Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301156 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR PRECIP. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WITH IT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS EXPECTED...BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES... POSING THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WX THERE. EVEN SO...SPC HAS THEIR SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TOUCHING OUR FORECAST AREA. AS WE EMERGE INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH WEAKER VERTICAL FORCING. WHILE ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE LESSENED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING COVERAGE/PROBABILITY WITH THE WEAKER FORCING. IF CONVECTION CAN FIRE...THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY STILL SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND...ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PERIOD KICKS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER PATTERN. BY MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRAG MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION MAY HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION EXITS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HANG ONTO SOME LOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FIRST ROUND OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS INTO THE 40S AT NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. AGAIN MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...BUT GIVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION...WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SURGE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A CHILLY END TO THE WEEK. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT COULD DIP BACK INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -2C. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT THESE MAY BE GOING LOWER IN THE COMING FORECAST PACKAGES. DID TREND HIGHS MUCH LOWER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S OR COLDER FOR HIGHS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS WOULD ALSO COME LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE A CHANGE FROM THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. UP UNTIL SHOWERS BECOME PREVALENT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. A DETERIORATION TO GENERALLY MVFR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IN REALITY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...HAL

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