Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250523 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 123 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 123 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Just received a report of some dense fog already developing just south of Manchester. With that in mind, will beef up the fog forecast for the rest of the night going with patchy dense for valley locations. Again, fog should remain limited to the river valleys as drier air is slowly working into the area. Coldest readings as of 1 am this morning is 38 degrees at the Paintsville and Quicksand mesonet stations. UPDATE Issued at 1157 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 With dewpoints still holding around 40 for most locations, looks like fog will be favored over frost tonight, so have removed any mention of frost from the forecast and stuck with patchy fog in the river valleys. Also, tweaked the colder valleys down a few degrees as we are already seeing some temperatures touching 40 on the nose. Being we are already approaching cross over temperatures, we may have to look at the possibility of some localized dense fog near the river valleys. We`ll continue to monitor satellite for any indications of some denser fog developing. With weak dry air advection, any dense fog would be confined to the more deeper sheltered valleys, where the dry air may not make it into these locations as easily. UPDATE Issued at 1054 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 Continuing to monitor falling temperatures this evening under this clear and stable regime. Updated the near term forecast to include the latest observations for temps and dew points to make sure they are well on track with current conditions once more. Rest of forecast continues to be in good shape. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was sent out to update to "rest of tonight wording", although content really didn`t change from previous package. UPDATE Issued at 747 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 Forecast seems to be in good shape at this time. Temperatures are quickly dropping off with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast for temps and dew points matched up well with the ongoing conditions. Changes were not significant enough to warrant any new forecast products. Near term grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 19z sfc analysis shows a dry and mostly cloud free cold front settling through eastern parts of the state. This boundary is switching winds more completely to the north at 10 to 15 kts. Plenty of sunshine on either side of the front has led to near normal temperatures in the mid to upper 60s north to the mild lower 70s south while dewpoints were able to mix down into the upper 30s and lower 40s this afternoon. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term as they all depict a broad trough lifting northeast and out of the area. This will allow heights to rise for Kentucky through Wednesday morning while energy and the next developing trough over the plains stay well north of the area. Accordingly, will favor the blended model solution with a lean toward the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 versions along with the co-op MOS guidance. Sensible weather will feature a clear and cool night, especially after the post frontal winds die off. This will lead to a minor ridge to valley temperature difference tonight and a more significant one on Tuesday night as the sfc high shifts off to the east. This will allow for some patchy frost to develop in isolated spots of the deepest valleys both nights, though limited by the dry air expected Tuesday night. As such, the vast majority of the area of will stay frost free for another week. Additionally, both nights could see some patchy fog along the rivers towards dawn. Another pleasant and mostly sunny day can be expected for Tuesday with highs similar to today - warmest southwest and 5 to 10 degrees cooler northeast. Started with the CONSShort/ShortBlend for the bulk of the grids with adjustments to the night-time temps revolving around terrain differences, as well as knocking dewpoints down in the afternoon and again Tuesday night. PoPs were again zeroed out through the period - in line with all guidance. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 325 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 The extended period will feature a series of shortwaves embedded in the northern stream moving through the Ohio Valley. The first shortwave will make its way from the central plains across the Great Lakes late Wednesday night/Thursday, dragging a cold frontal boundary through Eastern Kentucky. This system will bring our next chance for precipitation by dawn on Thursday. However, operational models have continued to back off on the QPF potential with this frontal passage so most locations will only see a tenth of an inch or less. The upper level pattern becomes a bit messy beyond Friday with several additional impulses dropping through the Ohio Valley in west- northwest flow. Differences exist between the GFS and ECMWF with how far south and how strong these impulses become so have remained close to the CR Superblend solution from Saturday forward. That being said, there is the potential for a few showers Saturday afternoon and evening and again late Sunday night. Ridging builds back into the Tennessee Valley on Monday setting the stage for a few more days of dry and mild weather. Temperatures will remain near seasonable values through the period with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Morning lows will vary a bit more with potential cloud cover and passing showers. But most mornings, lows should be near climatology, in the mid and upper 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will be seen through Tuesday night. Some patchy dense valley fog is expected overnight, but should not impact the TAF sites. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...KAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.