Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190056 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 756 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 750 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 An upper level is moving across the OH and TN Valley Regions. This system has brought generally light rain and showers to the area with some of these rotating across the area at this time. Some steadier light rain has fallen across Fleming County and areas closer to the OH River. Rainfall has been light, generally a tenth of an inch or less. Scattered light showers will continue through the evening and into the overnight as the upper system moves across the area and the band to the north of the area or what is left of it drops into the region. Some stratus build down is possible as the lower levels saturate and some patchy fog may develop late this evening and into the overnight hours especially on the ridges. Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations and trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 255 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Current conditions across the area feature an area of rainfall shifting northeast from the southwest as a surface low pressure area develops over central TN shifting a northeast to east direction. North of the low, a banded area of rainfall has developed over northern Kentucky and will be moving eastward setting up over locations in eastern Kentucky just north of the Mountain Parkway. This setup should bring an end to significant rainfall in the south and southeast as the bulk of the rainfall will fall in the vicinity of the developed band across northern Kentucky. As this feature exits to the east tonight some lingering light rainfall will provide another couple hundredths before exiting by 06Z. Despite the saturated grounds, lingering low level cloud cover will keep from any fog development late tonight. This feature having no real cold air push, the bulk of the moisture and low level cloud cover will experience some difficulty getting scoured out of the eastern Kentucky terrain and it being late February with still a some low sun angle wont help out either. So, will see this cloud cover stick around till late morning before breaking up. Still though, with a more warmer flow in place, temps will rebound to near or above 60 degrees tomorrow. By Sunday night, with ridging becoming well entrenched over the area, relatively mostly clear skies will be in place. With enough saturation to the ground today and tonight, Sunday night, with good subsidence in place and light winds will set the stage for some fog development. If we clear out any more for tomorrow night, the fog will be more dense in places as well as a steeper ridge to valley temperature gradient for that matter. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 The models are in decent agreement aloft through the mid part of the extended forecast. They all depict a sharp ridge passing through the area on Monday ahead of a full latitude trough extending from the Northern Plains south to Central Mexico. This system then splits Monday night with the northern stream part flowing into the Great Lakes while the southern portion closes off over the western Gulf of Mexico by midday Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF are now closer with this evolution, though the EC is still stronger - while the Canadian is far off in the weakness of its trough in the southern region. The dissipation of the northern trough will send a band of weakening energy through Kentucky later Tuesday. Following this, flat ridging returns to the region north of the Gulf low and south of faster northern stream flow. Discounting the Canadian, the models are not too far off over Kentucky through the rest of the work week as they maintain the gentle ridge overhead for the Bluegrass State while weak energy packets move through. Next up a low will grind through the Upper Midwest and strengthen pumping the ridge over our area on Friday before southwest flow kicks in and heights drop by that evening. The core of the energy will pass by to the north later that night - a tad quicker in the GFS than the ECMWF. Given the agreement early and some separation later in the period will favor a blended solution for the extended grids. Sensible weather will feature very warm temperatures for the area through Friday before a step back into the 40s occurs Saturday post frontal. Rain chances arrive on Tuesday afternoon and night as a dying cold front passes through the region. After a lull the PoPs will pick up again on Thursday into Friday with a developing area of low pressure over the Central Plains and a frontal structure setting up north of the state. This will keep Kentucky in the warm sector with convection anticipated, though thunder chances are still too uncertain to place in the forecast - even as the system`s cold front crosses later Friday. Some upslope flow and wrap around moisture may trigger a few snow showers that night into Saturday morning but amounts look to be in the trace category - with high pressure building in on Saturday and drying us back out. Again made some small to moderate adjustments, early on and then late in the week, to the temperatures at night for some ridge to valley distinctions. As for PoPs, basically tightened them up a bit with the weak cold front - and behind it - passing through Tuesday night. &&40 .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 739 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 MVFR has developed across the southwest part of the area and as bands of showers rotate east and northeast across the area as an upper level system approaches. The low levels are becoming saturated and further deterioration to MVFR is expected in all locations through 5Z. At least patchy IFR should begin to develop during that time with stratus build down, first south and east of the TAF sites and then affect the far north and many of the ridgetops by 9Z as the build down becomes more widespread. MVFR vis is also possible in showers and in patchy light fog as the stratus builds down. These cigs and or vis should persist through about 15Z, before a gradual improvement to VFR by the end of the period. Winds should remain light through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.