Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 232325 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 725 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 555 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Surface high has moved east and we are starting to see a bit more moisture stream northeast. Therefore we are seeing a increase in mid to high level clouds this afternoon. The temps could be a bit tricky in some of the more prone valley sites (depending on clouds) but will have minimal impact. Little if any changes needed with this update but did a quick freshening up of temps/dews/winds with latest obs. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 248 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Strong surface ridge remains to our east this afternoon with moisture surging back northward across the lower and mid Mississippi river valley on the western flank of this high. As the high continues to slowly shift eastward tonight and especially Wednesday, this moisture will eventually pivot back into eastern Kentucky with the humidity on the increase. A band of mid level clouds will work east early Wednesday morning. While activity should be sparse with this moisture, there could be just enough lift to spark off a few sprinkles. As the day wears on...low level moisture should start to increase and this could aid in a shower or two along the high terrain of Tennessee and Virginia and could sneak just far enough north for a shower to develop in southern Kentucky. This shouldn`t be a big deal as widespread forcing is absent during the day. Tomorrow night is a bit more uncertain as it looks like we may have to watch how things unfold upstream as we could see convection morph into a MCS and drop east and south into the area overnight. Right now, opted to keep pops low with such uncertainty on where convection will develop and ultimately track...but it does appear the best chances to see some rain would be along or north of I-64. Temperatures will turn a bit milder tonight through Wednesday night as dewpoints creep upward, and a more humid airmass takes over. Lows tonight will remain in the 60s, with readings around 70 by tomorrow night. Highs on Wednesday will climb into the mid 80s, despite the increase in cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 349 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure which has encompassed the Ohio River Valley during the short term will have pushed east and along the Atlantic coast by 12Z Thursday. Return flow will continue to pull warm southerly air into the region during the day Thursday, boosting daytime temps to near 90 degrees once more, with decent humidity values. Meanwhile, broad upper level ridging will remain in control across much of the southeast conus. A closed low which will traverse the central Canada/US border through the short term will begin to lose strength as it nears the Great Lakes region Thursday, foregoing forward propagation with the stationary high ridge in place. A surface low pressure system will follow along, with a cold front expanding southeast across the the central plains. However, with the weakening low and loss of forward motion, the cold front will start to sheer out and lose strength before ever reaching the Ohio River Valley. So what does this mean for eastern KY? With our location between the slowly approaching cold front, and the return flow of the exiting high pressure system, the stage will be set for possible convection. However, with upper level ridging still in predominate control, all forcing will be limited to the low levels with little upper level dynamics. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring some isolated pops into the region Thursday. However, the location and timing of this is still somewhat very uncertain, and will likely be limited to peak diurnal heating to produce enough lift. The frontal zone finally progresses southeast through the state late Thursday night and into the day Friday. But even then it will be very weak, and the lack of forcing, in addition to two strong high pressure centers on either side of the frontal boundary, will keep pops isolated, with only light QPF expected. In fact, we may not even see much in the way of cloud cover as it passes over, and any convection that does develop will be dependent on afternoon diurnal development. High pressure should take hold post frontal Saturday and Sunday. However, another shortwave will move across the north central conus through the weekend, which may pull enough moisture from the south to impact portions of KY for the latter half of the weekend and into the first part of the week. Unfortunately the models are not in good agreement on this feature, or the depth of moisture. So once again, will stick with the blend of models for pops during this point to account for all the model differences. This kept isolated pops across portions of the CWA Saturday afternoon, and isolated to scattered chances again Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. Temperatures will modify little during the extended period, despite the frontal passage, with no strong wind shifts in place. Expect upper 80s to around 90 degrees and decent humidity each day through the weekend. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Surface high pressure has moved east into the Mid Atlantic region, and Consequently we will begin to get back into the return moisture side of the high. Right now this will only lead to a increase in mid to high clouds in terms of aviation. Also light winds will remain the story for the TAF period.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...DJ

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