Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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342 FXUS63 KJKL 170347 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1047 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1047 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017 The initial surge of moisture from a low level ramping up across the region has subsided. This will leave us in a relative lull until after midnight, when another stronger jet core will begin to move into the area. This will result in widespread showers, and the possibility of a few storms closer to dawn. Meanwhile, some of the thicker cloud cover has thinned, allowing for the eastern valleys to dip below the 50 degree mark, as south to southeast winds have remained light thus far. This should modify after midnight, but until then, have allowed these valleys to only slowly rise, if not remain steady over the next few hours. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 655 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017 Rain showers will brush locations north of the Mountain Parkway, as a low level jet noses in across the area. Have increased POPs closer to the I-64 corridor through this evening, as additional shower activity is poised to move in behind this initial band. Have also tweaked lows down in the far eastern valleys, as early decoupling has allowed for some lower 50s. Thicker cloud cover is moving in, so these should be about capped at this point.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 338 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017 As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge extended across parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean with ridging north into portions of the Southeastern States and Appalachians. Meanwhile a trough axis extended from the Hudson and James Bay regions south west into the Northern Plans and then through the Rockies and into the Baja of California area. Within this trough was a closed low over Eastern KS with a shortwave trough trailing southeast toward the MS Delta Region. Further to the west, a ridge extended into portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. At this time, the axis of the upper level ridge was beginning to move to the east of Eastern KY and southwest flow aloft is bringing in a return of mid and upper level moisture. Meanwhile, at the surface, low pressure was centered over Northeast KS with a cold front trailing south into the East TX with the warm front extending east into the OH Valley and then arcing to the south near the Crest of the Appalachians and into the Southeastern States. Most Eastern KY is now in the warm sector with temperatures in many areas in the 60s. Some sun has also been observed in thin spots in the mid and high clouds. This evening and tonight, the axis of the upper level ridge will continue to move to the east of the area while the closed low tracks toward the Western Great Lakes and weakens to an open wave. The upper level flow across the area should be diffluent with a period of rather deep lift later on tonight as isentropic lift increases and the shortwave passes by to the northwest. With moisture also expected to increase widespread showers or light rain is expected. Enough cooling may also occur in the mid levels late for some isolated thunder with limited elevated instability, particularly in the west. Transporting the moisture in the area will be an increasing low level jet that should reach near 50KT late tonight. Winds on the ridges should also increase late and become a bit gusty and some lower elevation locations may become more mixed as the gradient increases. As the lower levels saturate, some stratus build down fog may again develop. The shortwave should track across the Great Lakes and into the St Lawrence Valley tomorrow while another wave moves into the Western Great Lakes and approaches the Lower OH Valley. Meanwhile the surface low should track into the Eastern Great Lakes by late on Tuesday with the trailing cold front moving into Eastern KY on Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next approaching wave. More widespread showers are expected earlier in the day along with some stratus build down fog with the deepest moisture that should begin to depart as the initial wave passes by to the north and east. However, as the next wave approaches, and combines with daytime heating and the approach of a cold front, additional scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms should develop. Inability as it is late tonight is more or less elevated and limited to confidence in any thunder is low. Chances for showers should wane behind the front on Tuesday night, but low level moisture should linger. In addition, the low level flow will have an upslope component and the moisture may be deep enough for some patchy drizzle late on Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 234 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017 Decent model agreement continues through the rest of the week and into next weekend...leading to good forecast confidence. Starting off Wednesday, lots of moisture will be in place to lead to some lingering drizzle, especially with moisture extending just above the low level inversion. Model soundings support cloud cover holding through the day and this would likely keep highs in the 40s behind the departing cold front. High/mid clouds will already be on the increase ahead of our next system Wednesday night. In fact, whatever clearing we see will be short lived Wednesday night. A shortwave trough will then move across the region from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. Good moisture and tremendous forcing/lift will lead to widespread rain, especially for the Thursday night period. As the system exits north on Friday, rain chances will diminish. Shortwave ridging will slide across the area Friday night and Saturday, providing a dry period. This will also set the stage for some sunshine on Saturday which will help boost temperatures well into the 60s. This will probably be our best chance at reaching the highs on guidance for the whole week. Clouds and rain chances will limit temperatures the rest of the week, but we will stay well above normal regardless. A deeper storm system may develop by Sunday, bringing rain chances back into the area once again. Despite the active weather, all of the systems seem progressive this week, keeping any flooding concerns at bay. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 655 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017 A low level jet pushing in across the Ohio Valley will allow for some passing shower activity, especially affecting locations closer to the I-64 corridor through this evening. Besides some temporary MVFR visibilities, expect VFR conditions to hold up through 06z. A cold front will draw closer from the west overnight, allowing for widespread showers to gradually move in from west to east. Ceilings/visibilities will gradually lower to MVFR, with some low level wind shear threatening in the east between 09 and 15z Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across the entire area during this timeframe, with rain showers continuing off and on through the rest of the day. South winds of 5 to 10 kts through dawn, will become southwest at 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of around 20 kts during the day on Tuesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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