Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271750 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 150 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1041 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Observations are quickly starting to improve over the last half hour. Went ahead and sent out new forecast package with zones and HWO to take out early morning fog wording. Otherwise, did another simple refresh of the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds to make sure current observations were well reflected. These updates were published and sent to NDFD/web. UPDATE Issued at 952 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Continuing to see observations at 13 to 14Z that are below a quarter mile, mainly in the southwest portion of the CWA. As such, have extended fog in forecast for another hour, with it expected to clear across the CWA over the next half hour. Will wait and update zone forecast and HWO until after these observations start showing some improvement. In the meantime, went ahead and updated the near term forecast to make sure the temps, dew points, and winds reflected the latest observations. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. UPDATE Issued at 635 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Patchy dense fog remains in place across the southern and eastern portions of the region this morning with some locations down to a quarter of a mile visibility. This fog should dissipate around 13Z this morning, leading to a pleasant fall day. In terms of the grids, did a quick refresh to the hourly temps and sky cover and sent updates to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 The large upper level low currently over the western Great Lakes region will gradually shift southward towards Kentucky throughout the short term. Energy from this low is expected to pivot into our area Wednesday afternoon, providing enough lift for at least a chance for showers. Decided not to include mention of thunder at this time due to model soundings showing very limited instability. In terms of sensible weather, today will finally feel like autumn with a much drier airmass in place and seasonal temperatures in the lower 70s. Patchy dense fog has developed early this morning but should dissipate/lift around 13Z. Once the fog dissipates, skies should remain mostly clear throughout the day as the upper low stays far enough to our north. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 40s before rebounding into the low and mid 70s by tomorrow afternoon. As the upper low approaches tomorrow afternoon, cloud cover and shower chances will increase, with shower chances peaking in the afternoon and evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 310 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 The models remain in decent agreement with the amplified and blocky long wave pattern to dominate across the CONUS through the majority of the period. An upper level low will drop south out of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions through Friday, before gradually shifting back to the north and diminishing through early next week. This will result in below normal temperatures and periods of unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky through the first part of the weekend. Dry weather and a gradual warm up will then ensue as the low pulls away, and 500 mb heights recover. The blended guidance came in very reasonable with the rain chances through the period, so stuck close to the given values. Sky cover did look on the high side, so dialed this back somewhat. Also allowed for slightly warmer lows at night, particularly when the system is closest to our area. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Surface high pressure has taken temporary control of the region after the passage of a cold front yesterday. Deep dry air flowing into the region from the west and northwest have allowed skies to remain clear across the region, while winds at the surface remain light and variable. This regime will last into the overnight, with some of the deeper valley locations expected to see fog development under the stable airmass. Not expecting the TAF sites to be affected for the most part, so continued to leave out of all but SME at this time. Tomorrow, a strong low pressure system to our north will begin to sink southward. This will push another weak cold front through Kentucky during the day. Winds will become more southerly throughout the day, promoting increasing cloud cover. However, clouds should remain well above VFR through the forecast period, and any precipitation associated with the front should hold off until after the forecast period as well.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

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