Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251125 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A SHARP RIDGE PUSHED FURTHER EAST FROM THE AREA IN THE FACE OF A BROAD AND OPENING TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE FIRST OF THESE GOES BY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BODILY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL TROUGH/S REMNANT CORE. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FIELD THROUGH THE AREA AS IT MOVES BY AND LIKELY FUEL STRONGER AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WHEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF THE DETERMINANT FEATURES. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF QUIET ENOUGH FOR THIS HOLIDAY... AND FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR PERFECT WX...BUT WILL LIKELY TURN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY MIDDAY STARTING IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER HRRR RUNS AND HINTS WITHIN THE NAM12 SUGGESTED A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER AROUND EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN AREA BOTH MODELS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE...AND NOW DISCOUNTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. NEVERTHELESS...THEY DO AGREE ON A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INITIATES CONVECTION EARLY ON TO THE WEST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE REST. THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE TIME OF TYPICAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE BRUSHES BY ALOFT WITH A BETTER WIND FIELD AND AS MUCH...OR POTENTIALLY MORE...INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REST ON PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS OVER EKY TO OVERCOME ANY EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION/DEBRIS FROM THAT MORNING/S LIMITED CONVECTION. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN THE HWO...A WEB HEADLINE...AND A HEADS UP EMAIL TO OUR PARTNERS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DECISION MAKERS ARE NOT CAUGHT UNAWARE OF THE STORM POTENTIAL COMING OFF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EVEN THE WETTER MAV MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THAT...THE POPS WERE MOST SIMILAR TO THE LOWER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY HIGH GUIDANCE TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE ACTIVE...WITH REPEATED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE AIDED BY PEAK HEATING AND MAXIMUM INSTABILITY REALIZATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT WOULD FEATURE A SERIES OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE TRAILING FROM THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THESE FRONTS WOULD ACT AS THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS...AS A SLUGGISH COLD FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS TUESDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL FIRM UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKE SHAPE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY STORM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND TO COVERAGE AND LIKELY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY REACHING 10 TO 20 KTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AMID THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SETTLE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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