Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271923 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 323 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND INTO NORTHERN KY...THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING IN...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BUT WITH THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE A WEAKER CAP IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER EASY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE CELLS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ELEVATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE COULD SEE A FEW POP UP STORMS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS THEY WILL REMAIN BRIEF. MAIN WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND THE COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT LIMITED. WITH THAT SAID...THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT FRONT WITH A GOOD CHANGE IN AIRMASS. THUS...PLAN TO GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON THE POPS AS WE ARE MORE LIKELY SEE SOMETHING EVEN IF IT IS MORE SPORADIC. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT AND EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER SHOULD ABOUND FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITY WILL BE KNOCKED BACK AS WELL...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT SOME VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOG TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE THE CHALLENGE AS SOME LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THIS AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER EASY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE VERY LEAST...HAVE PUT SOME FIELD MINS AND BELOW AT LOZ AND SME WITH BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER SITES. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY AGAIN AND HAVE PUT IN SOME VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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