Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291955 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 355 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LACK OF A CAP HAVE ALLOWED A FEW CELLS TO DEVELOP THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN FAIRLY SPARSE AND THAT SHOULD BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S AT MOST PLACES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A BROAD AND RATHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH SLOW MOVING BATCHES OF ENERGY CAUGHT OVER THE REGION...STUCK BETWEEN MARGINALLY HIGHER HEIGHTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM TOWARDS DAWN WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY SETTING UP. SUNDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH MORE CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER...BUT WITH CONDITIONS EQUAL OR EVEN MORE HUMID THAN TODAY. AGAIN PATCHY FOG AND A MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE DRIER MAV NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...BOTH THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE FEATURES THAT WILL PREVENT US FROM HAVING A COMPLETELY DRY AND CLEAR WEEK AHEAD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER...KEEPING STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL. HOWEVER...DURING THE DAY...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL RESULT IN SOME ISL TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. OUR BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW THAT WAS TS ERIKA MOVES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT FAR SE KY. IT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO THE NE HOWEVER...WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND THE DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS KY BY MID WEEK. MOST OF THE WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT THE SURFACE...AND FROM THE WSW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN OTHER WORDS...IT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NOT GOING TO RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER...SO DID KEEP MENTION OF TSRA IN FORECAST...BUT DON/T EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME VERY TALL OR BE FAST MOVERS. NOT TO MENTION LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON/T SHOW LI/S BELOW -5C AND CAPE ABOVE 1500 J/KG /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY/...SO NOTHING TOO CONCERNABLE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AT THIS POINT. THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE CONTAINED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD SEE UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A 90 DEGREE SPOT OR TWO TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...BUT THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE SPARED. THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH JUST SOME LIGHT FOG ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEYS... POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE SME AND LOZ TAF SITES. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED STORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT SYM. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF

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