Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 182349 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE LOWS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES... WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON ELEVATION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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