Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020126 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 926 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 ONCE AGAIN...SIMPLY BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HAVE BLENDED LATE DAY OBS INTO THE EVENING FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA BORDER BUT THESE ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SKIPS ACROSS NORTHERN KY. MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE KY/VA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH NIGHTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND ALONG RIVER BEDS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM TIME TO TIME. DECIDED TO REDUCE THE POPS GIVEN BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME SINCE THAT HAS BEEN OVERDOING IT RECENTLY. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AFTER INITIAL VFR...VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT AND GROW IN DEPTH AND BREADTH...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING EVEN SOME RIDGE LOCATIONS. IT WILL BRING LOCALIZED VLIFR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING VFR TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...HAL

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