Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 281530 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1130 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 A few showers are currently popping up near the I-64 corridor, associated with some passing outflow. Some weaker radar echoes are showing up a bit further southwest, but probably not producing more than just a few sprinkles. Extensive cloud cover looks to remain in place through the rest of the day. This will limit the heating more and have lowered highs a bit. The latest higher resolution guidance continues to show some scattered convection popping up this afternoon; however, it will not be nearly as robust as what we experienced yesterday afternoon and evening. Will keep the mention of locally heavy rainfall and some strong wind gusts in the HWO for now. UPDATE Issued at 658 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 Shower activity remains off to our south this morning with subsidence over the area providing a nice break to the recent rains. This break may carry well into the daylight hours today as the airmass struggles to recover from yesterday. Latest HRRR does not seem to have a handle on the radar trends, but based on those trends, we should stay rain free well into the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 254 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 Deep convection has shifted off to our south with much more limited instability across eastern Kentucky. A few showers have managed to pop up over Pike county in the last few hours, but these should be short lived as subsidence takes over and spread in on the north side of the convection to the south. CAMs support very little convective activity through the upcoming day. In fact, there is very little forcing or triggers to be had. A vort max sliding northeast across the area could spark some convection, but instability is limited, so the better threat may be to our north or northeast. In the wake of the vort max, not much expected through the afternoon and early evening hours. A cold front advancing across the Ohio river valley this evening and overnight will bring the best shot at a few showers or storms, but instability never fully recovers and models have very limited activity over eastern Kentucky with most of the instability and moisture being taken up by the storms to our south near the Gulf coast. With this said, conditions for flash flooding look very weak today/tonight and thus, we have decided to cancel the flash flood watch. The storm prediction center has also downgraded the area to a marginal mainly due to the lack of airmass recovery today. If instability can build enough, we could still see a few severe storms, but overall, the risk appears to be diminished today. This is good news for those areas recovering from yesterdays heavy rain and storms. As the front shifts south early Monday morning, so will the rain chances, leaving behind a dry Monday. We should also see slightly less humid conditions as well. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 The period will begin with an upper level ridge centered north of the Bahamas and another ridge extending north from Mexico into the Western Conus while a trough should be approaching the Pacific Coast at that point. In between, a closed low is anticipated over the Northern Great Lakes region with an associated trough south into the Lower OH Valley and parts of the MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure is expected to be centered over the Southern Appalachians to begin the period while an area of low pressure is expected to be across northern Ontario. A trailing cold front should moving across the Great Lakes and approaching the Lower OH Valley to begin the period. The upper level low should meander into the Hudson and James Bay regions through midweek. Model agreement is best through Wednesday before timing and strength differences appear with the trough moving into the West Coast and the ridging downstream moving from the Intermountain west into the High Plains. The general consensus is for a disturbance rotating south from Northern Canada and merging with the Hudson/James Bay upper low with the system dropping south toward the northern Great Lakes and then into Eastern Canada from Wednesday night through the end of the period. Also a southern stream system could reach the MS Valley region by the end of the period, but uncertainty in interaction between this system and the upper low moving through the Lakes and southern Canada leads to below average confidence in timing and details later in the period. Under the influence of the trough, the pattern will be at least somewhat unsettled with some showers possible with the cold front and associated mid level wave on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Another mid level shortwave on Wednesday could lead to generally diurnally driven convection on Wednesday and moisture might be sufficient for some thunder too. However, the near term system and front will have scoured out much of the deeper moisture from the Ohio Valley. More substantial moisture and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s may return north and northeast by late Thursday night and Friday and continuing into next weekend for better chances for at least diurnally driven convection and more substantial chances for thunder. Temperatures should average near normal through the period for high temperatures while low temperatures should tend to climb to above normal levels late in the period with more in the way of cloud cover and higher dewpoints expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 Outside of a brief period of IFR conditions in a few spots early this morning, mainly VFR conditions will be seen today. A cold front will swing south across the area tonight bringing a brief shower or storm this evening. Behind this front, we may see some stratus build into the area tonight with IFR conditions possible by daybreak tomorrow morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.