Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 310834 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS ONLY. THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENEREGY...INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD. CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT. WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...JMW

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