Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200347 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT ALOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT REQUIRE A NEW ZFP. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND HRRR. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST. AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH. ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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