Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 151722 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1222 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1222 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017 Clouds are on the decrease, and mainly sunny skies are expected by the end of the day. In light of current temps and expected sunshine, have raised forecast high temps a degree or two. UPDATE Issued at 846 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017 Other than an obs blend into the forecast, the main change in this update is to incorporate 06Z model data into the sky cover forecast for today. Clouds will linger longest in southeast KY, but all areas should end up partly to mostly sunny by late today. UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017 Precipitation has pulled out of the far southeast in the past hour. Only a few light showers will skirt counties bordering Tennessee in the next hour or so, otherwise it should remain dry. Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points according to the latest trends in observations.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017 The latest surface map features low pressure moving across central Alabama, with another center passing across southwestern Quebec. High pressure is situated near the southwestern CONUS. Aloft, troughing is aligned from the Great Lakes downs across the mid- Mississippi Valley and then into the Desert Southwest. Light to occasionally moderate precipitation is ongoing across the Tennessee Valley, out ahead of an approaching short wave moving across Arkansas, and the aforementioned surface low in the deep south. Temperatures have remained well above freezing across most locations in eastern Kentucky, with the exception of the higher elevations bordering Virginia, where light snow is falling close to the 2500 feet elevation mark or just lower. Ground temperatures remain above freezing; however, readings will continue to edge lower towards dawn. Given this trend, have expanded the Special Weather Statement to include all counties which contain roads that peak at 2500 feet elevation or higher, as a few slick spots may develop. Precipitation will be exiting through the morning from west to east, as the northern stream portion of the trough begins to take over, and allows for quick surface low development off the New England Coast by late today. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs ranging from the low to mid 40s, with clouds attempting to partially clear late. Northwest flow aloft, will allow for additional clouds to pass through late tonight into Thursday. This will keep temperatures in check, with lows tonight generally in the mid to upper 20s. The best chance of lower 20s will be sheltered valleys near and west of I-75, where clouds will be less. The air mass will begin modifying on Thursday as heights recover aloft. Highs will range from 45 to 50 degrees for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 349 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017 The extended looks to start off warm and dry, as a ridge of high pressure should be in place across the region. Eastern Kentucky should see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies Friday and Friday night to begin the period. This pattern should change on Saturday, however, as an area of low pressure moves by just to our south. By mid morning Saturday, the first rain showers associated with the passing low should begin moving into the area. As the low moves across the Tennessee valley, and eventually into the mid Atlantic region, the rain will migrate from west to east across eastern Kentucky. The best rain chances are slated for Saturday evening and night, with the precipitation tapering off Sunday morning. The rain should be gone by late Sunday morning. The model data is suggesting that a strong and persistent ridge of high pressure will set up across the southeastern CONUS to begin the new work week. In fact, it appears that the next chance for rain will not arrive in eastern Kentucky until late Tuesday morning, when another area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. There is some uncertainty with this part of the forecast, however, as the latest run of the ECMWF model was essentially dry toward the end of the extended, while the model blend had precipitation chances from late Tuesday morning through Wednesday. Went with the model blend for now, as the neighboring offices essentially did, but may go away from the blended solution in future forecasts if the ECWMF continues to come in dry. Temperatures will be well above normal through out period, with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Friday, and in the 60s Saturday through Tuesday. Nightly lows will also be quite warm, with minimum values in the 40s forecast from Saturday night through Tuesday night. The coolest periods will be Friday morning, when lows should fall into the lower 30s, and Saturday morning, when lows around 40 are expected. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017 MVFR ceilings lingered near the TN and VA borders at TAF issuance. These ceilings will rise and break up early this afternoon, and VFR conditions will then prevail areawide through the end of the period. Northwest winds gusting around 15 mph will diminish toward evening, and then remain light through the end of the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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