Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 021535 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. UPSTREAM IN TN...A WAVE IS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS...ALREADY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EVEN INSTABILITY STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OR TWO. THUS HAVE UPDATED TO BRING POPS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST AND UPDATED THE FLOOD WATCH. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND DEW POINTS STILL AROUND 60...THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT IN THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WITH THIS INCREASE NOW WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE VERY MOIST. ALSO NOTING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OVER ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY POORLY...SO OUTSIDE OF CURRENT TRENDS...NOT MUCH TO KEY OFF OF AT THE MOMENT. CLEARLY...THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS COME UP JUST A TOUCH TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...WITH THE 3 HOUR ALSO COMING UP A TOUCH TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES. CLEARLY WITH ANY CONVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HARD TO OBTAIN...SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS VERY VIABLE. NOT MANY CHANGES THIS MORNING...EXCEPT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SOME SMALL POPS A BIT EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104- 106>120.
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&& $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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