Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 052004 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING TONIGHT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO RECEDE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10- 15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL ALSO WIND DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...KAS

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