Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290614 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 214 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AROUND DAWN...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARING OUT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOLD HELP REGENERATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ORIGINALLY EXPECTED LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR COOLER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WITH APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS...BLENDING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS...MAINLY TO BLEND EVENING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY NOSED IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A PLEASANT AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVERHEAD. ALOFT...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS CURRENTLY RULING ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST...AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. CUMULUS WILL BE ON THE DEMISE TOWARDS DUSK...WITH HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY ON OUR DOORSTEP FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FOSTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR US...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS...TO AROUND 60 ON THE RIDGES. A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE...CLOSEST TO THE FORCING...AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST SOUTH OF I-64. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE BETTER AVAILABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN ALIGN ON MONDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE UPGRADE FROM SPC ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS AND WE LOSE HEATING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE BALMY...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. IN THIS PATTERN...AN MCS LIKE TREND STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE AND THE GFS AND EURO ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE FRONT OR JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT. WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SEEM TO BE MORE OF AN MCS TYPE NATURE WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SEEMS TO BE WELL IN HAND AND CONSISTENT WITH THE NEWEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO. WHILE IT DOES SEEM THAT DIURNAL TRENDS WILL HAVE QUITE AN IMPACT ON HOW THE COMPLEXES WILL PLAY OUT IN THE EXTENDED AND TIMING COMPOUNDS THIS...WILL BE SURE TO INCREASE POPS EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS PATTERN AS IT KEEPS POPS EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THIS MAY BE A BIT EXCESSIVE...TIMING AS MENTIONED...WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID ADJUST THE POPS TO HAVE A DIURNAL TREND BUT KEEPING THE MAX POPS DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE BLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND DAWN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRING TEMPORARY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...HAL/RAY

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