Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221240 CCA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 840 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 744 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Fog is starting to lift and dissipate in some locations, although it remains the most widespread and dense in some of the valleys generally south of the Mountain Parkway and along and east of Interstate 75. The HWO highlighted this and an SPS was issued to handle the dense fog in the valleys through 9 AM earlier this morning and with the fog starting to lift and mix out this timing still remains on target. Only minor adjustments have been made to the hourly grids based on recent observations. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 339 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Early this morning, a mid level trough continues to depart to the east of the area with mid level height rises as a mid level ridge is building into the area. At the surface, high pressure is building into the Great Lakes and Lower OH Valley Region from the mid MS Valley. The height rises are expected to continue on average into the day on Tuesday, before the axis of the ridge approaches and begins to shift east of the area late in the period. The surface high will continue building across the OH Valley today with the center of the high settling across the Mid Atlantic States by late tonight. The axis of this high should move to the Eastern Seaboard by the end of the period. Fog should persist through sunrise, dense in some of the valley locations, particularly the deeper valleys, before lifting and dissipating by 2 to 3 hours after sunrise today. The dense valley fog this morning will remain the primary weather concern in the short term as high pressure will remain dominant. The fog is already highlighted in the HWO and a Graphical Nowcast and plan to highlight in an SPS for the morning commute. Otherwise, the relatively cooler and drier airmass will bring a reprieve from the warm and humid weather that has prevailed for much of this month. Highs today will average around 5 degrees below normal and this combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s will make it feel more like early September. Lows tonight should fall into the mid to upper 50s, especially in the valleys while some ridgetops may not fall below 60 as the surface high remains dominant, but begins to shift east leading to the small to moderate ridge/valley temperature split. This pattern will favor fog formation again, but this should be confined to the climatologically favored spots for fog such as the deeper and more sheltered valleys near the larger creeks, streams and area rivers. The airmass will begin to moderate on Tuesday as the surface high moves east. 850 mb temps are expected to be about 3 degrees C warmer than today so highs should return to closer to normal with mid 80s for highs common outside of the high terrain. However, the break from the heat and humidity that has been prevalent this month will continue as afternoon dewpoints should be in the upper 50s to around 60. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 The weather will be mostly dry throughout the extended period as mid and upper level ridging takes hold of the southeastern US. At the surface, high pressure will slide off to the east Tuesday afternoon, with return flow bringing slightly warmer and more humid air back into the region. This will allow for some isolated showers to return to the forecast during the second part of the work week. A shortwave is expected to push through the Ohio Valley late Wednesday into Thursday with the best forcing grazing our northwest counties. As this feature departs Thursday afternoon, a cold front will spill south and wash out as it tries to move across the forecast area. What is left of the boundary would be over the area on Friday, leading to a few isolated showers or storms. High pressure will be reinforced over Kentucky into the upcoming weekend, with a return to dry and mild conditions. Temperatures will average a couple degrees warmer than climatology in the afternoons, with mild overnight lows around 70 degrees.&& && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will move across the Ohio Valley Region through the period. The vast majority of this time, VFR will prevail, with two exceptions. Initially, fog and or low stratus should lift and dissipate through about 13Z with LOZ the affected TAF site. Fog should again develop tonight and mainly affect the non TAF locations. Some MVFR was forecast between 6Z and 12Z at KSME. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS/JVM AVIATION...JP

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