Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 281815 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 DID AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR...SKY COVER... AND T/TD OBS...AS WELL AS THE TRENDS. ALSO...ADDED SPRINKLES TO THE WX GRIDS IN THE FAR EAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. ATTACHED TO THIS THIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST...RUNNING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT SET UP THE CONDITIONS THAT WERE SO FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND VERY LARGE HAIL YESTERDAY. NOW DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS BUILDING INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE ON NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXPECT RATHER CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE LOW POPS AND HIGH SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES HAS DEVELOPED A MASS OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW RACING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN KY. THIS MOVEMENT IS FASTER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THESES CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL REPORTS THUS FAR IN THE MORNING...PRECIP TIMING STILL SEEMS TO BE IN RATHER GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. ALSO...AFTER SOME HEAVY SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT...SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE SINCE DEVELOPED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THIS UPDATE HOWEVER DUE TO THE FACT THAT LATEST TRENDS SHOW IT BURNING OFF QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS TO MAKE SURE THAT ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SE OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES...DRIER NORTHERLY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...THIS NORTHERLY AIR WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW AND MID 70S. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BOTH OF WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO NE AND ERLY SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THE EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND WHETHER THEY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED OR SCT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN SHOWER EVENT. AND GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...EXPECT THE IMPACTS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION. BY TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN COASTLINE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS...COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DROP LOWS INTO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BRIEFLY COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...MODELS ARE POINTING AT YET ANOTHER BATCH OF ISL TO SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY ON TUESDAY AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN...QPF VALUES ARE VERY LIGHT AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT BEST...SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS WITH THESE SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THURSDAY...REMAINING IN THE MID 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A PERSISTENT TROUGH REIGNS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SOME TEMPORARY DAMPENING OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH THE THREAT OF DIURNALLY INFLUENCED CONVECTION RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY FROM THE 70S MID-WEEK...TO THE LOWER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE NEARBY UPPER LOW AND COOL MID LAYERS ARE CAUSING PLENTY OF STRATO CU THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...THE CIGS ARE VARYING BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4K FEET AGL. A FEW POCKETS OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA... BUT THESE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR AVIATION CONCERNS. LATER TONIGHT THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SINK DOWN A BIT MORE...TO THE 2 OR 2.5K FOOT LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM AT MOST SITES...THOUGH DID ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR BR AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE UP AND SCATTER OUT TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL THE SITES. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...GREIF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.