Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250344 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BESIDES SOME SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU SKIRTING BY IN THE NORTH...AS WELL AS THE LAST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS EXITING FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THANKS TO THE CLEARING...VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S IN SPOTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE DROP OFF...HOWEVER HAVE LOWERED THE COOLER VALLEYS TO AROUND 27 DEGREES GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRETTY DEFINED BACK EDGE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND THE LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT ONCE THESE EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE TO FOLLOW THE EXITING WAVE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT THE LOWS AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK IN PLACE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY DECOUPLE AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST. CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU EVENING. FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK. FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 MVFR STRATOCU DECK LOOKS TO EXIT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE THREATENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS 00Z MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS...WILL GENERALLY BACK TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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