Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 252250 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 650 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 UPDATED TO BLEND LATE DAY OBS INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO ADJUSTED TIMING/RATE OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO MIN OR MAX TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WINDS HAVE OBTAINED A MORE SW HEADING WITH DECENT MIXING RESULTING IN GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25KTS. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...CONNECTED TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING OVER NORTHERN TX. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND THIS SAME TIME. IT WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE CWA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN KY AFTER 6Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER EXPECTED INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...A STRONG PULL OF COLDER NW AIR WILL STREAM IN...QUICKLY DROPPING NEAR SURFACE TEMPS AND CREATING A STRONG LLVL INVERSION. THIS WILL CREATE A LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND LIKELY PREVENT ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO COOL THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER AS TEMPS DROPPED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH COMPLETE LOSS OF INSTABILITY BY 21Z. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SO QUICKLY...LOW TO MID 30S CAN BE EXPECTED BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO POTENTIALLY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW. THIS IDEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES...AND SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO CAUSE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STICKING TO SURFACES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH 85H TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -10 TO -14 C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LINGERING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY...AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. SHIFTS EAST AND THE MEAN FLOW DEAMPLIFIES OVER OUR REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH STRONG MIXING IN PLACE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DUSK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. AT THIS POINT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 12Z THU AS WELL...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS UNTIL THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE -SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS MATERIALIZING AND WHERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW

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