Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 141926 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 326 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE S/SE BORDER WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AS A WEAK 850 DISTURBANCE PARKS OVER THE APPALACHIANS...AND INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S...COOLEST IN THE NORTH AND WARMEST IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE BEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN. A TRANSITION WILL BE IN STORE TOMORROW...AS WE AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM OUR NW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...AS CLOUDS INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE IT A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIMINISH ONCE THE PRECIP REACHES THE EASTERN KY REGION. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP MOVING IN THROUGH 6Z BUT THEN DISSIPATING AFTER 6Z AS THE SYSTEM LOSES STRENGTH. THE NAM SHOWS THE PRECIP AND BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER...BUT SEEMS TO TRY TO BREAK UP SOME OF THE BEST COVERAGE...SO THAT IT IS A GOOD CROSS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...AS WELL AS THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE...STUCK WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE OR LAPSE RATES...THINK IT IS QUITE SAFE TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. ALSO...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SO FAST GIVEN THE 300MB JET STREAM MOTION OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN OF SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING CELLS PRODUCING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREATS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FEATURING A LARGE AND FILLING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SIMILARITIES BREAK DOWN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DIPS DEEPER INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS AND STILL SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT...THOUGH TRENDING TOWARD A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OUTLIER SOLUTION OF 24 HOURS AGO. THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILDS INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS ENERGY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND INSTEAD SHOWS RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WITH MUCH HIGHER HEIGHTS THROUGH KENTUCKY. THE 12Z ECMWF JUST COMING IN HAS TRENDED SHARPLY TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH ITS CORE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES RATHER THAN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE TREND AND BETTER SUPPORT WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER STICKING CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ONE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO EAST KENTUCKY JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO GENERATE SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS...AS IT SETTLES INTO THE BLUEGRASS SUNDAY. THE CR GRID LOAD AGAIN PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...THOUGH AGAIN DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND EACH DAY AND ALSO TO GO A BIT DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS MADE FOR AN OVERALL NICE DAY. A BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH HAS KEPT A DECK OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS FAR SE KY...MAINLY AFFECTING KLOZ AND KSJS. OTHERWISE...FEW TO SCT MVFR CLOUDS...AS WELL AS A SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN KY WITH PLENTY OF SUN PEAKING THROUGH. FOR OVERNIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS. GOING BY WHAT OCCURRED AT THE TAF SITES LAST NIGHT...EXPECT ALL SITES TO REMAIN VOID OF THE VALLEY FOG EXCEPT MAYBE KSJS...WHICH COULD SEE SOME VARIABLE CATEGORIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THAT OF TODAY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THEN...AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.