Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS63 KJKL 281725 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
125 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Issued at 125 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Updated the forecast to increase todays high temperatures slightly
across the board and to remove outdated afternoon wording from the
zone forecast text product.
UPDATE Issued at 930 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Based on current obs around the area, any remaining fog has either
lifted into a low stratus deck, or dissipated altogether.
Therefore, the zone forecast text product has been updated to
reflect this. Also ingested recent obs data into the forecast
grids to establish new trends.
UPDATE Issued at 756| AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Have updated to blend early morning obs into the forecast grids,
with little overall impact.
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
A "dirty" subtropical upper ridge persists over the region, but
is weakening. Forecast soundings suggest that daytime heating will
lead to development of scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
With a lack of any significant upper level support, they are
expected to again die out during the evening. The upper ridge will
weaken further on Monday, and surface high pressure is expected to
pass east southeast over the Great Lakes under west northwest flow
aloft. Models indicate advection of somewhat drier low level air
into our area in the flow around the surface high on Monday. This
will probably keep convective precip more limited, and only slight
chance pops are being used.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Our weather pattern looks quiet through the upcoming work week.
The persistent upper level ridge over the East Coast will slide
westward over our region early in the week keeping temperatures
above normal and humidity elevated. An isolated thunderstorm will be
possible over our higher terrain along the VA border in the warm and
muggy airmass Tuesday afternoon. The ridge breaks down by mid week
and we transition to northwest flow aloft. A weak and moisture
starved cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night,
possibly sparking a few thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky
Wednesday afternoon. Surface high pressure will then build in behind
this front for Thursday bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the
The forecast for Friday into the Labor Day weekend is low
confidence. Longer range forecast models want to develop a tropical
system over the Gulf of Mexico and bring it northeast into the
Southeast U.S. as a shortwave dives in from the northwest. The GFS
and GEM bring some moisture into our southeast counties while the
ECMWF keeps everything on the other side of the Appalachian
Mountains. The model blend did offer some PoPs as early as Friday in
our southeast but trimmed this back some with the drier airmass over
our region and the low confidence outcome with the potential
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the end of
the period. FEW to SCT clouds will move across the area today and
tonight. Light and variable winds will again prevail. Some valley
fog is expected to form late tonight, but it is unlikely that any
of the TAF sites will be affected. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will form and move across eastern Kentucky this
afternoon and evening, but should remain scattered enough to not
directly affect any of the TAF sites.