Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181410 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1010 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. AS WELL...THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A DECENT SHOWER...THE OVERALL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. AS SUCH HAVE PULLED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM THE HWO AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD. UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES WITH THE AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE. ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING A MINIMAL BUT STILL PRESENT FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ONE CONCERN IN THE RECENT RUN OF THE MODELS LIES WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE BEHIND TODAYS TO IMPACT THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM A COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 FEATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CENTER AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN A WELL MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS BEING WHERE THE BETTER LIFT AND FORCING ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAINFALL RATES HERE AS WELL AS WHAT IS ADVERTISED LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO TODAY WILL FEATURE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AS THANKFULLY...STORM MOTION IS QUITE QUICK AND RESIDENCE TIME OVER A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...A FEW INSTANCES OF CELLS MOVING OVER THE SAME LOCATION MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. LATER ON INTO THIS AFTERNOON...A DRY LAYER BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE AND STILL SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS PRESENT...SOME MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LESS MOISTURE DEPTH A CHANCE OF A STORM THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAL COVERAGE INTO THIS TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASE IN STORM MOTION AND LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PAST DAY...THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS WAVE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS INTO THIS PERIOD AS WELL. OVERALL...THE CONCERN LIES WITH THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WITH THE REMNANT MCV TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN PORTIONS TODAY WITH A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GENERAL PATTERN ALOFT CONSISTING OF A GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW EARLY ON BEING SHUNTED EAST BY A BURGEONING RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. THE CMC IS THE FIRST TO DROP OUT AS IT SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN HIGHER AMPLITUDES ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE SIMILARITIES OF THESE LATTER MODELS CONTINUED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WHILE BROAD TROUGHING HOLDS TOUGH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STREAM OF SEASONABLY FAST FLOW WILL CARRY A STEADY BATCH OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE CRUCIAL STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY WAVE BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FAVORED THEIR SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS DESPITE THE INCREASED HUMIDITY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE ACTIVITY ALOFT AND THE NEARBY SFC BOUNDARIES THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTS AS WELL. THIS WILL MEAN A WARM...WET...AND STORMY PERIOD FOR EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE CAVEAT WILL BE SHOULD THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST TAKE OVER AND SHIFT JUST A BIT NORTHEAST WE MAY BE IN FOR A HOT AND HUMID TIME INSTEAD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...BUT AS OF NOW THE BEST BET IS FOR A CONTINUATION OF OUR MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP AT NIGHT AND LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LIKEWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE TIMING AND DURATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S EACH DAY. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID GIVE THE POPS MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS SLIGHTLY EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LINGER OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY LIFT AND THE AREA BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT A BIT. WEST WINDS WILL ALSO ENSURE AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY AT MOST SITES AS WELL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW CEILING DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN WAVES BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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