Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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146 FXUS63 KJKL 130358 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1058 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1058 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT HAVE BEEN BRIEFLY PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL IN SOME AREAS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AS WELL SOME REPORTS HAVE BROUGHT THE AWOS STATIONS AT SYM...SJS...AND PBX TO 2 MILES AT TIMES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. THE DURATION HAS BEEN PRETTY SHORT SUCH THAT MOST STATIONS ARE NOT REPORTING VIS BELOW A MILE. HAVE UPDATED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS A LITTLE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HWO FOR EVENING WORDING AND MENTIONED REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND WILL KEEP THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST INDICATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS PUTTING DOWN A QUICK COATING AND VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW A MILE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW A UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN. DUE TO THIS...WE MAY SEE AN ENHANCEMENT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SO HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND PUT A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHWEST AS WELL. THIS WILL...HOWEVER BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND MAY DECIDE TO ENHANCE THE HWO TO MENTION REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND EMPHASIS THE SHOWERS WITH SPS UPDATES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ON RADAR...THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE STATE...THOUGH SOME LIGHTER ONES ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRUSHING NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER CLEAR PATCHES HAVE FILLED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WHILE DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND BRISK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP ONTARIO LOW WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW THROUGH THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH KENTUCKY IN FAST FLOW AT MID LEVELS. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS PAST THE CWA TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLOWLY EASES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...LOCALLY...SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NOSE OF ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY DAWN SUNDAY. THIS NOSE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A STRONG LEAN TOWARD GUIDANCE FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY NIGHT OF COLD ADVECTION UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT DUE TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND ALSO A BRUSH BY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY. OUTSIDE OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...FLURRIES WILL BE FOUND. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OF A FLUFFY CONSISTENCY DUE TO THE COLD AIR WHICH SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM WITH ANY DUSTINGS BASICALLY BLOWING OFF THE COLD ROAD SURFACES. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS STAYING UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL MEAN WIND CHILLS DOWN TOWARD ZERO AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AT TIMES...OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC HIGH THAT FOLLOWS WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR ZERO IN THE VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARDS DAWN... PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...MAY HELP LIMIT THE ABSOLUTE EXTENT OF THE COLD EARLY SUNDAY. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO TERRAIN DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND THEN LOW SINGLE DIGITS AFTER THAT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 ...CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY INCREASING... A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH SNOWFALL RATES BEING SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...MODELS STILL IN NOT GREAT AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS/NAM SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF SNOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THUS...SITUATION REMAINS VERY MUDDLED...AND WILL STICK WITH A MENTION OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PER THE GFS AND NAM WOULD OBVIOUSLY GIVE US MORE SNOW FOR THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWS TO THE AREA. AGAIN...MODELS ARE FAR APART ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...LIKELY CAUSED BY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD BE WARMING UP AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 A STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN WITH ACCOMPANYING SNOW SHOWERS WILL KEEP AN MVFR TO IFR CIG THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VIS MAY OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE DRYING UP AND BRINGING AN END TO THE FLURRIES AND MVFR CLOUD COVER AS SKIES SCATTER OUT BY 18Z. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 AND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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