Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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643 FXUS63 KJKL 241658 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1258 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1258 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 High pressure continues to provide warm and sunny conditions across the Bluegrass state. However, a few mid to high clouds will stream across the region from the southeast from time to time. No major changes required for this update. UPDATE Issued at 1001 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 Most areas of seen the fog mix out this morning. We will be left with a few highs clouds and warming temperatures through the afternoon. Based on the soundings we could mix into some dryer air so will monitor for lowering dewpoints. This could also decrease the chances of fog tonight. Only minor changes needed for the latest obs and trend at this time. UPDATE Issued at 659 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 Fog is continuing to show up well in the deeper river valleys according to the GOES-16 fog channel. We have issued a statement in the HWO as well as a Graphical Nowcast to cover the dense fog concerns through the early morning. Fog is already starting to lift into a couple of the TAF sites, and will continue to lift and dissipate over the next few hours. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term grids were on track with current conditions. All grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 413 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level ridging in place. Mostly clear to clear skies will couple with southerly flow aloft and promote above normal temperatures yet again today, continuing into Monday as well. Overnight temps will continue to be mild as well, very similar to what we are experiencing early this morning. Fog has been slow to develop early this morning, but is now showing up well on the GOES-16 Fog Channel, mainly in the deeper river valleys. Expect this trend to continue for the upcoming night as well. After initially not including dense wording in the forecast, went back and added in it for this morning based on the latest fog channel trends and reports from a NWS forecaster. Have also resent forecast products to account for this change to dense wording as well. Once fog dissipates today and Monday, expect mostly clear conditions to take hold for the rest of the day. A few afternoon CU will be possible today, with soundings showing best support across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on the southern fringes of the high pressure system. Winds will remain light and variable through the period, generally under 5 knots. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 341 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday may reach the low to mid 80s across the area, compared to normal highs in the mid 70s. Low temperatures should also be quite warm to start the period, with minimum values in the lower 60s expected. The rest of the week should see a gradual return to normal or slightly below normal temperatures, as a trough of low pressure aloft brings cooler air to the region. Highs from Wednesday onward are forecast to max out in the 70s for most locations. A few spots on Saturday may not climb out of the mid to upper 60s. Low temperatures each night from Thursday night through the weekend are expected range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. The latest model blend and individual runs of the ECMWF and GFS models are all keeping the extended dry. Therefore, decided to go with the model blend and keep the extended dry for now. The overall weather pattern in the extended should feature surface high pressure and warm temperatures to start, with a trough aloft bringing cooler, but still dry, weather to the area from Thursday onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 Dense valley fog, LIFR or lower, is ongoing early this morning across much of eastern Kentucky. So far, TAF sites have remained unphased, with the exception of KSJS which has received some fog lifting from the valleys over the last hour. It is possible that this might briefly occur at the other TAF sites as well through 13Z. After fog dissipates this morning, expect mostly clear VFR conditions through the rest of the day. Winds will be light and variable through the period, generally under 5 knots. As we head into the overnight tonight, expect a very similar fog set up to that of last night/early this morning, with patchy to areas of dense LIFR or lower fog in the deeper river valleys. Given the lack of fog impacts so far this morning at the TAF sites, chose to leave mention of fog out of TAFs overnight at this time. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

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