Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161534 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1134 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. ALSO ENDED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING AND UPDATED THE FREEZE AND FROST WARNING FOR TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TODAY WHICH RAISED THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. EVEN CONSIDERING THE RECENT RAINFALL...SOUTHERN EXPOSURES COULD DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TODAY TO CREATE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW...THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EVEN GREATER TOMORROW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO UPDATE FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS BLENDING INTO THE DAYTIME FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ARE THE CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST BY LATE THURSDAY...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY BELOW FREEZING AREA-WIDE. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPS ALOFT WILL ONLY SUPPORT RECOVERY INTO THE 50S TODAY...PERHAPS JUST TOUCHING 60 IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREENERY AND RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...WE SHOULD SEE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DEW POINTS FOR MID APRIL AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN MILDER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. WITH TEMPS OFF THE SURFACE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SURFACE READINGS SHOULD SHOW A STRONG REBOUND DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE AIR WILL STILL BE DRY WITH RH DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ONE VORT MAX TO OUR NORTH WITH ANOTHER ONE TO OUR SOUTH AS IT CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORCING WEAK OVER KENTUCKY AND PROVIDE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. IN FACT THE TWO WAVES APPEAR TO BE DIVERGING AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER POPPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS IT CROSSES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. DRY WEATHER...THANKS TO ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DEW POINTS MAY HOLD QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST INTO THE WEEKEND...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL MORE NIGHTS OF LOWS INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE FROST. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SOMEWHAT DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL STAY MILD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING LOWS CLOSER TO 50. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050-051.
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&& $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JJ

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