Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 142052 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 352 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 352 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2017 After a shortwave exited to our east through the morning, cloud cover ongoing across eastern Kentucky began to dissipate from west to east. Mostly clear skies are now in place, with the exception of portions of Pike county which should continue to clear over the next hour or two. High pressure and a brief period of upper level ridging will take hold for the overnight and into the first part of the day Wednesday. Given the clear skies and light winds from the east, can`t rule out some patchy fog in some of the sheltered valleys and near bodies of water. Temperatures could also drop off a bit in the sheltered valleys, with some low 30s possible. Winds will slowly shift to a more southerly direction by daybreak tomorrow, as surface high pressure continues to drift east of the region. This southerly flow will continue through the day Wednesday, helping boost temps into the mid and upper 50s for the day. Also during the day Wednesday, another shortwave will shift across the mid and upper Missisippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will slowly drag southeastward towards the Ohio Valley, becoming elongated just north of the Ohio River into Wednesday evening. It will finally make a quick shift southeastward across the CWA through the overnight, exiting by or just before 12Z Thursday. The increase in moisture/southerly flow will prompt showers along and just ahead of the front. Models (including the GFS/NAM/and ECMWF) are all in fairly good agreement about the timing of the rain as it moves into the CWA, with best intensity expected late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, and lessoning up as it continues to spread across eastern Kentucky through the first part of Wednesday night, then quickly tapering off during the last half of the night once the front exits. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 318 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2017 Model agreement appears to be improving just a bit with the morning runs, but differences in timing and strength of a storm system through the region next weekend (our main weather feature of interest for the extended) remains significant resulting in a lower than normal confidence in the forecast overall. However, there has been a consistent run-to-run trend in a generally slower timing. There has also been a more subtle trend towards a slightly weaker system, though the GFS continues to come in much stronger than previous runs of the ECMWF. National guidance suggests the weaker trends, and thus the ECMWF solution is favored as a result of upstream teleconnections. Leaning towards the ECMWF solutions would also suggest a bit warmer temperatures behind next weekend`s system. Progressive pattern has a trough lifting out of the mid and upper Ohio Valley at the start of the period. Brief transiting ridge Friday is quickly followed by next weekend`s storm system. Thereafter model consensus becomes even more muddled but in general models hint at some shortwave energy approaching at or just beyond the end of the forecast window. For now will keep that portion of the forecast dry until a better consensus appears. Sensible weather will see lingering shower activity coming to an end early Thursday morning, restricted to mainly far southeast Kentucky. Only slightly cooler air will filter in behind an exiting cold frontal boundary Thursday. The threat of rain increases again Friday night into Saturday with the approach of the next storm system. Forecast soundings and guidance indicate little if any instability associated with this system. Consequently not expecting any thunder. A surface cold front will move through the area very late Saturday, or more likely Saturday night. Colder air will once again settle down into our area. ECMWF H850 temperatures drop to around -6 C by Sunday. The GFS is about 7 degrees colder. Will stick with the blended guidance for temps through the period but will attempt to tweak temps up slightly for the latter half of the weekend and early next week, closer to the warmer ECMWF. For PoPs, window of most likely PoPs will probably occur late Saturday into Saturday night. With significant differences in the timing of the cold frontal boundary through the area blended PoPs are being averaged down to lower values. Made some minor adjustments to the PoPs in an effort to correct this.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2017 The low MVFR stratus in place across portions of eastern KY is starting to erode away as a shortwave continues to exit east of the region. Once clouds dissipate over the next few hours, VFR conditions will take hold, and should remain in place through the overnight with high pressure in control. Winds will remain light and generally out of the NE to E through the day, before transitioning to the SE through the overnight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JMW

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