Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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513 FXUS63 KJKL 010006 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 806 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 806 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Main band of showers and storms continues to propagate mainly along of and north of the Interstate 64 corridor, in closer proximity to an approaching cold front currently pushing onshore of the Great Lakes and extending southwest roughly in line with Interstate 80. Will continue to see this front make slow but steady headway toward eastern Kentucky tonight, arriving Thursday morning. Showers with perhaps an embedded storm will continue to be possible this evening/tonight, although chances will diminish with the loss of diurnal heating. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 310 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Current surface analysis indicates that the cold front is still located well off to our northwest, across south-central Indiana, with a shortwave trough axis across northern Kentucky. This trough axis has interacted with diurnal heating to form scattered showers and convection, mainly north of the Mountain Parkway. The convection may push east and southeast further into our forecast area through the late afternoon. However, these showers shouldn`t pose much of a threat as dew point depressions are averaging about 20 degrees with most showers dissipating shortly after forming. The cold front is progged to make a southward push through Eastern Kentucky tonight before exiting to our south tomorrow afternoon. This will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through tomorrow morning, with some showers lingering along the high terrain through tomorrow afternoon. Overall, there is a lack of moisture with this system, with PWATS maxing out near 1.7 inches, so precipitation amounts should be minimal. The winds will turn more northerly tonight and help usher in cooler, drier air behind the frontal passage. This will bring a welcome change to the temperatures with highs tomorrow only expected to reach the upper 70s. Humidity will also lower with dew points dropping from the upper 60s into the upper 50s/lower 60s by tomorrow night, making things feel much more comfortable for Labor Day weekend. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS is expected to direct Tropical Storm Hermine northeastward across the Carolinas on Friday. Latest model runs then want to morph the system into a slow moving extratropical cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. This track should keep any impacts from Hermine to our east during the Labor Day weekend, with just some mid and high clouds wafting westward into our southeast counties from time to time. Otherwise, a pleasant weekend is expected with highs warming from the upper 70s on Friday to the mid to upper 80s by Monday. Humidity levels will remain pleasant over the long weekend allowing overnight lows to fall into the mid to upper 50s each night. An upper level ridge rebuilds over our region next week keeping our weather dry and sending temperatures back to near 90 for Tuesday and Wednesday. Dewpoints will also start to creep back into the 60s as our low level flow becomes more southerly. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish overall this evening and tonight, although an isolated shower is not out of the realm of possibility given the approach of a cold front currently positioned on the southern shores of the Great Lakes back along Interstate 80. Lowering ceilings, likely approaching MVFR/IFR, will take place early Thursday morning as a reduction in visibilities may occur owing to a stratus build-down type scenario. Confined these reductions to MVFR for now given lack of overall rainfall this afternoon/evening and the fact that afternoon dewpoint temperatures fell into the mid 60s thus lowering crossover temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms will attempt to develop across eastern Kentucky Thursday morning along and ahead of the cold front as heating ensues, with the best chances farther south near LOZ/SME. SJS may also see some passing showers early Thursday morning nearer the upper level forcing, but coverage looks to be low enough at this time to negate more than vicinity mention. VFR conditions should resume by early afternoon as the frontal boundary moves south and drier air filters into the Commonwealth. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.