-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 102146
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
546 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SPAWNED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS THEN POPPED
UP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND SLOWLY FOLLOWED THE OUTFLOW DIRECTION.
ONE SUCH AREA WAS ALONG THE ROCKCASTLE AND MADISON COUNTY
BORDERS...WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPAWNED A DECENT RAIN
SHOWER...AND THEN REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY WITH THE FAR EDGE OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR A COUPLE HOURS NOW. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS
SHOWER IS FINALLY SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND...WITH ITS OWN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS WELL. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS
TO MAKE SURE ISOLATED COVERAGE WAS INCLUDED FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS
SHOWER...AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ALOFT A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO
OUR AREA AND BRING WITH IT A DRIER...HOTTER AIR MASS FROM OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE
AREA EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
SUMMER TIME LEVELS BY TOMORROW UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE. BUT WITH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. DESPITE
IT BEING MID JULY IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO
THE GULF COAST...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR EASTERN KY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MCS
ACTIVITY LIKELY DETERMINING OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN AND SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

IN GENERAL WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID
GO WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS KSJS...AND A SMALLER WINDOW OF MVFR
VSBYS AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT FOG. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT TONIGHT AS THIS MORNING SINCE DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BEGINNING TONIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALSO GENERATING A BROKEN LINE OF ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. INCLUDED A VCSH REMARK FOR ALL OUR TERMINALS...BUT
FEEL THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXISTS FOR KJKL AND KSJS WHICH
ARE CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE DISTURBANCE AND WHERE A MID LEVEL
CAP IS OBVIOUSLY WEAKER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY