Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281805 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAS FILLED IN NICELY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TARGET...HOWEVER DID UP THE SKY COVER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 UNSEASONABLE COOL START THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE W TO NW FLOW HAS SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE QUITE WELL WHEN COMPARING THIS WITH THE UA DATA. THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO WRAP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OFF A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE IN EASTERN KY WE ARE ENJOYING NW/W FLOW THAT IS USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. GIVEN THIS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE NICE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROP SE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND MAY BE BETTER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE DID KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED AT THIS POINT...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LIFTING FEATURES AND INSTABILITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH MORE APPARENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER/SFC DETAILS AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES. MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENING OUT A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DETAILS AND THEREFORE HOW SENSIBLE WEATHER PLAYS OUT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED SOLUTIONS/GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL DID ALLOW FOR LOWER POPS DURING TIMES OF WEAKER FORCING...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MCS ACTIVITY DURING A WED-THU TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME BUT HAVE QUESTIONS ON MODELS ABILITY TO DETERMINE EXACT TRACKS OF THESE TYPES SYSTEMS SO FAR OUT IN TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS AT AROUND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS DUSK. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS...WILL ALSO LIGHTEN TOWARDS DUSK. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS THE HEART OF IT PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL INCLUDE SOME VCSH BY THE MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO ENGAGE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/RAY AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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