Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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553 FXUS63 KJKL 291927 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 327 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 200 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Just a quick update to fine tune PoPs and thunder chances through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Also adjusted the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1050 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 14z sfc analysis shows a stacked low descending into the southern Ohio Valley. This is bringing with it plenty of clouds and shower bands. The bulk of the showers (and a few thunderstorms) are moving north to northwest through the eastern portion of the CWA. The morning fog has, for the most part, broken up or lifted across the area. Temperatures are fairly uniform through eastern Kentucky - in the middle to upper 50s with dewpoints similar. Winds are generally from the north to northwest at around 5 mph. Based on the latest near term guidance, expect the clouds and shower threat to continue through the afternoon, largely affecting the eastern and northern parts of the CWA. Will continue the chance for thunderstorms into the evening with these showers. The grids have been updated with these thoughts in mind along with incorporating the latest obs and trends. The grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshened set of zones. UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 We should see a lull in precipitation this morning as the lingering overnight showers exit the area. So have trended back pops mainly in the western half of the forecast area throughout the morning hours. Also refreshed the hourly temps to reflect most recent obs. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Scattered showers continue to progress eastward through far East Kentucky this morning, well behind the cold frontal boundary that has already exited to the southeast. The deep upper level low that provided us with this showers is currently over southern Indiana and is expected to push into central Kentucky today. With the low centered over our forecast area, skies will remain mostly overcast throughout the day with high temperatures only reaching the lower 60s. With upper level dynamics in place, showers and a slight chance of thunder will once again be possible today, peaking in the afternoon hours. Though, most high-res models keep the best chance for rain/storms in the far east and over West Virginia. Depending on how the upper low pivots across the area, along with the position the upper level jet, this certainly seems possible. Instability wanes tonight, and models agree on a dry slot wrapping around the upper low, with the result being most precip drying up by dawn on Friday. The upper low is then progged to wobble a bit northwest throughout the day on Friday as the dry slot works further into our area. High temperatures should rebound slightly into the upper 60s and low 70s Friday afternoon as long as the dry slot comes to fruition and skies clear up a bit. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 The extended period should feature isolated rain showers to begin the period Saturday and Sunday, as a slow moving area of low pressure slowly rotates through the region. They system will have only meager lift an moisture associated with it, so any showers that form with it should be isolated to scattered at best, mainly for the western and northern portions of the forecast area. Once the upper low rotates out of the Ohio Valley and out of our area Sunday evening, the remainder of the extended should be dry and pleasant. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to settle over the region through out the upcoming work week, which would bring mostly clear to partly cloud skies, dry conditions, and light winds to eastern Kentucky. Daily highs are expected to top out in the 70s for most locations. A few spots along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway corridor may reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. Nightly lows should bottom out in the 50s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Cigs should continue to improve throughout the afternoon with vis restrictions only due to showers or a stray storm. Later tonight, dependent on how much low level moisture sticks around and how many locations see rain today, fog will be possible. In addition to the fog, cigs will also fall through the night with IFR and MVFR to be common. Look for conditions to improve to VFR at most sites Friday morning. Winds will remain around 5 knots or less throughout the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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