Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011955 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 355 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTH INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THE SFC...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OH VALLEY IS ALREADY USHERING IN SOME REINFORCING DRIER AIR. FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ARE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST AND SETTLE ACROSS THE WV COALFIELDS BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DEPARTING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THIS CLOSED LOW AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE REACHING EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY AT THAT POINT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD DROP SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND NEAR THE FAR NORTH TOWARD DAWN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND THE REGION MAY IN FACT JUST REMAIN DRY. TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SLACKENING WINDS EXPECTED...CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...LOWS IN SOME PLACES COULD BE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MORNINGS AS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY THIS AFTERNOON. RIVER VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IS ALSO FAVORED TO DEVELOP. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE FOR MOST OF...IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LIFT AND AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS FOR EARLY AUGUST SHOULD HEAT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VALLEY FOG COULD AGAIN DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL... PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT WEST AND MEANDER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS TO WESTERN TEXAS. SEVERAL WAVES ARE FORECAST TO RIDE THROUGH THE NW FLOW AND NEAR AND ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN KY REGIONS. MONDAY MONDAY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG AND NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR THEN TRANSLATING SE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FAR EAST. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THEY ALSO HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH OVERALL FRONT LOCATION...GIVEN THIS PLAN TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UP ON THE OVERALL POPS. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. AFTER THIS THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THIS FRONT COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND GIVEN THE OVERALL VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WAVES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE OVERLAP IN MODELS. ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MCS ACTIVITY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CU IN THE MVFR RANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH CU POSSIBLY AGAIN DEVELOPING BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. COME MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ALSO PASS BY FROM TIME TO TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE OFFICIAL TAF SITES...PATCHY FOG AGAIN WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE 6Z TO 13Z PERIOD...PERHAPS BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE OR IFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JP

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