Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211929 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY...STRETCHED NEAR A LINE FROM KFGX TO KBWG. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LIMITED...WITH ONLY A LITTLE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING SHOWING UP IN TENNESSEE IN THE PAST HOUR. A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE MARKS THE CUSP OF THE MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ADVECTING IN...WITH LOTS OF DEW POINTS IN THE 40S NOTED UPSTREAM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED CHANCE POPS AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW 40S UP NORTH AS WELL AS ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL RISE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE COOL DAYTIME READINGS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE REGION...WITH WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PULLING DRY AND COLDER AIR IN FROM CANADA. AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF THE AGGRESSIVE MAV GUIDANCE...ENDING UP CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS. THIS WILL PUT THEM RIGHT AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN BLOCKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH THE LOSS OF STRONGEST NRLY WIND FLOW AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...IF THE FLOW IS DEEP ENOUGH...SOME MOISTURE MAY STILL MAKE IT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN LEADING TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. MORE SHALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW WOULD LIMIT THIS PRECIPITATION THREAT AS DOWNSLOPING WOULD DOMINATE. THUS...WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL VEER TO THE W AND WNW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING. ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SOME IFR STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. IF THIS DOES FORM...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS/JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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