Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220001 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 701 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 457 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018 Late this afternoon a cold front was positioned just northwest of the VA border and was about to stall. Showers which were occurring along the front have diminished somewhat. Scattered showers will continue to cross the region into the night, but a relative lull is expected. A large area of precipitation was occurring to our west and southwest this afternoon, from LA to southern IN. It was associated with moist flow off the Gulf impinging on the frontal boundary, and being coupled with the right entrance region of an upper level jet. The heaviest precip was on the southern end. This regime will shift northeast tonight. Models have struggled to an extent with the position of the heaviest precip. A blended solution suggests that although more rain can be expected in the northwest portion of our area late tonight, the heaviest precip should be just to our northwest. For that reason, have decided to forego a Flood Watch. However, the situation will continue to be monitored, especially for the far northwest portion of the forecast area, just in case it pans out differently. Precip could linger into Thursday morning, especially in the northern part of the area, but after that a relative lull should occur. Models have depicted another round of rain moving in from the southwest late Thursday or Thursday evening, but show even more variation in their solutions. The latest 18Z NAM has come in very bullish, but is not backed up well by the GFS for the amounts. Hence, confidence is not very high at this point. In terms of precip type, a mix of stratiform and convective rain is expected, but have not included thunder. There were a few lightning strikes this afternoon in our area, but the activity weakened and does not look very impressive any longer. Temperatures will be a challenge. The wavering frontal boundary and its exact position will play a critical role. Temporal temperature curves will also show some nondiurnal tendencies. These things considered, have loaded a blend of model data into the hourly grids and derived the max and min readings from this. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 312 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018 Active weather will continue into the weekend. Heights will continue to run well above normal Friday into Saturday. Departing shortwave energy to the north on Friday, will allow for a mainly dry day for most locations on Friday. A few showers could hold on in the Bluegrass region, but heavy rainfall is not expected to be a concern through Friday night. However, very warm conditions will continue with afternoon highs again pushing upper 70s to around 80 in our eastern counties. Our records are fairly high on Friday, so chances of breaking them are low. However, it will be a near record kind of day. Warm conditions will continue Saturday night. A shortwave will track across the area Friday night into Saturday, providing an uptick in shower chances. As we get into Saturday, there is even some instability that may be tapped allowing for a few thunderstorms. A strong low and associated shortwave trough will swing across the great lakes late Saturday into Saturday night pushing a strong cold front across Kentucky. A few thunderstorms could be seen with the front, although its coming through Saturday night which would limit the potential severe threat. We could still see some gusty winds ahead and behind the cold front Saturday night. Regardless, a local heavy rain threat could exist in some places. Way too early for any watches for this time period and any watch would be contingent on how rainfall plays out over the next several days. Thus, for now, will continue to highlight in the HWO and ESF. Looks like we will finally dry out on Sunday into early next week as high pressure makes a much needed return to the area. Rain chances could return by next Wednesday, but lots of uncertainty is seen with those rain chances, so will keep chances very low. It will turn more seasonable by early next week, as the warm weather finally loosens its grip on the area. A few nights could see lows in the valleys dipping into the 20s in fact. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 659 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018 Expect a period of stronger showers to linger across the area through this evening. With this, expect some spotty MVFR to IFR conditions across the area with the showers. Later tonight, a large swath of more steady shower activity will move in with the front. This will bring field conditions to near field mins at many of the sites. Will expect IFR and below conditions from late tonight and through much of the remaining TAF period. Winds will remain light and variable.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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