Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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207 FXUS63 KJKL 250236 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1036 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1036 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 Based on the latest radar trends and lack of instability, decided to remove thunder from the forecast for the remainder of the night. Also decreased precipitation probabilities across the area for the rest of tonight per radar trends and the latest model data, especially the HRRR model, which is more in line with what is actually occurring. The GFS seemed to wet for the rest of the night, while the NAM12 was a bit more reasonable as its solution was fairly similar to that offered by the latest HRRR. The hazardous weather outlook was also updated to remove mention of thunder for tonight. UPDATE Issued at 805 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 Went ahead and nixed Tornado Watch 264 early since any remaining strong storms have moved out of the forecast area. The forecast grids, zone forecast text product, and the hazardous weather outlook were also updated based on the watch cancellation. UPDATE Issued at 608 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 Went ahead and shaved 8 of our southwestern and southern counties off of the current tornado watch. The forecast grids, the zone forecast text product, and hazardous weather outlook were all updated accordingly.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 505 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 20z sfc analysis shows a stacked low moving through eastern Kentucky and this is responsible for two separate areas of thunderstorms this afternoon. The first started out as a large area of showers over our eastern counties that grew to have several embedded thunderstorms - all rotating and rather organized. Concern was greater for the western area of storms associated with the system`s cold front due to a clear patch in the clouds allowing for rapid destabilization through the Cumberland Valley and across much of the JKL CWA in the wake of the first batch of showers - justifying the watch issuance. However, just as the watch was going out for those western storms, the ones in the east strengthened to the point of needing severe warnings while also training brief, but very heavy, rains through parts of Floyd and Pike county leading to localized flash flooding. Now those eastern storms have cleared off and the western ones are working into eastern Kentucky. We will see how long they can be sustained and whether there was enough sunshine ahead of them to make for a favorable environment for further development and support for the storms. There is a potential for the watch to be cancelled early depending on these trends. Readings did make it too the lower 70s ahead of these next storms, but were in the 60s elsewhere, while dewpoints held in the upper 50s to lower 60s and winds remained rather light beneath the sfc low and away from any storms. The models are in good agreement aloft swinging the closed low through the Ohio Valley with the best energy focused well to the south of the state tonight though some weaker amounts will swing through the east this evening and overnight wrapping around to the north through dawn Thursday. This low then flattens out and works east of the Ohio Valley by Friday morning with heights rebounding locally in its wake. Given the model agreement have favored a blended solution with a strong lean toward the HRRR and other CAMS in the near term. Sensible weather will feature the storms settling down by dusk with showers remaining, mainly to the west and north of the CWA initially before shifting southeast into the area later tonight. Lighter rains will then set up over the area into Thursday morning with some training possible and the need to watch for localized flooding. The showers will gradually shift northeast and fade out later Thursday as dry weather returns from southwest to northeast and eventually clearing later that night. Patchy fog will be possible in the east this evening and early overnight where the clouds will be thinnest for a time while patchy - more valley concentrated - fog will be possible Thursday night. Again the CONSShort and ShortBlend were used as a starting point for the grids with only minor adjustments made to temps and dewpoints through the period. As for PoPs, made some significant adjustments to them to better represent the spatial and timing aspects of the shower clusters through Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 346 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 The blended model data was suggesting that after a dry day on Friday, eastern Kentucky will be in for a period of wet weather from Friday night through Monday, with another period of rain possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The wettest period looks to be from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening, when it appears that a frontal boundary will stall across the area. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will possible during this time. Temperatures during the extended should be running at or slightly above normal, with daily highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, and nightly lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across eastern Kentucky tonight. Conditions at the TAF sites will vary from VFR to MVFR overnight for the most part. There could be periods of IFR CIGs from 6Z onward at SYM, 10Z onward at SJS, 11 to 12Z onward at LOZ and SME, and 14Z onward at JKL. These lower CIGs would be in response to the onset of increased shower and storm activity across the area, as a large area of low pressure aloft spins its way across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions Thursday and Thursday night. Winds should be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight. The winds are expected to shift from the southwest to west, and increase to 10 to 15 mph across the area on Thursday, as an area of low pressure moves across the region. The winds could gust to around 20KTs at LOZ and SME on Thursday, especially during the afternoon hours. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.