Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280223 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1023 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE. HAVE BLENDED EVENING OBS GRIDS INTO THE FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 WITH NOTHING BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES LEFT...REMOVED THE POP FROM THE FIRST PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 1930Z FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING I-75 AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG HIGHWAY 80 AT THIS TIME. SOME MINIMAL CAPE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW STORMS BUT THESE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AND OR PUSH EAST OUT OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND OBS UPSTREAM...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ENDING...THE CU UPSTREAM WILL DIMINISH. WITH SURFACE RIDGING NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT...THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOLING TEMPS...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONE PLACE WHERE THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT WILL BE THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. RIDGING ENTERING THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. FLOW REMAINING WESTERLY WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS WELL AND THEREFORE A MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY. TIMING WITH THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. A SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN MCS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY/S DOORSTEP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST ISSUE HERE IS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT LACKING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY WITH AN EARLY MORNING ARRIVAL. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE FORECASTED ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS. FOR NOW...THE EARLY MORNING ARRIVAL AND LACKING INSTABILITY SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL WITH SPC/S SUGGESTED MARGINAL THREAT ON MONDAY AND WILL MENTION A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE WEST...WITH TROUGHING RESIDING IN THE EAST. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS PREDICTING HOW SURFACE FEATURES WILL PLAY OUT...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. DID ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE UNDERCUT OF THE POPS DURING TIMES OF WEAKER FORCING...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 VFR PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BRING VERY LOCALIZED IFR. THE ONLY TAF SITES EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ARE KSME AND KLOZ...WHERE MVFR IS FORECAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

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