Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300724 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 324 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 BLENDED LATE NIGHT OBS INTO THE FORECAST...AND STARTED TO INCORPORATE NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS FOR WIND AND SKY COVER. FULL UPDATE WILL FOLLOW A BIT LATER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED MAINLY TO TWEAK POPS AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE REMAINS OF AN EARLIER MCS IS FADING OUT THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS THE CORE OF IT SETTLES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS CLUSTER HAVE OVERSPREAD EAST KENTUCKY AND SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR RATHER UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE STATE. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND ALONG WITH ADDING IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR T/TD/WIND AS WELL AS THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. IN ADDITION...A FRESH SET OF ZONES AND AN UPDATED HWO HAS BEEN ISSUED. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEAR TERM. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...WILL EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO OUR AREA AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE MCS WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS US FROM THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL KICK OFF ADDITION RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LINGER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH OUT THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO NEARLY STALL OVER THE REGION...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND AROUND 60 TOMORROW NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND...ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PERIOD KICKS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER PATTERN. BY MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRAG MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION MAY HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION EXITS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HANG ONTO SOME LOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FIRST ROUND OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS INTO THE 40S AT NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. AGAIN MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...BUT GIVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION...WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SURGE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A CHILLY END TO THE WEEK. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT COULD DIP BACK INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -2C. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT THESE MAY BE GOING LOWER IN THE COMING FORECAST PACKAGES. DID TREND HIGHS MUCH LOWER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S OR COLDER FOR HIGHS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS WOULD ALSO COME LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE A CHANGE FROM THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. UP UNTIL SHOWERS BECOME PREVALENT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. A DETERIORATION TO GENERALLY MVFR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IN REALITY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...HAL

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