Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 022009 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 309 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 309 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016 The challenge in the near term portion of the forecast is how to best handle the low cloud deck that covers the northern part of the forecast area. Earlier today the cloud deck had been making good southward progress, but this has temporarily halted. However, winds at 925 mb to 850 mb are still forecast to continue to veer and become more northwest as the evening progresses. Based on this and with support from short term model sounding forecasts we are still expecting the cloud deck to make southward progress tonight. There is some question about how far southwest the cloud deck will eventually extend. The clouds will impact overnight minimum temperatures, and with more clouds in the northeast will have warmer overnight lows there and colder temperatures in the southwest part of the forecast area. The uncertainty of the extent of the cloud cover later tonight into Saturday results in a lower confidence forecast than normal for temperatures for the near term portion of the forecast. On Saturday night the focus of the forecast shifts to developing precipitation in advance of a mid level short wave trough. Current model trends, especially with a view to soundings and cross sections point towards less chance of any snowflakes mixing in late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. The new forecast will decrease the duration and coverage area for any light rain snow mix possibilities, but will still include it for now in the north. However if current trends continue complete removal of any mention of snow mixing with the rain could occur in future forecasts. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 309 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016 Active weather is store during the extended period, as a series of weather systems are poised to bring multiple rounds of precipitation to eastern Kentucky. The first round of precip is expected Sunday and Sunday night, as two phased areas of low pressure aloft move across the region. One system is expected to move across the northern CONUS, while a second area of low pressure is still forecast to traverse the Gulf Coast. The area between these two weather systems is where our precipitation will come from to end the weekend and kick off the upcoming work week. Some locations north of the Hal Rogers Parkway may see a few snow flakes mixing with the rain early Sunday morning, but the latest model data is suggesting that most precipitation will be in the form of rain Sunday. The best chance for precipitation looks to be Sunday afternoon and evening, as the southern stream system moves by to our south, bringing Gulf of Mexico moisture into the area. This initial round of precipitation should be coming to and end early Monday morning, as the causative weather systems move off to our east. After a brief respite, a second more potent area of low pressure is expected to move toward the area out of the southern Plains Monday afternoon and night. This system will be more intense and have more moisture with it than the first one. In fact, widespread soaking rainfall is expected across all of eastern Kentucky Monday night and Tuesday. Energy and moisture from this system will allow for isolated to scattered rain showers to linger across the area through Wednesday afternoon. There will be another lull in the weather Wednesday afternoon and evening, as a weak ridge of high pressure briefly settles over the region. A third and final weather system is then expected to move quickly out of the northern Plains and across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley regions Wednesday night through Thursday night. Based on the latest model temperature profiles, it appears that this mid to late week system will have a bit more warm air with it, so the precipitation forecast will feature less snow and much smaller snow accumulations for Wednesday night and early Thursday then previously forecast. There should be periods of rain/snow mix and snow late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most of the day on Thursday should feature all rain, as warmer air filters into the area. Another push of cold air may bring another round of rain snow mix and some isolated light snow showers to eastern Kentucky late Thursday night into Friday, as the upper level low departs to our east. Little if any snow accumulation is expected. Temperatures through the period will vary from below normal to above normal depending on the day. Sunday and Thursday should see highs in the 40s across the area, while Tuesday and Wednesday will most likely see highs in the 50s. The coldest day of the week could be Friday, when the mercury may only climb into the 30s area wide. Nightly lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016 Deck of stratocumulus has continued to sink southeastward across the forecast area, with MVFR ceilings now expected to prevail across the northeastern one half of the forecast area into the day Saturday. The MVFR cloud deck is expected to persist at SYM, SJS and JKL through the forecast period. It is still uncertain how far southwest the cloud deck will eventually extend, but there are some indications it could reach LOZ and SME by daybreak Saturday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SBH

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