Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 031755 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE CAN EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS AR SUGGESTING THINGS QUIETING DOWN LATE TONIGHT...SO THE WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE LET GO EARLIER...BUT KEPT SOME WIGGLE ROOM IN THERE BY RUNNING IT THROUGH 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING. PWS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...TRAINING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 UPDATED TO BRING UP POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ACTIVITY MAY FILL IN BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO WILL STICK WITH HIGHER POPS DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 80 INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 UPDATED TO BLEND MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING...BACKBUILDING...AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THE PRECIP BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...OVERTOP OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ON A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUING RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DRIER AIR SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT... DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY RULING THEM OUT. MONDAY MIGHT BE ONE OF THE DRIEST DAYS...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OUT OVER KENTUCKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BUT WITH THE HUMIDITY RETURNING...IT CERTAINLY WILL FEEL WARMER THAN IT REALLY IS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 SKIES WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE BACK UP. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...KAS

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