Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191740 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY FROST TO FORM. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 SKIES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLEARING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WILL BE LOWERING TO MIDDLE CLOUD CIGS TOMORROW MORNING. SOME 5K CIGS WILL START SHOWING UP AROUND 15Z TOMORROW...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY VFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JJ

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