Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 272000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A LINE OF THUNDERTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF IT HOLD TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 5 PM. IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM LIMITING ACTIVITY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SHOWER AND STORM COULD AGAIN POP UP. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...HAL

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