Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 070551 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1251 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1251 AM EST WED DEC 7 2016 Have freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points to account for the latest trends in observations. This resulted in slowing the cooling through dawn; however, forecast lows in the low to mid 30s still look within reach. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 1100 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Rain has exited eastern Kentucky as drier air filters in behind a cold front. Stratus will slowly erode through the night as west/northwest winds diminish to near and eventually below 5 mph. UPDATE Issued at 653 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Light rain continues to push east across far eastern Kentucky ahead of an impending cold front. West/northwest wind gusts of 10-20 mph will continue this evening before diminishing as high pressure inches closer. Should see upslope induced rain come to an end by midnight as drier air advects in.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Cool damp weather to continue throughout the afternoon and evening hours today, although the ongoing rain is tapering off quite a bit faster than previously forecast. The HRRR model has the last of the rain out of eastern Kentucky by between 0 and 1Z this evening. Based on the latest radar trends, and the HRRR data, have decided to speed up precipitation evolution across eastern Kentucky by several hours, with the last isolated showers or patches of drizzle moving out of the area between 3 and 4Z. The rain may actually end even faster than this, but did not feel comfortable going completely dry as quickly as the HRRR is currently suggesting. The latest model data has eastern Kentucky experiencing a dry period of weather on Wednesday as the current upper trough continues to move off well to our east. There could be a brief period of light rain and snow showers Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, as a second upper level low moves by just to our south. At this time precipitation probabilities late Wednesday into Thursday look be quite low, 15 to 24 percent on average, so only isolated rain/snow showers are expected at this time. With such a small chance of precipitation expected, decided not to include any snowfall accumulations at this time. Temperatures should be running slightly below normal tomorrow and tomorrow night, with daytime highs on Wednesday in the 40s and overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Tonights lows should be at or slightly above normal due to the influence of the expected widespread cloud cover. Tonights lows should be in the low to mid 30s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 While not official by the calendar, winter will arrive on Thursday as a very cold airmass filters into the region. Models continue to back away from the precipitation potential on Thursday as a weak wave forms on the polar front to our southeast, but too far away to produce much precipitation this far west. Will maintain a 20 PoP for our southeast counties, but that`s it. Temperatures will likely not rise much on Thursday, remaining in the mid 30s for most locations. Cold advection engages Thursday night with a better upslope component to the winds developing and continuing into the day on Friday. Models show sufficient moisture in the -8c to -12c layer for snow flurries to develop, and I would not be too surprised if we don`t eventually need to add some isolated snow showers into the forecast for our higher terrain. Whatever the case, Friday will be our coldest day since last February with highs remaining below freezing for most locations. Low temperatures Friday night are still a little tough to figure out as despite the fact high pressure moves overhead, some mid and high level cloudiness may disrupt prime radiational cooling conditions. Our weather pattern transitions quickly to southwest flow aloft over the weekend as a shortwave traverses the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains states. As a result, temperatures will moderate out of the freezer to the mid 30s Saturday and mid to upper 40s by Sunday. The shortwave will continue across the Great Lakes and into New England into early next week forcing a surface cold front through the region. Timing differences remain, but are not as extreme as yesterday, and models appear to be settling on a Sunday night frontal passage. Was able to nix PoPs for Saturday night, and ramp them up Sunday into Sunday night. Will continue to mention a rain/snow mix at onset Sunday morning over our northern counties, but that is looking like a minimal concern with the bulk of the precipitation not entering the area until Sunday afternoon when it will fall as rain. This system moves through quickly on Monday with decreasing PoPs and a brief cool down which may allow some of the precip to end as snow or a rain/snow mix into Monday night. High pressure is then progged to build in on Tuesday with seasonable conditions. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1251 AM EST WED DEC 7 2016 MVFR ceilings look to hang on through the mid to late morning hours, before scattering out. Some mid-level cloud cover will then be on the increase towards the end of the forecast. Northwest winds will average around 5 kts or less through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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