Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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117 FXUS63 KJKL 281725 AAB AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 125 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 125 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Updated the forecast to increase todays high temperatures slightly across the board and to remove outdated afternoon wording from the zone forecast text product. UPDATE Issued at 930 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Based on current obs around the area, any remaining fog has either lifted into a low stratus deck, or dissipated altogether. Therefore, the zone forecast text product has been updated to reflect this. Also ingested recent obs data into the forecast grids to establish new trends. UPDATE Issued at 756| AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Have updated to blend early morning obs into the forecast grids, with little overall impact. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A "dirty" subtropical upper ridge persists over the region, but is weakening. Forecast soundings suggest that daytime heating will lead to development of scattered showers and thunderstorms today. With a lack of any significant upper level support, they are expected to again die out during the evening. The upper ridge will weaken further on Monday, and surface high pressure is expected to pass east southeast over the Great Lakes under west northwest flow aloft. Models indicate advection of somewhat drier low level air into our area in the flow around the surface high on Monday. This will probably keep convective precip more limited, and only slight chance pops are being used. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Our weather pattern looks quiet through the upcoming work week. The persistent upper level ridge over the East Coast will slide westward over our region early in the week keeping temperatures above normal and humidity elevated. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible over our higher terrain along the VA border in the warm and muggy airmass Tuesday afternoon. The ridge breaks down by mid week and we transition to northwest flow aloft. A weak and moisture starved cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night, possibly sparking a few thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Surface high pressure will then build in behind this front for Thursday bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region. The forecast for Friday into the Labor Day weekend is low confidence. Longer range forecast models want to develop a tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico and bring it northeast into the Southeast U.S. as a shortwave dives in from the northwest. The GFS and GEM bring some moisture into our southeast counties while the ECMWF keeps everything on the other side of the Appalachian Mountains. The model blend did offer some PoPs as early as Friday in our southeast but trimmed this back some with the drier airmass over our region and the low confidence outcome with the potential tropical system. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the end of the period. FEW to SCT clouds will move across the area today and tonight. Light and variable winds will again prevail. Some valley fog is expected to form late tonight, but it is unlikely that any of the TAF sites will be affected. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will form and move across eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening, but should remain scattered enough to not directly affect any of the TAF sites. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.