Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 311915 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 NONE OF THE MODELS ARE REALLY HANDLING THIS AFTERNOONS SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY VERY WELL. AS IT STANDS...THE NAM12 IS CLOSEST BUT STILL IS NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB. AS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS WAS USED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WITH SOME MASSAGING DONE TO MAKE THE RESULTING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS KENTUCKY AND THEN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY FEATURE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY...BUT BY SUN RISE ON MONDAY THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF RAIN. AFTER A LULL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. BY 12Z ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING...AND WE WILL BE LEAVING THIS IN PLACE SINCE IT IS BEGINNING TO RAIN A BIT MORE ACROSS THE AREA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL DO AS THEY SEE FIT WITH THE FLOOD WATCH. TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. TOMORROWS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 13Z ON MONDAY...AS RAIN AND FOG FROM SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY AFFECT THE TAF AIRPORTS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER 0Z THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 8Z. EASTERN KENTUCKY MIGHT EVEN BE RAIN FREE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN FIRING UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS YET ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...AR

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