Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 150045 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 745 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 745 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018 Mid/high clouds have been a bit more extensive than forecast this evening. Otherwise, the inherited forecast looks on track and few changes were made.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 238 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018 All eyes are centered on a clipper system that will be diving southeast across the western great lakes into tomorrow, before crossing the northern Ohio valley region and southern great lakes Monday night into Tuesday. The first chances for snow will come late tonight into early Monday morning as a warm front crosses the area. Low level dry air will be firmly entrenched with moisture recovery very poor. This fact, combined with southeast flow developing off the higher terrain will keep measurable snow chances fairly low tonight. However, better chances could be seen in the bluegrass region as Bufkit soundings show a fairly saturated column by 09z tonight. In fact, all operational models are spitting out some liquid across this region. Given the potential for a low QPF/high pop set up, have opted to go up to likely pops for the bluegrass region late tonight. With moderately high snow ratios, we could see upwards of a quarter of an inch of snow in the bluegrass. Expect mainly flurries elsewhere, but trends will need to be monitored to see if the snow ends up being a bit more widespread. As for lows tonight, we should see a steep drop in the eastern valleys this evening, likely reaching the single digits by late evening. However, as clouds thicken up tonight, we will see temperatures level off before starting to rise towards dawn. Kept pretty close to previous forecast that had this idea covered well. On Monday, we will see a break from snow chances as we await the arctic front that will be pushing southeast across Indiana and western Kentucky. This front will be encroaching upon our northern counties by late in the day with snow chances returning to the area from north to south late Monday through Monday night. Model QPF continues to stay fairly light Monday night, but snow ratios remain fairly elevated. Thus, it looks like good potential for 1 to 2 inches of snow for much of the area Monday night. Snowfall in southeast Kentucky may stay lighter as precipitation will arrive very late Monday night, with the bulk of the precipitation coming on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 412 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018 An amplified long wave pattern will continue to rule across the CONUS through the rest of the week. A positively tilted trough will start off across the central CONUS, with a ridge moving through the Continental Divide, and another trough impinging on the Pacific Northwest. The central CONUS trough will move to the east through Wednesday, escorting an arctic front through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Light snow and a reinforcing shot of very cold air will result. The pattern then modifies through the rest of the week, as the eastern Pacific trough makes its way onshore, resulting in generally rising heights east of the Mississippi through the first half of the weekend. The trough will eventually move into the Plains by Sunday, with falling heights across the Mississippi Valley and rain chances gradually increasing across our region. Light snow and colder temperatures will be ongoing on Tuesday, as the arctic front moves off to the southeast, while upper level support from a right entrance region of a jet streak lingers across southeastern Kentucky through the afternoon. Total snowfall out of this system will be in the 1 to 3 inch range, with the highest terrain across our southeast likely seeing the higher end totals as surface winds veer around to the northwest. Lingering snow showers will taper off to flurries from north to south Tuesday evening, with flurries likely being seen at times through Wednesday morning, as moisture lingers in the -12C to -18C range. Lows Wednesday morning will be in the single digits, with clouds likely preventing anything much colder. Temperatures will rebound to around 20 degrees on Wednesday, with valleys likely dipping into the single digits once again Wednesday night. Readings could approach zero or colder depending on the remaining snowpack and the proximity of the surface ridge. Temperatures will then moderate from Thursday through Saturday, as heights recover aloft and the surface high shifts to our east. Highs will be in the 50s by Saturday. Some places will approach 60 degrees by Sunday, with at least a small threat of rain showers by that time. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 745 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018 Although ceilings are expected through most of the period, conditions will be predominantly VFR. An exception could be in areas near/north of I-64 around dawn, as a brief period of light snow occurs with a potential for MVFR at times. The same area can expect light snow to move back in from the northwest toward the end of the period, along with MVFR conditions. Winds will be light and variable until late morning Monday, when they will pick up around 10 kts out of the southwest for the afternoon.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

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