Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240702 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 302 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 The weather of eastern Kentucky will dominated by a ridge of high pressure today and tonight. This weather system will bring well above normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions to the area through late tonight. The warm weather will continue on Wednesday. Low and middle level cloud cover will spread across the region late tonight and tomorrow, as an area of low pressure moves out of the south central plains and toward the western Great Lakes region. Warm front associated with this system will provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm formation from around dawn tomorrow and through the day on Wednesday. At this time it appears that lift and moisture in the vicinity of this boundary will be limited, so we can expect only isolated to scattered showers and storms in eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures during the period will be well above normal, with highs topping out the 80s both today and Wednesday. Tonights lows will also be quite mild, with minimum readings in the mid to upper 50s expected for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 325 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 As the upper level low scoots off to our east, ridging will build into the region at the start of the long term. Flow will then turn to the southwest, ushering in higher moisture and warmer temperatures. Ridging is expected to stay parked over the region through the work week, shift to the east just a bit for the weekend as a shortwave trough lifts into the Great Lakes, then get reinforced back into the Tennessee Valley to end the month of May. There will be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms every afternoon, but any source of low level forcing in terms of a front will likely hang up to our northwest. There is the potential for more widespread shower activity over the weekend if the upper level low feature nudges closer to East Kentucky (closer to the GFS20 solution). However, decided to keep it generalized with slight to chance pops in the afternoons each day to account for model differences in timing and coverage of precipitation. Temperatures will average well above normal each day with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...AR

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