Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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100 FXUS63 KJKL 290319 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1119 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1105 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 The focus for shower and thunderstorm activity continues to be near the Ohio River near a warm front. Steering flow should keep the activity generally in this corridor. A few showers or a stray thunderstorm is possible in the far north overnight, but most locations should remain dry. Valley minimum temperatures were lowered a bit to account for nocturnal inversion that has set up in the deeper valleys. UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 The mid level cap has generally held across southeast KY this evening. With mid level height rises, loss of daytime heating, and lower dewpoints in far southeast KY from deeper mixing and downslope flow off of the Cumberland Mountains and threat of strong to severe thunderstorms across East KY is diminishing. Recent radar, satellite and short term convective allowing models indicate that the primary risk for severe weather for the remainder of the evening and into the overnight will probably be near the OH River and north near the current position of the warm front. Scattered showers and an isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm still cannot be ruled out this evening generally along or north of I 64. Across the remainder of the region, the overnight should be mainly dry.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 Quite a bit of uncertainty still exists in the model data regarding convective initiation and evolution this afternoon through late this evening across eastern Kentucky. The best guess for now is that storms that will be forming to our west and southwest will eventually move into our northwestern counties late this afternoon, and will move across the area generally north of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor through early tomorrow morning. Any storm that does make into the area will have the potential of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado. A severe weather watch may be necessary to begin the evening shift. The first showers and storms should move into our northwestern counties around 22Z, and will move east across the northern half of the forecast area overnight. Temperatures should continue to run well above normal, with nightly lows only bottoming out in the 60s tonight and tomorrow night, and highs maxing out in the upper 80s and lower 90s on Saturday. Winds should be primarily out of the south at 7 to 12 mph through the period. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 The models are still in good agreement aloft for the bulk of the extended period. They all depict a strong ridge through the southeast portion of the nation with broad southwest flow ahead of a deep closed low moving into the Texas Panhandle early Sunday. This low will further deepen and lift into the mid Mississippi Valley by Monday morning with the GFS a bit quicker and more northerly than the ECMWF. Both are quite deep, though, with height falls spreading through Kentucky. This bowling ball of a low then barrels into the western Great Lakes by Tuesday morning similar, but still with the GFS leading the ECMWF. The Canadian solution is similar to the others lending confidence to the consensus solution at least through mid week. As this low transitions past to the north the core of its energy will swing through eastern Kentucky Monday morning with another significant node passing early Tuesday. The pattern will then slowly deamplify through Wednesday with more zonal type of flow through the region before the next trough starts to take shape over the southern High Plains. This trough quickly sinks to the south and reaches the Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon before wrapping up more and closing off over the Deep South by 12z Friday - quickest and furthest east in the ECMWF than the others. This low will then slowly traverse the Deep South off to the east - maintaining the low heights and cyclonic mid level flow over eastern Kentucky. Given the decent agreement for the extended have greater than normal confidence in the extended forecast from the blend. Sensible weather will feature a warm and humid end to the weekend ahead of a drying out cold front. After highs in the upper 80s most places on Sunday afternoon the front will move through by Monday morning with a threat for storms as well as ushering in a cooler and drier air mass. This air quickly gets replaced by another surge of moisture from the south starting on Wednesday as a warm front stalls nearby with a concern for storms and heavy rains that afternoon through Thursday. The developing sfc low to our south for the latter part of the week will keep the threat of showers and a stray storm in the forecast through Thursday followed by mainly just showers and seasonably cool temperatures - a far cry from those that we will see this weekend. Raised temps a tad on Sunday with more sunshine expected and being rain free. Did make some minor adjustments to temperatures each night - particularly for ridge to valley differences early Sunday night and again Tuesday night. Also, fine tuned the PoPs to tighten them up with the fropa on Monday morning and heading into the Wednesday system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 Shower and thunderstorm activity during the first 12 to 15 hours of the period should mainly be confined to locations near a warm front located near the OH River. KSYM could experience a few showers or a tsra and VCTS has been used there for the first several hours of the period. If KSYM were to experience a direct hit from a thunderstorm a period of IFR VIS and or CIGS will be possible along wind wind gusts up to 30KT. COnfidence in this however is too low to include attm. Otherwise, upper level ridging should keep convection at bay with VFR expected. Winds through the period should average out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JP

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