Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 042059 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE NEW FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A DECK OF LLVL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF KY AS OF 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW STARTING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KY. EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...EXPECT MIXING TO HELP BREAK APART THE BKN CLOUD COVER...WITH GENERALLY SCT SKIES EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING TO START OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM 12 MODELS. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JVM/JMW

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