Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281910 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 309 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 There is a contrast in observed temps dependent on occurrence of sunshine ahead of the cold front versus clouds/precip behind it. Have incorporated this into the forecast grids, using the HRRR to time the boundary southeast through the area late today. UPDATE Issued at 1112 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Models are in good agreement for this afternoon and evening regarding precip associated with the cold front and upper low. Showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually progress into the JKL forecast area from the NW, but probably only make it into the far NW part of the area before nightfall. Some further progress is expected after nightfall, but loss of heating should lead to a gradual decline in activity. Have updated the forecast for this timing. UPDATE Issued at 640 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Freshened up the hourly temps to reflect most recent obs. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 The large upper level low continues to gradually sink southward from the Great Lakes region towards the Ohio Valley this morning. The process of this low reaching Kentucky has actually slowed down a bit in models, delaying further the increase in sky cover and rain chances this afternoon. In fact, high-res models bring rain/storms into the far northern counties closer to 21Z. The models then develop a convective linear feature along the cold front as it pushes further into our area closer to 00Z Thursday. The best chances for thunderstorms, including some small hail and strong winds (with about 900 DCAPE) will likely be contained to the far northern counties during the late afternoon period. But since the frontal passage will take place mostly outside of peak heating late this evening, thunderstorms shouldn`t pose much of a threat for the majority of the area. Shower chances will then continue through Thursday evening as the upper low continues moving over Kentucky. Thunderstorms will again be possible Thursday afternoon and evening with ample upper level dynamics and modest instability in the area. Due to clear skies and dry air in place, lows this morning are expected to dip into the upper 30s in the deepest valleys and in the low and mid 40s elsewhere. Even with the dry air in place, some fog is possible in the deeper valleys and near bodies of water this morning. Afternoon temperatures should be near average today, in the mid 70s. But this will depend on how quickly the cloud cover increases this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be closer to normal (around 50 degrees) with overcast skies and showers in the area. Thursday will be on the chilly side with highs only in the low and mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A blocky long wave pattern will be in full swing across the CONUS through the weekend. Starting out, an upper level low will be entrenched across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, with ridging across the Plains, while troughing works in across the West Coast. The models have maintained fairly good continuity, gradually shunting the upper level low back to the north towards the Great Lakes, as the ridge slowly slides east towards the Mississippi Valley, and troughing becomes more established across the western CONUS. Model differences in timing and amplitude become more apparent by early next week, as the trough swings east into the Plains. Cool conditions, along with a threat of some showers, and perhaps a few storms during peak heating, will continue across eastern Kentucky to end the work week. Depending upon the exact position of the cutoff low and an associated dry slot, Friday may be drier than currently forecast, as depicted by the latest ECMWF. The last of the showers will end by late Saturday afternoon, as the low pulls far enough away, and heights recover. Dry weather will ensue Saturday night and looks to last into early and perhaps middle of next week, depending on the amplitude of the ridge. Temperatures will gradually warm up across eastern Kentucky through early next week, with a few 80s for highs returning by next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 VFR conditions dominated at the start of the period. There were some diminishing showers moving through the far northern portion of the forecast area, mainly north of I-64. Much more precipitation was a bit further to the N & W, from SW OH to W KY. The precipitation was associated with a surface cold front and a large upper level low pressure system. The cold front will move southeast through the JKL forecast area late today and this evening, accompanied by showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Conditions will take a downturn once the precip and front arrive, with a deterioration to IFR forecast for late tonight and lasting into the day Thursday. Improvement to MVFR is possible before the end of the period. Southwest winds will occur ahead of the front this afternoon, with some gusts near 20kts. Winds will ease behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

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