Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280731 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 331 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY. THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING. OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO FINALLY SWING EAST TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL PUSH BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY FIRE ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK THROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR LIKE THE BEST DAYS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HIGHS APPROACHING 90. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN PEAK ON SUNDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER TWO INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF KJKL TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN BORDER. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH FOG IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JMW

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