Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250704 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 304 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 More of the same to report in the short term portion of the forecast. The model data all still suggesting a warm and muggy air mass will be in place across the region for the next several days. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal for the rest of the week, with day time highs routinely topping out in the 80s each day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible today through tomorrow as a weak wave of low pressure moves from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions. The best time for thunderstorm activity will likely be from the late morning through early evening hours today and tomorrow. Winds will generally be from the south at 5 to 10kts during the day time periods and light and variable tonight. Some patchy valley fog will be possible early this morning and again late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Models continue to be in good agreement with the overall pattern heading into the weekend. A summer like pattern will be setting up across the area with mid and upper level ridging over the southeast United States, and the jet stream lifting northward. We will remain on the periphery of the upper level ridging, which means occasional isolated to scattered convection can be expected for late in the week and into the early part of the weekend. By late in the weekend, models continue to indicate a tropical or subtropical wave moving onshore somewhere in the southeast United States. Exactly if and where this occurs is still in question, with the 12z GFS suggesting the system would move northwest from South Carolina bringing deep moisture along with increasing rain chances to eastern KY early next week. However, the 12Z ECMWF indicates impacts with this system will remain east of the Appalachians. Both the GFS and ECMWF are continuing trends they`ve shown in recent runs. So while they are not in agreement with each other they are consistent. Confidence in any specific model solutions for Sunday onward is lower than normal, but based on latest guidance and the standard model blend will end up with a forecast with daily rain chances increasing each day from Sunday through Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid level deck will overspread the area overnight. Could see some patchy fog in the most sheltered valley locations but not expecting any influence at area terminals at this time. Winds will be light until tomorrow when they increase from the southwest at 5-10 kts. Mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms will move across eastern Kentucky beginning early this morning and lasting through early Wednesday evening. These showers and storms should remain scattered enough to not warrant mentioning in the tafs at this time. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...AR

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