Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 251658 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1258 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED AND SLOWED DOWN OUR TEMPERATURE RISE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL LOWER HIGHS A BIT BACK TO MORE AROUND 80 TODAY. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MEAGER AS INDICATED FROM THE RATHER FLAT CU OUT THE WINDOW AT THE MOMENT. THUS...NO PLANS TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE...ON THEIR WAY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY. OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME FAIRLY GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY AS RH DROPS BELOW 35 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 STOUT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW RIDGE LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEYS SIT IN THE 40S. NOT SEEING ANY EVIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG AS CLOUD DECKS AT 6000 FEET AND 20000-25000 FEET MOVE OVERHEAD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CIRRUS PUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY COURTESY OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CORRESPONDING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...THUS ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW-MID 80S TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BUILDING CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A RATHER STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TYPE CAP WILL HOLD STRONG NEAR OR JUST BELOW H70...THEREFORE LIKELY LIMITING UPWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO DEVELOP ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LACK OF FORCING WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE...EVEN IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN RETURN...IN DEVELOPING MORE THAN FLAT CUMULUS. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIST NEAR THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING AND QUESTIONABLE ADEQUATE MOISTURE RECOVERY BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE HEADWAY SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS UPPER ENERGY FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM GETS ABSORBED INTO BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE KEY DRIVER OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH SAID TRIGGER LOOK PLENTY SUFFICE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT MEAGER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS AT THE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING STORM CORES TO ORGANIZE AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE IN THE OFFING IN A WEAKLY CAPPED MID-LATE AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT THINKING IS BETTER STORM COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATTER AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME AS UNUSUALLY DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TAKES PLACE TODAY...THEREFORE KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A LONGER DURATION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SMALL HAIL GIVEN LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT CAN SURGE DURING THE DAY...COULD SEE SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IF COLD POOL PROCESSES DO NOT QUICKLY OVERWHELM REMAINING BUOYANCY INTO THE EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY RIPPLES IN THE 500MB LAYER. RIGHT NOW KEEP OVERALL BETTER CHANCES OF POPS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A LULL PERIOD EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MOVES NE AND BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS MORE OF A WARM FRONT. THEN COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW DO BRING AT LEAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THIS REMAINS THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN REDUCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...AS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT AND FRONT TRACKS EAST. THAT SAID FRIDAY STANDS TO BE THE DRY DAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SLIDES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSES EAST. THEN AFTER THE DRY PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH INITIAL OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...RIGHT NOW LEFT THUNDER OUT GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY. WHILE LIMITED A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND AND THEREFORE INTRODUCE THUNDER AGAIN BY SUNDAY OVERALL SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS MARGINAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME. ONE ISSUE IS THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE BETTER WAVES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE. ALSO BETTER FORCING RIDES NORTH EACH TIME THEREFORE BECOMING A LIMITING FACTOR. THIS SEEMS TO BE BACKED UP BY THE CIPS ANALOG AND SPC MARS WHICH HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SIGNAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOR EASTERN KY. NOW TEMP WISE LOOKS LIKE WE REMAIN IN A WARM PATTERN. LOW TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWERS 60S...WHILE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE UPPER 40S. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THIS TIME OF YEAR AVERAGE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.