Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241712 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 112 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1150 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the area on northwest winds. This will just be the beginning of a stretch of cool dry weather with even cooler and drier air on the way to start the new week. Have updated NDFD and associated products based on latest observational trends but this resulted in only minor changes to the ongoing forecast for today into tonight. UPDATE Issued at 808 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 Made only minor updates to blend obs into the forecast database. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 334 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy tracked east northeast through KY ahead of a cold front on Friday evening. The significant precip ended as the tropical remnants departed, and the Flash Flood Watch was dropped. The original cold front had become ill defined and was in the process of catching up and merging with the soon to be decayed tropical remnants. High pressure building in behind the cold front will bring much drier air to our region this weekend. Any lingering showers will end early this morning as drier air overtakes the area. This will set us up for a pleasant weekend with comfortable humidity and below normal temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 343 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 Models remain in good agreement with a area of Canadian high pressure building southeast toward the region and remaining in control of the sensible weather through midweek. This will lead to fair weather but upper level trough will also dig across the area. This trough will lead to below normal temperatures, as NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles standardized anomalies shows significant signals for below normal temperatures at multiple levels. Given this high temperatures will top out on the low to mid 70s through Tuesday and low temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 50s through Wednesday morning. Now there have been some inconsistencies in the models on moisture for Tuesday morning and therefore kept with the drier model blend for now. The trough does pull east and height rises will ensue across the region. This will lead to warming temperatures and increases in moisture, as we see return flow around the aforementioned surface high now east of eastern KY. Therefore by the end of the period shower and thunderstorm chances increase amid warming temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s and increased instability with MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The biggest issue here will be does a surface front make it south or is this more of a diurnally driven/orographic lift situation. Given the lack of consistency here kept the blend approach which may be too high given the synoptic frontal boundary reflection from the Canadian model. However, blended POPs still remain chance and was comfortable with that at this stage of the forecast process. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 Cooler and drier air has invaded the region after the passage of a cold front last night. Fair weather cumulus and some cirrus will be the rule today, with VFR conditions expected. The cumulus should mostly be scattered but some broken ceilings around 3500 feet are possible especially across the northern part of the forecast area. The cumulus will diminish this evening. Some fog is forecast to form in the river valleys late tonight but is not expected to affect the TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail again on Sunday.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SBH

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