Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 150520 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1220 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1046 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2017 Temperatures continue to drop off this evening under mostly clear skies. The coldest readings are around 30 degrees, with most other locations ranging from the lower to upper 30s. Have lowered many of the valleys a few more degrees across the area, as several more hours of good radiational cooling will be on tap into the overnight hours. This will result in temperatures as cold as the mid to upper 20s in the eastern valleys. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 723 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2017 Mostly clear skies currently reign across eastern Kentucky, as a short wave ridge moves in aloft from our west. Some higher cirrus is noted upstream, but this should remain fairly thin through most of the overnight period. The eastern valleys have already taken advantage of the mostly clear skies and relatively calm winds in place at the surface, as some temperatures in the mid 30s are currently being reported. As such, did drop the lows a bit, allowing for a few spots to dip into the upper 20s tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 352 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2017 After a shortwave exited to our east through the morning, cloud cover ongoing across eastern Kentucky began to dissipate from west to east. Mostly clear skies are now in place, with the exception of portions of Pike county which should continue to clear over the next hour or two. High pressure and a brief period of upper level ridging will take hold for the overnight and into the first part of the day Wednesday. Given the clear skies and light winds from the east, can`t rule out some patchy fog in some of the sheltered valleys and near bodies of water. Temperatures could also drop off a bit in the sheltered valleys, with some low 30s possible. Winds will slowly shift to a more southerly direction by daybreak tomorrow, as surface high pressure continues to drift east of the region. This southerly flow will continue through the day Wednesday, helping boost temps into the mid and upper 50s for the day. Also during the day Wednesday, another shortwave will shift across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will slowly drag southeastward towards the Ohio Valley, becoming elongated just north of the Ohio River into Wednesday evening. It will finally make a quick shift southeastward across the CWA through the overnight, exiting by or just before 12Z Thursday. The increase in moisture/southerly flow will prompt showers along and just ahead of the front. Models (including the GFS/NAM/and ECMWF) are all in fairly good agreement about the timing of the rain as it moves into the CWA, with best intensity expected late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, and lessoning up as it continues to spread across eastern Kentucky through the first part of Wednesday night, then quickly tapering off during the last half of the night once the front exits. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 318 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2017 Model agreement appears to be improving just a bit with the morning runs, but differences in timing and strength of a storm system through the region next weekend (our main weather feature of interest for the extended) remains significant resulting in a lower than normal confidence in the forecast overall. However, there has been a consistent run-to-run trend in a generally slower timing. There has also been a more subtle trend towards a slightly weaker system, though the GFS continues to come in much stronger than previous runs of the ECMWF. National guidance suggests the weaker trends, and thus the ECMWF solution is favored as a result of upstream teleconnections. Leaning towards the ECMWF solutions would also suggest a bit warmer temperatures behind next weekend`s system. Progressive pattern has a trough lifting out of the mid and upper Ohio Valley at the start of the period. Brief transiting ridge Friday is quickly followed by next weekend`s storm system. Thereafter model consensus becomes even more muddled but in general models hint at some shortwave energy approaching at or just beyond the end of the forecast window. For now will keep that portion of the forecast dry until a better consensus appears. Sensible weather will see lingering shower activity coming to an end early Thursday morning, restricted to mainly far southeast Kentucky. Only slightly cooler air will filter in behind an exiting cold frontal boundary Thursday. The threat of rain increases again Friday night into Saturday with the approach of the next storm system. Forecast soundings and guidance indicate little if any instability associated with this system. Consequently not expecting any thunder. A surface cold front will move through the area very late Saturday, or more likely Saturday night. Colder air will once again settle down into our area. ECMWF H850 temperatures drop to around -6 C by Sunday. The GFS is about 7 degrees colder. Will stick with the blended guidance for temps through the period but will attempt to tweak temps up slightly for the latter half of the weekend and early next week, closer to the warmer ECMWF. For PoPs, window of most likely PoPs will probably occur late Saturday into Saturday night. With significant differences in the timing of the cold frontal boundary through the area blended PoPs are being averaged down to lower values. Made some minor adjustments to the PoPs in an effort to correct this. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST WED NOV 15 2017 The VFR conditions will continue under upper level ridge and surface high to out east through early Wednesday. Then we see a cold front progress eastward later this afternoon into tonight. This will be accompanied by rain showers and lowering CIGs. That said, think most TAF sites will see MVFR CIGs by this evening. Winds will remain light out of the southeast to begin the period. These winds will veer around to the south and southwest ahead of the cold front and could see gusts up to 15 knots by this afternoon.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...DJ

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