Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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122 FXUS63 KJKL 210250 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1050 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 Just sent out a quick forecast update to reduce the amount of time we expect thunder tonight. Based on trends seen in the latest radar imagery and lightning data, one or two more hours of thunder seems reasonable at this point. The grids were updated accordingly with only a slight chance of thunder in our eastern counties through 5Z. After that it appears that general rain showers will be the rule. The rest of the forecast was in good shape with no other significant changes needed. An updated zone forecast text product has already been issued. The Hazardous Weather Outlook has also been freshened up to reflect current thinking and to remove afternoon wording. UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 A challenging forecast on tap for this evening and tonight, due to the erratic nature of the ongoing convection. Showers and storms across eastern Kentucky have varied from isolated to numerous in nature since this afternoon. At this time a consolidated line of showers and storms is moving into our western tiers of counties. The individual cells are moving from southwest to northeast, while the line overall is moving slowly eastward. The storms are quickly losing their punch now that the sun is down. Trend is expected to continue for the next several hours. The activity has begun to fill in a bit over the past hour or so, so it does appear that most locations across eastern Kentucky will receive measurable rainfall this evening. Once the thunder dies out, quite a few rain showers will be left over. These will continue to move across the area tonight through late Friday morning. The forecast in general is on track, so no major changes are planned at this time. The only change that was made was to ingest the latest obs into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends. Will likely issue an update near the end of the shift to remove evening wording from the zone forecast text produce, and to remove mention of thunder if necessary. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 352 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 Shower activity continues to develop across the area this afternoon with a few thunderstorms thrown in for good measure. Have been seeing some gusty winds with the stronger and more organized thunderstorms, generally up to 25 mph but would expect a few places are seeing gusts to around 30 mph. Have also received a couple reports of small hail, anywhere from pea to nickel in size. Sfc low pressure is getting more organized now and is currently moving through the Commonwealth. A cold front will be pulled through the area this evening as the low continues to track off to the northeast tonight. We still expect around three quarters of an inch of total rainfall across much of the area on average from this afternoon through Friday morning. Showers will taper off pretty quickly Friday afternoon. High pressure will begin to nose its way into the region by late Friday, allowing a much cooler air mass to settle down over the region by late Friday night. At this time feel there will be too much cloud cover for the threat of frost Friday night into Saturday morning, and gradient winds appear to be a bit to high as well. Consequently will leave any mention of frost out of the short term for now. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 352 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 Chilly, unseasonable air will be in place in the wake of an upper trough passage on Saturday, with afternoon highs in the middle and upper 50s. An upper ridge will then begin building into the central plains Sunday before slowly making its way into the Ohio Valley by mid-week. This will keep eastern Kentucky in northwest flow through Tuesday, while remaining on the back edge of a broad upper trough. The upper level flow pattern is then expected to moderate and become more zonal through the remainder of the period. At the surface, Saturday will serve as the coolest day we have had since May, with afternoon highs mainly in the mid 50s. Skies are expected to clear through the day on Saturday, setting the stage for a chilly night. Valley temps are expected to drop into the 30s by Sunday morning. Heights will rebound on Sunday as a surface ridge builds into the lower Mississippi Valley. A weak cold front looks to move through early on Monday, with little consequence other than a slight increase in clouds and a wind shift. Dry weather will hold on through Wednesday, before another cold front takes aim at the area Thursday. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with lows generally in the 40s (mid and upper 30s in the valleys at times) and highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 A strong cold front continues to approach our area from the west. Thunderstorms will be possible at any of our terminals until frontal passage occurs, although the chances for thunder are steadily decreasing now that the sun is down. In general expect CIGs to drop into IFR/LIFR levels behind the front. VSBYs will generally drop into MVFR categories with showers, possibly into IFR with post frontal showers and pre-frontal thunderstorms. Winds will veer from the southwest at 5 to 10 kts to the northwest behind the front at around 10 kts. Gusty winds to around 25 kts will be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms and briefly with and just behind the cold front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.