Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260945 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT 8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST. THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY... THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY... BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS. THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...DJ

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