Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231143 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 743 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 743 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 Fog has been rather dense along the river valleys this morning, so opted for an SPS for the next few hours until the fog lifts. Otherwise, no changes to the current forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 Upper level ridge and surface high pressure will remain in place this weekend with persistence the way to go with highs and lows. Thus, will maintain warm afternoon highs in the forecast with cool morning lows. This mornings fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. With another day of good mixing with dewpoints potentially dipping into the upper 50s, the fog tonight should be more limited to the river valleys and not quite as dense either. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 An area of high pressure and an upper level ridge will remain in control of the weather through midweek. This will continue to promote above normal temperatures, generally in the mid and upper 80s. By Thursday, heights will begin to decrease across Kentucky as an upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will also make its way SE towards the CWA, traversing sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. Latest model trends continue to show this front losing considerable strength by the time it reaches eastern KY, due in part to the parent low pressure system moving much farther northward, well into NE Canada. The ECMWF model still supports a dry forecast as the front moves over, while the GFS is dry up until Thursday afternoon, at which point diurnal influences will help to produce some light showers with low QPF values. Continued to go with the blend between the two, which supports only isolated showers at best Thursday afternoon. Cooler temps and lack of instability will prevent thunder wording. Behind this cold front, another reinforcing cold front is expected to end out the period. These two systems will bring the push of more seasonable temperatures into the CWA to end out the week and through the weekend. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 Dense fog will lift over the next hour or two before giving way to VFR conditions for the balance of the day. We should see slightly drier air mix down to the surface this afternoon, and that may keep the fog a little more limited tonight. However, we should still see some dense fog right along the rivers and streams. Given the lesser degree of fog, limited in more in the TAFs for the upcoming night, except at KSJS where dewpoints may stay a tad higher. Fog forecast will increase a bit pending how much dry air does in fact mix down this afternoon.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KAS

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