Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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374 FXUS63 KJKL 191730 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 130 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 Surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered just to our south across the greater Tennessee Valley. This is providing clear and calm conditions across eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Only minor changes needed to account for latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 950 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 Visible Satellite still showing fog and/or stratus in a few of the river valleys this morning. This will continue to burn off through late morning. Otherwise nearby high pressure will continue to provide clear and calm conditions across eastern Kentucky. Only minor changes needed to grids for latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 628 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 Valley fog showing up well on the GOES-16 RGB Nighttime Microphysics channel this morning. This fog, much like the past several mornings will burn off by 10 am this morning. We`ve had several valley locations dip into the 30s once again this morning. All in all, forecast is in good shape with o changes planned to the forecast early this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 252 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 Strong ridging will continue to hold over the region through Friday with heights continuing to build. This will allow for a continued warming trend with highs into the mid 70s today and upper 70s by Friday. Overnight lows Thursday night will remain chilly with lows into the upper 30s to around 40 with ridges staying closer to the upper 40s. Area of dense valley fog will burn off by 10 am this morning with more dense valley fog expected tonight. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 420 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 An anomalously strong upper ridge will be over the southeast CONUS as the period starts, providing dry and mild weather for the local area. An upper trough over the western CONUS will be heading east and butting up against the ridge, with a low expected to close off near the lower Mississipi Valley Sunday night. An associated surface low should also develop, with the system then tracking northeast toward the Great Lakes. The timing/track of this system is still in question. Although precip should occur with the system, exactly when is still a bit unclear, and have chosen to avoid categorical POPs. The upper low will be absorbed back into the westerlies as another substantial trough drops southeast toward the eastern CONUS early in the work week. This large scale trough will be responsible for a deep chilly air mass moving into the area. The heart of the cold air is expected to remain to our north, but it could still result in enough instability to allow showers to linger through the end of the period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 An area of surface high pressure will continue to provide a platform for clear and calm conditions across eastern Kentucky. The one issue will be mainly river valley fog late tonight into Friday morning and this could be below a quarter mile in spots. The fog should remain limited at TAF sites, but the potential for some fog creeping out of the river valley at SME/LOZ seems reasonable. Also the best chances based on the LAMP probabilities resides in these locations. This fog will clear between 12 and 15Z friday morning and VFR conditions will resume. The winds wills remain light through the TAF period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...DJ

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