Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 031745 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BROKEN UP AND A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. AS WELL...SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS. HAVE LOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY... BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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