPACT TRAVEL TODAY AND TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE PART OF A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP BROAD SW FLOW AND GIVEN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SEE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MAY MIX ON SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. THEN WE SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD EAST AND SURFACE HIGH SETUP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE PRECIP MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE WARM FRONT OVER TAKES THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND DRAGGING A SURFACE LOW NE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE CERTAINLY DETAILS THAT DO NOT MATCH UP PERFECTLY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS JUNCTURE. ONE OF THESE BEING THE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE CONCERN REMAINS EVEN GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES MUCH OF THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT THIS POINT...AS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE PRESENTED WITH BROAD SW FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE AND AT TIMES SATURATED COLUMN TO BE PRESENT...WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWATS FROM TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH. WHILE THIS WILL BE SEVERAL PERIOD EVENT WOULD STILL THINK THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO CONCERNS PARTICULARLY SINCE SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 LOW LEVEL CIGS AND SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN RANGE TONIGHT. THESE BELOW IFR CIGS AT TIMES AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BESIDES SYM THROUGH 14Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND A PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.