Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 110927 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 427 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 427 AM EST MON DEC 11 2017 A complicated forecast is in store for the short term across eastern Kentucky. Light precipitation is expected to begin moving into the area late tonight ahead of an approaching and fast moving area of low pressure aloft. Precipitation should begin as drizzle and then transition to a mix of freezing drizzle, drizzle, and light snow showers during the early morning hours just before sunrise on Tuesday. Once we get more ice aloft early Tuesday morning, the precipitation should then transition over to a mix of rain and snow showers, and then all snow showers as temperatures fall to around freezing by late morning and early afternoon. There could be enough ice accumulation to create some slick spots on area roadways early Tuesday morning, so caution should be used if out driving during that time. Any snow accumulations on Tuesday should be light and confined mainly to ridgetops, grassy areas, and elevated surfaces. Temperatures will be fairly mild today, with highs forecast to reach the mid to upper 40s for most locations. A few spots along the Tennessee border may see the lower 50s, and a few north locales may only reach the lower 40s. We will see dry conditions today through early tonight along with generally partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows should fall to around freezing. Tuesdays highs are expected to max out in the low to mid 30s, most likely early in the morning before the bulk of the expected snow begins to fall. Temperatures will then likely begin falling during the day, as our upper level weather system begins to pull east of the area. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM EST SUN DEC 10 2017 The models are in generally good agreement with an amplified long wave pattern to remain in place through the end of the work week, before transitioning to more zonal-like flow for next weekend. For the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, this will mean a continuation of well below normal temperatures through Friday, well as a few bouts of light snow/rain at times. Temperatures will then rebound to the 50s for highs by next weekend, with at least a small chance of rain threatening the region. On Tuesday, cold air advection will be ongoing, as an upper level trough is reinforced across the Eastern Conus. Some upslope snow showers will be on tap for eastern Kentucky through the day, and given the available forcing and favorable wind direction, have gone slightly higher than the blended POPs. POPs will taper off into Tuesday evening, with middle teens expected for lows by Wednesday morning. Have favored the valleys west of I-75 for the coldest temperatures, given the thinner clouds. Another front will approach Thursday into Friday, bringing additional small chances of rain/snow, depending on the timing and temperature profile. This system looks weaker, and the ECMWF and GFS differ on the evolution of the small scale features. Temperatures will continue to average below normal through Friday, before a warm up ensues for the weekend, as heights recover across the area. Another front will approach sometime this weekend, but given the model disagreement, have undercut the POPs a bit until the guidance can gel better.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST MON DEC 11 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly clear to partly cloudy skies to the TAF sites through the end of the period. Winds should remain out of the southwest or southwest through out the period, peaking at around 5KTs Monday afternoon. Otherwise expect VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the end of the period along with dry weather. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.