-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 280557
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1257 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTWEST IS KEEPING
TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TONIGHT QUITE WELL. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST
HOURLY TEMPS. WHILE SOME OF THE DEEPEST VALLEYS MAY CRACK THE
SINGLE DIGIT MARK...THINKING MOST PLACES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
LOWER TEENS ONLY. HAVE UPDATED AND SENT A FRESHENED SET OF GRIDS
TO THE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY HOLD STEADY OR AT LEAST
SLOW DOWN THE FALL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER. ALSO BASED ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING OUT OF
LEXINGTON...OPTED FOR SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A BIT MORE DRY AIR...BUT STILL CLOUD HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER