Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191213 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 813 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 813 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed and are mainly moving off to the east, affecting locations mainly south of the Mountain Parkway. This activity should diminish towards the late morning hours, as forcing relaxes. There is some question as to the potential of redevelopment during peak heating. The latest HRRR suggests another more organized batch of convection to move in from central Kentucky, so will leave in the current uptick in convection later in the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 353 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017 The latest surface map features retreating high pressure off of the Carolina Coast, with a quasi-stationary front aligned from the Ohio Valley to the southern Plains. Aloft, a high pressure ridge remains poised across the Gulf of Mexico, with an upper level low spiraling near the Four Corners region. Moisture has been on the increase across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures running several degrees warmer in the cooler valleys compared to this time yesterday. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the upper level low gradually shifting to the east through the first half of the weekend. For eastern Kentucky, a continuation of well above normal temperatures as well as the threat of some scattered convection will be the rule. For today, a subtle short wave trough will bring enough forcing to allow for some scattered convection through this morning. Once this feature exits by early this afternoon, there may be a lull in the activity, before a slight uptick occurs late in the day, with peaking heating. Temperatures today will top out in the low to mid 80s. Expect convection to die off quickly this evening, with perhaps another slight increase in coverage near and north of the Mountain Parkway towards dawn once again, as a warm front develops to our west and northwest. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s. On Saturday, POPs will likely be less, as the upper level ridge reasserts itself, and flow backs at the low levels. The latest NAM and CAMs support this scenario. As such, have undercut the blended POPs and gone with warmer highs. Temperatures will rebound to the mid to upper 80s, perhaps threatening a few record highs. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017 The period will be met with upper level ridge breaking down and heights gradually falling, as an upper level low ejects into the upper Midwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure will eject with the upper low and a trailing cold front will begin to march east. This will spread rain showers and thunderstorms east into the region early Sunday morning into Sunday night. Main concern will be for some of these storms could bring brief heavy rainfall given the higher PWAT values and fairly high freezing levels. Otherwise storms should be tame given the lack of shear based on the forecast soundings. In the wake of the front a surface high will progress east as heights continue to decline. This will bring drying conditions to the region and probably some ridge/valley splits on Monday night into Tuesday morning. The models do begin to diverge some as we move through the remainder of the forecast period. However, the latest ECMWF seems to be leaning toward the 00Z GFS. A deep upper low is expected to form in the Upper Midwest and this will progress east. The base of this trough will swing through the region by late in the period. That said, a front will progress through the region Late Tuesday into Wednesday. Given the timing remains more uncertain on this trough and how it will evolve will lean closely to the blended POPs for now. Despite the uncertainties the amplitude of the trough will bring temperatures down near and even below normal for this time of year by the end of the week, with afternoon highs remaining in the upper 60s Wednesday into Thursday. The CIPS analog and CPC also show this in the 6 to 10 day temperature outlooks. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017 A passing short wave trough will continue to allow for scattered convection across southeastern Kentucky through 16z. This will bring MVFR to IFR conditions across locations directly in the path of showers and thunderstorms. The convective coverage will likely diminish into early this afternoon, with some storms possibly redeveloping late in the day, before diminishing once again this evening. Winds will remain light and variable through this morning, before becoming southwest at 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon hours.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.