Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290736 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 336 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD... WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE...WITH HIGHER BASED CU DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO THE UPPER 60S ON THE RIDGETOPS. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITHIN A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRUNG OUT BACK TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST...WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING THE CAP. FURTHER EAST...IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST CONVECTION AT BAY...BESIDES A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE GULF COAST UPPER LEVEL WILL ALSO GET PULLED NORTH...HELPING TO REINFORCE AT LEAST A WEAKER CAP ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. THICKER CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 OUR FORECAST IS A TAD BIT MUDDLED AS THE AREA LIES IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CORES...ONE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN BETWEEN THESE RIDGE CORES WILL AFFECT US THROUGH TIME. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE CORE TO OUR EAST TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY SOME MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE THIS PASSES...THE THREAT FOR RAIN DIMINISHES WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES...ALBEIT LOW...WILL THEN CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT REAL CONSENSUS ON WHERE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE BY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL SET IN ACROSS MAINLY THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...INCLUDING SME...LOZ AND SJS. SOME TEMPORARY IFR IS POSSIBLE AT LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT THE SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CU TO KEEP VISIBILITIES IN CHECK THROUGH DAWN. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL THREATEN DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION AT THE TAF SITES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. WINDS WILL ENGAGE OUT OF THE SSW AT AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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