Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 050726 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL SATURATED...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON. GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080- 083>086-111-114-116. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...HAL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.