Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190730 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY. STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH DAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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