Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 302008 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 308 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE ELEMENTS FOR A LATE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY...WITH WARM/MOIST AIR SPREADING NORTHWARD ON ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD AND RIDE OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BRING US INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER MISSOURI BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM...AND NOW POINT TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN WHAT LOOKED PROBABLE IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BE DEALT WITH IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. THIS TREND IN THE MODELS RESULTS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEING TO OUR N AND NW. WILL ONLY CARRY 20-40 PERCENT POPS IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED PRECIP TYPE OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX IN OUR SW. TEMPS IN SOUNDINGS MAY SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVELS ARE NOT SATURATED IN THE SOUNDINGS. IF PRECIP MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...WOULD EXPECT SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW SNOW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 A LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 101 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS WILL DIE DOWN BY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL

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