-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 062117
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
417 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE ONGOING EVENT. RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA AT MID
AFTERNOON. AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST TO OUR SE RIPPLES NE ALONG THE FRONT...THE FRONT WILL SLIP
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND COLD AIR WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR WILL INITIALLY UNDERCUT A WARM LAYER
ALOFT...WITH A RESULTING NARROW BAND OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
LIKELY PROGRESSING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NW. AS THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT ERODES...THE MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SNOW MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOW MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL DEPART BEFORE THE TRANSITION HAS A CHANCE TO MAKE
ITS WAY ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...THE SE
PART OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE RAIN JUST TAPER TO DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ALL AREAS LOOKING FOR
SOME FORM OF FREEZING PRECIP...THE ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO TAKE
IN ALL AREAS. LINGERING DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ON THE FRONT THAT IS SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW MOVES ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN THE COLD AIR AND PRODUCE MOSTLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE MAY ALSO BE A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET IN THERE AS WELL. THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL START IN THE
SOUTH AND THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL THEN BE ENDING IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE
TN BORDER IN THE MORNING AND THEN END OVER FLEMMING COUNTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...EXPECTING THE WORST OF THE ICE
ACCUMULATION TO BE AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS WILL CREATE
TREACHEROUS AND VERY DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. WHEN YOU COMBINE
THE ICE ALONG WITH THE ELEVATION AND DIRECTION CHANGES ALONG THE
KENTUCKY ROADS...IT BECOMES EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO DRIVE. A WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOST LIKELY BE
ISSUE BY TOMORROW MORNING. IT WAS FEARED THAT HAVING TWO DIFFERENT
ADVISORIES OUT WOULD CREATE CONFUSION...SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO
COVER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ONCE THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. SINCE THE
GROUND WILL ALREADY BE SATURATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE. ALSO THE THREAD FOR MUD SLIDES WILL
INCREASE. ALSO...SOME ROADWAYS MAY BECOME UNSTABLE AND DROP OFF MAY
SUDDENLY APPEAR. THE LAST OF THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVERS WILL PROBABLY NOT CREST UNTIL
MID WEEK.   HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...THING WILL STAY DRY AND COLD.
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES.
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&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

EXPECT IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STEADY RAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH DAWN. A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE SNOW WILL OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ058>060-
104-106.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-107>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JJ