Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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192 FXUS63 KJKL 261928 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 The frontal boundary stalled along the Ohio River will remain the primary feature of concern through tomorrow. Storms along this boundary early this afternoon are showing signs of organization as they track eastward. This cluster of storms is expected to track across the Gateway Region of northeast Kentucky later this afternoon with outflows probably generating additional scattered showers/storms further to the south. PWATs are analyzed above 2 inches across our northern counties, and are near record highs according to latest Mesoscale Precip Discussion from WPC. Thus these storms will produce torrential rainfall and any training of cells will pose a threat for isolated flash flooding. A severe storm or two is possible, mainly over our northern counties, with damaging winds the primary severe weather hazard. Convection should exhibit a strong diurnal trend again and diminish quickly after sunset before firing up again with daytime heating tomorrow afternoon. Models want to nudge the front a little to the south by tomorrow so anticipate scattered storms developing over our area, instead of to our north as has happened today. Another warm and muggy day is anticipated tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and afternoon heat indices 95 to 100. A shortwave will track northeast out of the western Gulf on Wednesday forcing a wave of low pressure to develop on the front to our southwest. This will move into western Tennessee late Wednesday night and bring a slug of Gulf moisture northeastward into central and eastern Kentucky forcing an increase in showers and storms by late Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Unsettled weather will continue through the forecast period as upper level troughiness remains over Eastern Kentucky. The operational GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement aloft with this overall pattern. The main concern during the long term is the potential phasing of northern and southern stream waves Thursday into Friday. The initial wave from the Mississippi Valley is progged to lift northeast through our area Thursday, followed shortly by the northern stream wave from the Great Lakes. The GFS model is slightly quicker and stronger with these waves and tries to phase them as they move through the area. This system looks to exit Kentucky late Friday but a series of upper level waves passing by will keep precipitation chances in the forecast through the remainder of the period. At the surface, there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for substantial rainfall will be Thursday into Friday as a surface low, coinciding with the passing of the previously mentioned upper level waves, moves across our area. Model soundings on Thursday are skinny and saturated from the surface up through the upper levels, with PWATS nearing 2.3 inches. This would be a record value for our area, per ILN climatology. These types of soundings are indicative of heavy rain producers and flash flooding. Additionally, winds through the profile are unidirectional, with training of showers and thunderstorms a decent possibility. There is also potential for some of the storms to become strong with CAPE values in excess of 2K. That being said, rain and thunderstorms will be possible with this system beginning Thursday morning and continuing into Friday evening. Saturday through Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm activity should be limited to the afternoon and evening hours each day. Afternoon temperatures throughout the long term will generally remain in the low to mid 80s thanks to afternoon shower chances each day. Expect morning lows near climatological normals, in the mid and upper 60s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A stationary frontal boundary remains located along the Ohio River with eastern Kentucky remaining in a steamy and unstable airmass. Scattered thunderstorms are again expected to develop this afternoon and diminish during the evening with fog developing tonight into Wednesday morning at locations that get hit by storms. Exact details at TAF sites are hard to pin down due to the hit and miss nature of the expected storms so indicated VCTS into the early evening hours and then a TEMPO period of at least IFR conditions in fog/stratus at all TAF sites. I did pinpoint SYM and SJS with a more pessimistic LIFR period with SYM being more likely to see a storm this afternoon and SJS likely to get fog development building over from the Big Sandy Valley. A repeat performance is then expected for Wednesday. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...ABE

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