Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161921 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 321 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 321 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017 Early afternoon surface analysis shows skinny high pressure stretching across the state, sandwiched between a weak front slowly sinking south across northern Ohio, Indiana and Illinois and a stationary front draped across the Tennessee Valley. The weak area of high pressure will remain in place overnight. As a result, the fair weather cumulus dotting the skies this afternoon will quickly diminish leaving mostly clear skies and calm winds...a perfect recipe for fog. While fog will no doubt form along our rivers and lakes, do not expect it to be as pervasive as last night after the good day of drying that took place today. Overnight lows will fall to between 60 and 65. The front to our north will slowly work south and reach near the Ohio River by tomorrow afternoon. Despite another warm day with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s, model soundings indicate a strong cap remains in place for most of the area and will continue to keep the majority of the forecast area dry. The exception is north of I-64 where an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out with a weaker cap noted in soundings closer to the front. Any shower or storm should diminish by Monday evening with a dry night expected, along with our normal river valley fog. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 404 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017 An vast upper level ridge will continue its expansion eastward into the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday, as troughing persists across much of the eastern conus, with a shortwave developing across the central Appalachians. Models are coming into good consensus of this ridge continuing to build into Kentucky, with rising heights expected through the entire workweek, and slowly pushing the shortwave/troughing eastward and out into the Atlantic by Thursday. While the upper level ridge is expected to remain in control through the weekend, it will be shifted southward somewhat as more NW to SE flow begins to take hold aloft in the northern U.S., starting Friday and continuing into Saturday. Given the strong subsidence in place as a result of this upper level ridging and surface high pressure, the weather looks rather benign through the first part of the extended period. Dry conditions are on tap for Tuesday through Thursday night. The only exception to this will be along the VA border Tuesday afternoon where the shortwave located over the Appalachians may have some impact in producing showers and thunderstorms across our eastern high terrain. Otherwise, building heights and high pressure will also translate to continued warm temps, topping out on Thursday at or just above 90 degrees across eastern KY, as the ridge reaches its peak across the region. For Friday, a frontal boundary is expected to sink southward toward the Ohio River, where it will stall out just to our north. As surface high pressure shifts southeast of the state, weak return flow will allow for more moisture advection into the region. This could prompt some scattered convection across our northern CWA closer to the boundary, and possibly isolated convection elsewhere throughout the day. A bit of lowering heights/disturbance aloft will help trigger more convection along the stationary front during the day Saturday, with scattered pops expected across much of eastern KY. Given the more NW to SE flow, can`t rule out the possibility of a MCS developing and sinking southward into the region during the day as well. Friday will remain quite warm, with highs similar to Thursday around 90 degrees. Added cloud cover on Saturday will only deter temps a few degrees, with highs still in the upper 80s. However, humidity will be on the increase with stronger return flow in place.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017 Flight conditions will be VFR for most of the period. The only exception will be in valley fog that will likely develop again tonight. The fog is not expected to be as pervasive as it was in our valleys this morning, but it still may affect SYM and SME to some extent due to their proximity to larger lakes. Will leave it out of the other TAF sites. No other forecast concerns with just some fair weather cu and very light winds. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...ABE

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