Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 230815 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 A CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING PRESENTLY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LATEST WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME RAIN EARLIER TONIGHT HAS EXITED TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS ARE SPREADING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND WILL PROVIDE SOME RAIN INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WILL EMERGE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA. THE SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINS NEGATIVE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THUS...ANY ENHANCED AREAS OF LIFT WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER. THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ALL ELEVATED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS LIFT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY AND THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DEPICTED IN THE HRRR...HAVE OPTED FOR CATEGORICAL POPS LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS INITIAL WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTH...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER LULL THROUGH A PORTION OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL PUSH NORTH LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND HEADS INTO MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY. AGAIN...GOOD CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CROSSES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TIME AROUND...WE MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS AS THE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT PUSH EAST. THIS COULD YIELD WINDS 45+ KNOTS. EVEN WITHOUT THE INSTABILITY...SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL TURN QUITE GUSTY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE PRECIPITATION COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS A DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS TONIGHT ONLY IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 223 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN WAVES. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.