Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241935 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 335 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 325 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Deep layer low pressure system resides across the Carolina coast line and perhaps a weak surface trough extending northwestward into KY. Given the low pressure location we are seeing easterly flow across the region and mostly cloudy skies for most. There have been some breaks here and there, but the majority of the region remains overcast. This will lead to a more complicated forecast tonight, as some of this stratus could end up building down. This as deep low slowly moves north and east and weak upper level ridge tries to nudge into the region. Overall based on the trends will lean a bit lower in the SW and better cloud coverage as you move NE. Given that did keep fog going in the Lake Cumberland region tonight, given the higher potential for breaks in the clouds. These clouds will also complicate the temperature forecast and therefore kept fairly uniform temps given the uncertainty. This slow moving vertically stacked system will continue to move up the east coast. This will slowly clear out of the region through the day Tuesday as the upper level heights rise. This will allow for clearing skies and warmer temperatures with high progressing into the mid to upper 70s. This will persist into Tuesday night and did not go with any temp splits at this point, Given the increasing gradient ahead of the next system. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 254 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017 The period starts off warm and sunny on Wednesday with shortwave ridging in place aloft. Our pattern then turns unsettled again on Thursday as a resident trough establishes itself over the central CONUS placing our region under southwest flow aloft. Multiple shortwaves will travel through this southwest flow bringing periodic chances of showers and storms Thursday through Monday. Saturday may be the lone dry day as models show a warm front lifting to our north shifting any showers/storms to the north as well, at least temporarily. Overall, forecast models are in general agreement aloft but differ slightly with timing of individual shortwaves and surface features so accepted the standard model blend for forecast details in or order to smooth out these differences. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period. In fact, highs each day Wednesday through Sunday will likely reach the upper 70s to mid 80s putting April 2017 in the record books as one of the warmest Aprils on record across eastern Kentucky. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Cigs are fairly complicated areawide this afternoon with portions of the Bluegrass VFR and even some downsloping VFR in the far southeast at times. Overall keeping most of the TAF sites MVFR till around 20Z to 23Z. Then most should see the ceilings improve and this will lead to a complicated forecast overnight. Depending on the clearing amounts do we see a stratus build down or a fog development type night. Right now given the confidence level will lean toward MVFR fog at SME/LOZ and hold off on other sites at this point. Winds will remain light out of the east and northeast through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...DJ

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