Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 110214 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1014 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1014 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...ALL SEEMS TO BE CLEAR AT THE MOMENT ACROSS THE CWA. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST REFLECTED CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SPAWNED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS THEN POPPED UP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND SLOWLY FOLLOWED THE OUTFLOW DIRECTION. ONE SUCH AREA WAS ALONG THE ROCKCASTLE AND MADISON COUNTY BORDERS...WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPAWNED A DECENT RAIN SHOWER...AND THEN REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY WITH THE FAR EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR A COUPLE HOURS NOW. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS SHOWER IS FINALLY SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND...WITH ITS OWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS WELL. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS TO MAKE SURE ISOLATED COVERAGE WAS INCLUDED FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS SHOWER...AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ALOFT A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA AND BRING WITH IT A DRIER...HOTTER AIR MASS FROM OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO SUMMER TIME LEVELS BY TOMORROW UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE. BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. DESPITE IT BEING MID JULY IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR EASTERN KY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MCS ACTIVITY LIKELY DETERMINING OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN AND SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. LAST NIGHT...BASED THE 0Z FORECAST ON THE FACT THAT THERE WAS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN...AND SO CHOSE TO BACK OFF ON THE FOG POTENTIAL. THIS PROVED TO BE A MISTAKE AS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY KSJS AND KLOZ...WERE ABLE TO REBOUND ON THEIR DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AND TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAWN. NOW LOOKING AT THE 0Z FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS UPSTREAM. IF HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF...SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS POSSIBLY KEEPING SOME OF THE DENSEST FOG AT BAY. CHOSE TO GEAR THE TAFS TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST BASED ON THE OBS FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT ONLY DROPPING KSJS AND KLOZ DOWN TO IFR INSTEAD OF THE LIFR CONDITIONS THEY EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW

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