Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 252025 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
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
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLD ON OVER THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN THE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.