Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220605 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 205 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE THE PRE FIRST PERIOD THAT MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH NO FURTHER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY...STRETCHED NEAR A LINE FROM KFGX TO KBWG. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LIMITED...WITH ONLY A LITTLE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING SHOWING UP IN TENNESSEE IN THE PAST HOUR. A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE MARKS THE CUSP OF THE MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ADVECTING IN...WITH LOTS OF DEW POINTS IN THE 40S NOTED UPSTREAM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED CHANCE POPS AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW 40S UP NORTH AS WELL AS ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL RISE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE COOL DAYTIME READINGS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE REGION...WITH WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PULLING DRY AND COLDER AIR IN FROM CANADA. AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF THE AGGRESSIVE MAV GUIDANCE...ENDING UP CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS. THIS WILL PUT THEM RIGHT AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN BLOCKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH THE LOSS OF STRONGEST NRLY WIND FLOW AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...IF THE FLOW IS DEEP ENOUGH...SOME MOISTURE MAY STILL MAKE IT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN LEADING TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. MORE SHALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW WOULD LIMIT THIS PRECIPITATION THREAT AS DOWNSLOPING WOULD DOMINATE. THUS...WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY AFTER A DEPARTING COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION HAS CAUSED A BROAD DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IMAGERY...THESE CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH SSE-WARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO EASTERN KY WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD DECK HEIGHTS BACK TO MVFR AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPEST VALLEYS AND IN SOME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE TAF SITES. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD...WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR AND THINNING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS/JMW AVIATION...JMW

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