Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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768 FXUS63 KJKL 260618 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 218 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 218 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A few minor changes to the forecast package, mainly to beef up the valley fog wording to patchy dense based off of reports. Also had some slight adjustments to overnight lows, again mainly in our typically cooler valley locations but probably not significant enough to alter the zones. UPDATE Issued at 1030 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 IR Sat showing a few high clouds moving across the Lake Cumberland region, but otherwise clear skies for most. Just minor tweaks to the grids with latest obs and trends in mind. UPDATE Issued at 706 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 WSR-88D radar showing the afternoon convection has diminished and this is in line with the forecast grids. Otherwise we are looking at a warm and humid evening under the upper level ridging and return flow at the surface. Grids are on track and only overnight issue will be valley fog potential. Therefore only minor tweaks needed for current conditions tonight in the grids and taking the thunder out of the HWO. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 348 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Upper ridging across the Tennessee Valley will edge northeast into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday into the weekend, keeping a hot and humid airmass in place across eastern Kentucky. This airmass has led to isolated shower and embedded thunderstorm activity this afternoon along a weak moisture gradient. Will see these diminish into late afternoon as this gradient and subsequent low level forcing decrease. Decay of diurnal cumulus field and increasing subsidence will allow for patchy fog development tonight and Friday morning, especially in sheltered valleys. An influx of relatively drier air coupled with another generally precipitation free day should limit more widespread development. Deep layer subsidence, stemming from the above mentioned upper ridge moving overhead, and a lack of forcing for ascent should lead to a dry Friday. An upper shortwave trough and weak cool front look to remain confined to the Ohio Valley and north as ridging holds strong locally. Best chance of any development would be off the Cumberland Plateau and higher terrain along the Virginia border, but a theta-e minimum in place along with subsidence aloft should preclude mentionable chances. This will allow for a hot afternoon as temperatures soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 348 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Not the best agreement amongst the extended this time around. The ECMWF was consistently drier through out the period than the GFS. The blended model data settled around a solution that features showers and storms moving into the area Saturday afternoon, and persisting Monday afternoon, with the most active periods being the afternoon and evening hours. It then appears that a ridge of high pressure will settle over the area from Monday evening through Tuesday morning, bringing a brief respite from shower and storm activity. A sluggish cold front will attempt to push into the area from early Tuesday afternoon onward. This boundary may spark a few showers and storms in our far western counties on Tuesday. After that, another ridge of high pressure is progged to spread over the area Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night. More showers and storms are then expected to plague the area from late Tuesday night through the end of the week. With the amount of uncertainty in the model data, decided to keep only very low rain chances in the forecast, at least until the models have a better handle on things. Hot and muggy conditions are expected to persist through out the period, with highs around 90 expected from Saturday through Wednesday. The expected clouds and precipitation should allow temperatures on Thursday to not be quite as warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s on that day. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 VFR conditions expected for most terminals. Both KLOZ and KSME could see some MVFR VSBYS due to fog late tonight into the early Saturday morning. Fog should lift and dissipate totally across the area by 10 a.m. Winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...RAY

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