Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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638 FXUS63 KJKL 240353 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1053 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1053 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Radar returns have faded somewhat in the past few hours, but still plenty of light rain/drizzle ongoing across most of the area. Will maintain categorical pops for several more hours before having everything dry out from the west. Some of the higher terrain areas in southeast Kentucky may end up with a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall from this overnight rainfall. This should be pretty sporadic however. UPDATE Issued at 855 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Two very distinct bands of rain showing up presently. The first is over Martin and Pike counties and appears to have a tie directly to Lake Erie as some the low level returns from JKL radar are being picked up in southern Ohio. The other band extends from Mount Sterling down to Middlesboro and appears tied to Lake Michigan. Within these bands, expect moderate rain possible leading to a quarter to a third of an inch of rainfall by midnight. Elsewhere, lighter returns are being picked up and as observed here at the weather office, plenty of light rain and drizzle continues and in fact, we have picked up nearly a tenth of an inch of rainfall since 7 pm. Expanded the categorical pops to capture the two bands and areas in between. Looks like this activity will persist well into the overnight hours until drier air from the west starts to push east late tonight into early tomorrow morning. UPDATE Issued at 653 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Light rain and drizzle continues to fall across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some enhancement of returns heading into the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky. This will continue to be where the highest rain chances are focused through the rest of the evening and overnight hours. UPDATE Issued at 458 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Updated to increase pops into the categorical range across much of southeast Kentucky with good upslope flow coupled with a deep layer of moisture producing widespread light rain/drizzle. In fact, reflectivities continue to increase as they have in the past few hours. Looks like the light rain may persist well into the overnight hours based on forecast soundings before winding down to some patchy drizzle by daybreak Tuesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 351 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Current conditions across the area feature the last of the banded rainfall weakening and lifting off to the east as the parent low shifts up the east coast. As this happens tonight, winds will shift around to the north and northwest. This will create a bit of an upslope component allowing for continued cloud cover and shower activity through the night. Therefore will keep at least some chance pops in the grids through tonight. With the event nearly over and the moderate rainfall pushing off to the northeast, will pull the mention of the minor flooding from the HWO. As well, with the moisture fallen over the area, have put in some instances of patchy fog through tonight and into tomorrow morning. For Tuesday, a slow exit for the cloud cover and northwesterly flow will keep highs in the 40s for Tuesday with the shower activity finally coming to an end on Tuesday afternoon. This will finally lead to another brief dry period Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. This will signal the beginning of a pattern change ahead of the next cold front drying out as it reaches the OH valley. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 351 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 The period will feature the completion of a large scale pattern change, putting an end to our long stretch of above normal temperatures, and marking the beginning of a run of below normal temperatures. Deep low pressure moving northeast toward the Great Lakes will initially bring us warm air advection as the period starts. One more mild day will result on Wednesday. A cold front trailing from the low will approach late in the day Wednesday and move through in the evening. Moisture return will be limited and occur just ahead of the advancing front, but the 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive with it as compared to yesterday. A model blend supports a POP as high as 50% with fropa near the VA border. POPs to the northwest will be lower, with only 20% used in our Bluegrass region. Our regime after fropa will feature persistent low level west to northwest cyclonic upslope flow and cold air advection- a recipe for clouds and flurries/snow showers. There will be multiple impulses moving through the flow aloft. Trying to forecast specifics with these at long range is problematic. Have used an extended period of very light precip potential, with some minor peaks when a model blend shows the best agreement for embedded upper level waves passing through the large scale northeast CONUS trough. The strongest impulse is expected late Sunday and Sunday night. The GFS now even shows a weak surface feature associated with it. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 653 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Deep low level moisture combined with upslope northwest flow into the higher terrain of eastern Kentucky will keep the area locked in IFR cigs through tonight and much of Tuesday. In fact cigs may flirt with airport minimums at times tonight into early Tuesday morning. Steady northwest winds around 10 knots will continue through tomorrow morning before becoming lighter by Tuesday afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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