Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 021014 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CIGS COULD COME DOWN TO MVFR IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FALLING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL TREND LOWER WITH MVFR THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-106>120.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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