Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210614 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 214 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS KEEPING CONVECTION OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THE AREA THROUGH DAWN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH DAWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS INTO LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. THE SEVERE LINE IS PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...THUS DISCUSSIONS ARE UNDER WAY TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS OUR AREA BY TOP OF THE HOUR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 452 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 A CHALLENGING FORECAST. TAIL END OF FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY EVIDENT ACROSS THE MID WEST IS SHIFTING EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE THIS BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION. THEREAFTER IT SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS. ATTM IT APPEARS AT LEAST PART OF OUR AREA WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY RIDING OVER AND DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP AND HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH UP WITH REALITY. GFS HAS PERFORMED DECENTLY THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS THOUGH AND LEANED TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX WEAKENED AS EXPECTED. BUT CONVECTION HAS REFIRED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD POOL IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. RAMPED POPS UP FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION ENTERING FROM THE WEST AND ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. CONSEQUENTLY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST UNTIL 11 PM. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...LEFT AT LEAST A CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW...SO LEFT HIGHEST POPS IN OUR EAST...LOWER TO OUR WEST. ALSO THURSDAYS TEMP GRADIENT SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO PRECIP COOLED AIR AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS IN THE EAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 452 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS... AS MODELS INDICATE THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST NOW WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINING TO OUR WEST AS WELL. SO... TEMPERATURES WERE REDUCED A BIT...BUT IT IS STILL GOING TO BE WARM AND VERY MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS JUICY AIR MASS ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE) WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT PUTTING US IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN ADDITION TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL BASED ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH SO POPS WILL DECREASE A BIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 IFR OR WORSE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT SAW MORE SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE FOG AT BAY FOR SOME OF THE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS LIKELY LIGHTEN EVEN MORE...EXPECT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS TO BUILD IN MORE EXTENSIVELY. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY THREATEN ONCE AGAIN FROM 15Z ONWARD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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