Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281725 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 125 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 FLURRIES CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SE KENTUCKY UNDER NW FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE THE FLURRIES TAPERING OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND DECLINING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY REMAINING FLURRIES TO BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FLURRIES TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING...JUST ADDED IN ONE MORE HOUR OF FLURRIES IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT IS LINGERING ACROSS HARLAN AND LETCHER. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEARING AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MAKING ITS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WELL REFLECTED ONGOING CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE DOTTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HANG ONTO TO THESE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WORK EAST ENOUGH TO CUT THEM OFF. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH AROUND DAWN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOWS DOWN IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE LOW 20S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM DY6...THU AND ON. FLOW ALOFT IS PROGRESSIVE AND GENERALLY ZONAL. BUT SIZABLE SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL KEEP WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSTABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST WINDOW. FIRST OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION. CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...MEANING WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND IT. MODELS AGREE ON TIMING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE...TUE NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A STRONGER...DEEPER SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE GFS STILL KEEPS THE SFC FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH ITS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER RETURN FLOW SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. CONSEQUENTLY THE GFS BRINGS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS A LARGE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS ANY MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS HERE...FOR A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE MID TERM TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS LEADS TO A MUDDLED...UNCLEAR FORECAST. WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...STAYED WITH A TRUE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES DO RESPOND NICELY...WARMING QUICKLY BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS OR HIGHER. ALSO NOTICING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TREND IN THE SOUNDINGS...ENOUGH SO THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INTRODUCED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO ABOUT -10C. BUT THE GFS HAS MODERATED QUITE A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 THE LAST OF THE MORNING FLURRIES ARE EXITING THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN COLD BUT DRY N TO NW WINDS INTO THE REGION. WHILE SOME FAIR WEATHER CU ARE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE NOW...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN ABOVE THE VFR LEVEL AND SCATTER OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SOME LOCATIONS /NAMELY KSYM/ ARE SEEING A FEW GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING...BUT EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO REMAIN AROUND 15KTS OR BELOW AND QUICKLY DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS WELL.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JMW

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