Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201756 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THESE SHOWERS SHOWED VERY SLOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT HAVE FINALLY STARTED MAKING A PUSH TO THE NE. THE MOST IMPACTED AREA SO FAR HAS BEEN ALONG THE VA BORDER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...WHERE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. NOW THAT THE MOVEMENT HAS FINALLY STARTED SPEEDING UP...THEY HAVE ALSO SHOWN A BIT OF A DIMINISHING TREND. WE HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN BOTH CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS...WITH FOG FINALLY BURNING OFF WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SCATTERED POTENTIAL NEAR THE JKL BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR POPS AND WEATHER. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS AS WELL...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOMMODATE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. ALSO...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BEING AIDED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS IT RAINS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT IT MIGHT ACTUALLY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS ALSO MATCHED UP A BIT BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT DATA AND MONITOR THE RADAR TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES WILL NEED TO BE MADE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING POPS. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE WERE LEFT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS UNDERLYING A WEAK RESIDUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREA OF DRIZZLE LINGERED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY... WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING. MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A WARM LAYER AT 650-700 MB WILL TRY TO KEEP DEEP CONVECTION CAPPED. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP BEING BROKEN...BUT WITH WEATHER FEATURES BEING VERY WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT LIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WITH THESE CONSIDERATIONS...THE POP IS LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW

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