Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241120 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 720 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 TOUCHED UP THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE STEADILY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS IS STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. HERE IN THE EAST THE HIGH IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY MID LEVEL ONES MOVING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS FOSTERED ANOTHER DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURES SPLIT WITH READINGS CURRENTLY VARYING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE DEEPER SPOTS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S SETTING A BOTTOM FOR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST PLACES THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...PATCHY FOG HAS NOT SHOWED UP ON SATELLITE OR IN THE OBS/WEB CAMS YET...BUT WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION TODAY THAT STARTS TO EASE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF A BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS TROUGH IS OPENING UP AND AS IT DOES SO ENERGY WILL STREAM INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THESE WAVES WILL HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY AND BRUSH PAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...HRRR AND NAM12...MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG CLEARING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BREEZIER DAY ON TAP FOR THE CWA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SOUTH WINDS BLOW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL NOT DO MUCH TO LIMIT THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED LATE. FOR MEMORIAL DAY PROPER...WE WILL SEE A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT SEEMS TO BE CAPABLE OF BREAKING OUR STRING OF DRY WX THIS LONG WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES. NEGATIVE LIS AND MODERATE CAPE WILL HELP FUEL ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON... SUSTAINING AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE RIDGE WITH TIME DUE TO THE INHERENT INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A GOOD IDEA TO HAVE HOLIDAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WRAPPED UP...IF POSSIBLE...BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA OR ELSE RISK A RAIN/STORM OUT. FOLLOWED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME SMALL TO MODERATE TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM MINIMAL THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN RAMPED THEM UP FOR THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AND WET AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE GFS...NAM12...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL HAD DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO SOME DEGREE...WITH DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE THREE REGARDING TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEM PASSAGE AND THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF PRECIPITATION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A SERIES OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...WITH SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING EASTWARD AT THE SURFACE. THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS...EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS YET AGAIN. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAY TIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHED OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY...SO HAVE MORE MODERATE WINDS IN THE SME/LOZ/SYM/SJS TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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