Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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675 FXUS63 KJKL 290639 AAD AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 239 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 215 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Hourly grids were updated based on recent observations, satellite and radar imagery, and the short term model consensus of convection moving in or develop across parts of the area prior to sunrise. Uncertainty remains in the extent of fog and how long it will linger or even if this convection will develop. However, radar returns upstream as well as warming cloud tops would suggest that clouds advecting in may dissipate or be less extensive at least for the next 2 to 3 hours. Additional convection could still develop over the next 2 to 3 hours with the upstream shortwave approaching with the boundary in the vicinity. An SPS will be issued to highlight the areas of dense fog at this time. UPDATE Issued at 1053 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Updated forecast to remove pops out of the east for the remainder of the night. Models still show a wave moving in towards daybreak that could spawn a few showers and storms just before daybreak...especially near the I-75 corridor. Coverage should increase as we head through tomorrow as instability builds again over the region. Temperatures should hold fairly steady the rest of the night as dewpoint depressions are already quite low and temps have nowhere to go. This will set up areas of valley fog overnight. UPDATE Issued at 723 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 With the heavier rain rates exiting the area, have cancelled the remaining portion of the flash flood watch. Looks like a lull in activity is expected through the rest of the evening and much of the overnight hours. A weak wave to the west may move in late tonight, bringing the threat of a few showers or storms back into the area towards dawn. UPDATE Issued at 513 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Opted to let the flash flood watch go for much of the area given the lack of sufficient rainfall rates. Still some higher rainfall rates to move through southeast Kentucky, so will maintain the watch down that way for now. May be able to revisit the need for the watch in the next few hours as things move on out. Looks fairly dry back behind this batch of rainfall. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 325 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Latest surface analysis shows a surface low just southwest of the forecast area, along the central KY/TN border. This surface low should continue to lift northeast through the evening and early overnight hours, spreading showers and thunderstorms across the area. Looks like these showers will be lighter overall than rainfall earlier in the day. However, still cannot rule out locally heavy rain mainly in the eastern portions of East Kentucky. Fortunately, the Bluegrass region looks to be spared from additional heavy rainfall as drier air is quickly building east towards Lexington, per latest Visible imagery. The surface low should be east of the area prior to 12Z tomorrow with showers exiting southwest to northeast during the overnight hours. Depending on rainfall coverage overnight, in conjunction with a very saturated ground, there is the potential for dense fog to develop. This will be the primary concern overnight tonight. Additional upper level waves will move through the broad trough that is situated over the area. This will allow for continued shower and thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon through the end of the period. Though, coverage will be more scattered in nature compared to today. Temperatures will rebound into the mid 80s tomorrow with more sunshine in place, whereas morning lows will stay mild, around 70 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 335 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Upper level wise a large scale trough will setup across much of the Eastern CONUS, meanwhile the upper level high will be suppressed into the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is expected to hang on through much of the period before a ridge builds back east from the Southern and Central Plains by mid to late week. Overall models are in decent agreement with the overall large scale upper level pattern. Now in terms of the surface we are looking at a pesky front to be the feature of interest at least through Tuesday. This will interact with upper level waves riding through the flow to bring chances of storms to the region. Overall best chances for pops right now will be Saturday before signals become less defined. Particularly as the quasi stationary front drops south of the region by Tuesday. The best chances after this look to be more in the far east and southern portion of the CWA. All this said for most days this will be diurnally driven convection. The temperatures will be near to slightly below average before climbing back to bit above average by the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A lull in shower and storm activity is ongoing at this time, with the stronger returns and colder cloud tops heading into Middle TN and toward the Cumberland Plateau. Locally fog and low stratus is observed. Many locations south of I 64 are reporting IFR or lower vis in fog or low stratus at this time. With a shortwave approaching and the boundary in the vicinity, the threat for a shra or tsra should return by the 9z to 13z period, and during peak heating on Friday. Overall coverage may remain low, isolated to scattered so confidence to include more than VCTS in was night high enough at this time. At this time, we have IFR or lower in fog or low stratus for the first 3 to 7 hours of the period where debris clouds and additional cloud development and convection should lead to the fog dissipating by 3 to 7 hours into the period. The exception is at KSYM, where MVFR stratus or stratocu is anticipated. Outside of convection, a gradual improvement into MVFR and eventually VFR should occur thereafter through 20Z. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JP

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