Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261050 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 650 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 649 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers have become very numerous over the western portion of the area early this morning, as they continue their march eastward. have raised pops to likely for most of the area during the morning. There have been a few very sparse lightning strikes, but have not included it in the forecast yet, thinking that the probability at any given location is still quite low this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 414 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers developed over central ky during the night and were starting to move into the JKL CWA at forecast issuance time. These were occurring as a shortwave trough moved east in an area of isentropic lift. The hrrr model was picking up on these showers, but it has shown variation run to run. the forecast loosely follows the evolution of the precip in the hrrr for this morning. After this, the forecast transitions to a reliance on the nam and gfs, with a possibility for more development with afternoon heating. The big picture still has a southeast ConUS upper ridge in place, and a broad western ConUS upper trough. We are on the periphery of the ridge`s influence. The main westerlies were just to our north and west, and this is where the better focus for convection will be. Any pattern changes will be slow to come about. Will look for a general diurnal trend for precip in our local area, with an overall decline tonight, and another possible uptick with heating on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 327 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 The extended forecast will feature well above normal temperatures, muggy conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The model data at this time is a bit sketchy on timing details of the weather systems that might bring rain to eastern Kentucky from Friday night through the middle of next week, so precipitation chances were kept fairly low, in the 20 to 30 percent chance range across the board. In general, the forecast is calling for rain chances each day and night, with the best chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures each day in the extended are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 All was quiet at the start of the period, with mainly vfr conditions. There was some localized mvfr due to light fog. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring over central ky and middle tn. Short range models have this area of precip developing further east overnight. This is because of a shortwave trough moving east, coupled with isentropic lift. Will expect coverage to remain spotty, and have only used vcsh in the tafs during the morning hours. Localized sub-vfr conditions will occur because of fog and showers through the morning, but vfr should be predominant. Can`t rule out additional showers/thunderstorms developing with the heat of the day, but the probability looks low at any given location, and it hasn`t been included in tafs. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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