Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211810 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 210 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 Upslope flow is responsible for the regeneration of some shower activity across the area this afternoon. High resolution models picked up on this possibility earlier and had adjusted the forecast accordingly. Consequently only minor tweaks were needed to the grids for the early afternoon update. Did raise afternoon highs a degree based on hourly trends, but changes were not significant enough to update the zones. UPDATE Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 No major changes made to the forecast package this morning. Did make some adjustments to pops based on the latest radar trends and tweaked grids to bring them in line with hourly obs. We are seeing a little upslope flow so expect only a gradual trend downward in shower activity through the remainder of the day, though overall coverage will continue to diminish. Will also update the zones to remove morning wording. UPDATE Issued at 839 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 Freshened up the hourly pops, temperatures, and dew points according to the latest radar and observational trends. Showers have filled back in as the trough axis draws closer to our area. Temperatures have dropped off in the low to mid 50s everywhere, with 40s being felt in the higher terrain. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 A surface cold front is currently moving through eastern Kentucky, with widespread precipitation gradually exiting to the east. Temperatures are running from the mid 50s behind the boundary, with some lower to mid 60s still hanging on in the far east ahead of the front. Aloft, an upper level trough axis is shifting across western KY/TN, with a well-defined dry slot as seen on water vapor, moving into central Kentucky. The models are in good agreement through Saturday, with the trough axis to gradually move east across the rest of the Commonwealth today. A temporary lull behind the main batch of precipitation will give way to a resurgence of scattered to numerous shower activity as the trough moves through our area today. Many high temperatures will likely be established early this morning, as cool northwest winds and plenty of low level cloud cover will keep readings nearly steady in the low to mid 50s through the day, some 30 degrees cooler than the highs from yesterday for many places. The showers will come to an end from west to east this afternoon into early this evening. Clouds will likely be slow to dissipate tonight, with locations west of I-75 seeing the best chance of any partial clearing by dawn Saturday morning. Lows will be in the lower 40s for most spots, with the exception of the higher terrain in the southeast, where 30s will be more commonplace. A few sites out west may also be candidates for some 30s if enough clearing can take place late. Saturday will feature a partly cloudy day, with highs in the mid to upper 50s, as high pressure builds in from the west and southwest, and heights recover aloft. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 Models are in good agreement from Sunday night through much of the upcoming week. High pressure will be positioned just to our south at the start of the period, leading to the coldest night of the fall Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lows should settle into the mid 30s in the colder sheltered valleys with readings in the lower 40s on the ridgetops. This high pressure will be pushed south as a dry cold front slips south Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of the front on Sunday, temperatures should have a nice bump with a nice surge of higher mid level heights. The cold front won`t have a significant impact on the weather, expect to bring in a very dry airmass for Monday and Tuesday. Fortunately, with high pressure settling in across the region, winds should stay fairly light both days, so no significant fire weather concerns. Tuesday morning could turn quite chilly with the very dry airmass and we could be looking at our first good frost for the area, but ECMWF remains a bit higher on dewpoints, which could favor more fog formation. Regardless, could be some spotty frost in places. Doesn`t appear widespread enough to warrant a mention in the HWO at the moment. Temperatures will again rebound into the middle of the upcoming week as high pressure slides east and we start to see return flow. A shortwave trough will cross the great lakes late Wednesday into Thursday and will help to drag a cold front across Kentucky again. This time around, moisture looks more limited, but there will be a small chance for some showers as the front pushes through on Thursday. 00z GFS actually weakened the system a bit, but ECMWF maintains some light QPF areawide. Details are a bit more fuzzy behind the Thursday system as models support a very weak push of colder air, so we may stay mild into the end of the week, but the 00z ECMWF does bring a secondary cold front south Thursday night and could bring some cooler temperatures heading into next weekend. Latest GFS does not support that solution, so still some spread with respect to those details. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 In general IFR level CIGS have lifted into MVFR territory. Expect KSYM, KSME, and KLOZ to become VFR by late this afternoon or very early in the evening. Terminals further east, KJKL and KSJS will take a few hours longer. However, low VFR stratocu decks are expected to linger through the overnight with partial clearing not taking place until Saturday morning into mid-afternoon. Also seeing some regeneration of some shower activity in upslope flow as wrap around moisture combines with flow off of the Great Lakes. While shower activity will be confined to mainly the higher terrain along the Kentucky/Virgina state line, did leave a mentioned of VCSH for several more hours in most of the TAFs. Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish through the late afternoon, becoming light around 6 kts tonight. Then northwest gradient winds will increase again Saturday to around 10kts.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...RAY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.