Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291945 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT... SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY... THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER. HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING... BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 CIGS...WHERE THEY EXIST...ARE NOW ABOVE MVFR SO THAT HAS SIMPLIFIED THE TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD CLEARING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WITH ANY CIGS NEAR 4K FEET. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GREIF

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