Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181955 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 255 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 255 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Current conditions across the area feature an area of rainfall shifting northeast from the southwest as a surface low pressure area develops over central TN shifting a northeast to east direction. North of the low, a banded area of rainfall has developed over northern Kentucky and will be moving eastward setting up over locations in eastern Kentucky just north of the Mountain Parkway. This setup should bring an end to significant rainfall in the south and southeast as the bulk of the rainfall will fall in the vicinity of the developed band across northern Kentucky. As this feature exits to the east tonight some lingering light rainfall will provide another couple hundredths before exiting by 06Z. Despite the saturated grounds, lingering low level cloud cover will keep from any fog development late tonight. This feature having no real cold air push, the bulk of the moisture and low level cloud cover will experience some difficulty getting scoured out of the eastern Kentucky terrain and it being late February with still a some low sun angle wont help out either. So, will see this cloud cover stick around till late morning before breaking up. Still though, with a more warmer flow in place, temps will rebound to near or above 60 degrees tomorrow. By Sunday night, with ridging becoming well entrenched over the area, relatively mostly clear skies will be in place. With enough saturation to the ground today and tonight, Sunday night, with good subsidence in place and light winds will set the stage for some fog development. If we clear out any more for tomorrow night, the fog will be more dense in places as well as a steeper ridge to valley temperature gradient for that matter. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 346 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Springlike warmth will remain in place through the upcoming week. While the vast majority of the week looks to remain precipitation free, later Tuesday into early Wednesday looks to bring some meager rainfall amounts of perhaps one to two tenths of an inch. This will come by way of a shortwave trough extending from the Northwestern Territories to Mexico, following deep layer ridging and an invasion of balmy 850 mb temperatures, warming temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday. Further promoting this warmth will be a downslope wind component with east/southeast low level winds in place. Any lingering rainfall Wednesday morning will shift east during the afternoon, although would not be surprised to see drying ensue by early Wednesday morning given the northern stream of this wave dampening and shearing out as the southern stream portion digs into the Gulf of Mexico. Nonetheless, temperatures will remain warm, in the mid-upper 60s, despite a period of low clouds and without a notable change in airmass. An upper level disturbance will then develop across the Great Basin and Intermountain West Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, an upper low from the Canadian Prairies to Hudson Bay will usher energy into the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Not expecting any resulting rainfall for eastern Kentucky from this latter feature, but will have to monitor lead impulses ejecting downstream of the former system. Slim rain shower chances will thus result Thursday, before chances increase later Friday into the first half of next weekend. Currently looking like a cold front will finally kick through eastern Kentucky, bringing bonafide rain chances and cooler temperatures. However, upper low track across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes warrants skepticism as to greater rainfall and also potential thunder chances. Will therefore keep thunderstorm mention out of the forecast until prospects for more appreciable/robust large scale forcing for ascent become clearer.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Expect VFR conditions to persist through 00Z tonight for all the TAF sites but as the bulk of the moisture advects into the region over the next 6 hours, there may begin to be some lowering of cigs. Have put this into the TAFS mostly after 03Z tonight with some lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR. These cigs should persist at least into Sunday morning. Winds should remain light through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.