Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280730 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 RIDGING HAS SLID WELL OFF TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO ENTER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EXTRA CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY...PREVENTING US FROM REACHING MORE RECORDS. HOWEVER...THE JACKSON RECORD IS ONLY 78...SO WE COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING VALUE...BUT THE FORECAST WILL HAVE US FALLING SHORT BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...SO THUNDER CHANCES LOOK DECENT LATER TODAY. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 50 MPH. SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A 5 PERCENT AREA OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE SKY COVER...LEAVING A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO THE LOWER 60S...MAKING FOR A FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY FOR MID FALL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TAF SITES WILL ONLY FEATURE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ANY STRONGER STORM OR SHOWER COULD BRIEFLY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DMJ AVIATION...KAS

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