Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 130552 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1252 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1043 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018 The band of snow that produced appreciable amounts in western and parts of central KY and TN is starting to look less prolific that it did earlier. This is likely due to the low starting to reorganize over the mid Atlantic states and another deformation band many form northeast of the area later tonight. High Res guidance brings the weakening band across the area overnight. Ahead of this band, some upslope enhancement is occurring to the precipitation in the southeast at this time and upslope flow will have some influence on qpf and snow amounts as the band works east. The band should shift east across the northwestern two thirds of the area over the next few hours. However, given recent downward trends in qpf and weaker radar presentation of the incoming band amounts should average 1 to 3 inches across the area. The far southeast should mainly be in the 1 to 2 inch range with locally 3 inches from upslope enhancements. If the main band holds together somewhat a stray 4 inch storm total may still be possible in Fleming County. As temperatures continue to fall into and through the 20s and into the teens in the north, impacts to highways will still exist and untreated or secondary roads, bridges, and overpass will likely lead to hazardous travel. UPDATE Issued at 718 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018 Reports of rain changing to snow or a mix of sleet and freezing rain or even all sleet from Rowan County to Whitley County. AWOS sites at EKQ and SME are reporting all snow with spotter reports of snow in Rockcastle, Mccreary, and Whitely counties as well. Precipitation is expected to continue to change to transition from rain to snow with a mix during the transition over the next 4 hours. Latest trends in QPF and snow ratios as well as surface temperature curve supports the previous forecast snowfall with 1 to 3 inches for most locations. Some spotty amounts a little over 3 inches are possible north of I 64 with the northern half of Fleming expected to average near 4 inches. Other than minor adjustments to precipitation type and temperatures based on observations no significant changes were needed at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 243 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018 A negatively tilted shortwave trough will push northeast across the region through tonight. An area of low pressure over Tennessee will push northeast across far southeast Kentucky tonight associated with this wave. As the system strengthens, colder air currently off to our west will get pulled east with a changeover from rain to snow this evening. We do lose ice for a short time this evening under the dry slot, so we could see a period of freezing drizzle as temperatures drop to or just below freezing. However, shouldn`t see much impact except for elevated surfaces as ground temperatures are still fairly warm. Ice will be quickly reintroduced into the low level clouds later this evening as the low levels cool off rapidly. This will bring the threat of snow into the area after 6 or 7 pm. Expected snowfall for this event has not changed, but given amounts in the north are close to warning, generally 3 to 4, it would not take much to push us over. Thus, we have coordinated with Charleston and Wilmington to issue a winter storm warning for Fleming county. Still looks to be a borderline warning situation, but close enough to pull the trigger. The rest of the area still looking at a solid 1 to 3 inches of snowfall as the wrap around moisture swings across the area tonight. With temperatures dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s by dawn, icy conditions will develop on untreated roads. Snow will come to an end early Saturday morning, but some flurries or light snow showers could hold on into the afternoon. Temperatures will hold fairly steady through the day with cold advection and cloud cover holding on. We may see clouds hold on through Saturday night and if this is the case, the flurries could continue as well. Will generally stay close to blended guidance for Saturday night lows given the uncertainty with the cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 438 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018 An overall cold period is in store, with an eastern North American trough dominating our weather until late in the week. An upper low is expected to drop south in the trough Sunday and Monday, with an associated surface low sending a cold front through Kentucky late Monday and Monday night. Warm air advection/overrunning along the front should bring clouds and potentially some light snow to the JKL forecast area mainly Monday night into Tuesday. After above freezing temps on Monday, the cold front will send us back into the deep freeze. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night should be in the single digits, and highs Tuesday and Wednesday below freezing. Late in the week the upper trough/low shifts eastward and gets replaced by ridging over the eastern CONUS, with a return of warm air advection and temps expected to climb well above freezing on Friday. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2018 MVFR to IFR conditions still plaguing much of eastern Kentucky as light snow continues to fall across much of the local airspace. SYM has been experiencing LIFR visibilities and ceilings, but these should improve within the next couple of hours as snow diminishes in coverage/intensity. Northwest winds will continue to gust upwards of 20-25 knots through the night into early Saturday morning as the snow tapers to mainly flurries after daybreak. Speeds should then gradually decrease through the day as MVFR and eventually VFR ceilings return.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ044.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.