Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161750 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 130 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 Did a quick update to touch up sky cover through the rest of the afternoon. Also added in the latest obs and trends into the near term T and Td grids. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1105 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 16z sfc analysis shows a moderately strong area of high pressure over eastern Kentucky. This has helped to clear out the morning fog as well as clear the low and mid level clouds. Temperatures are responding to the sunshine to rebound into the lower 70s most places - lagging by a few degrees where the fog lingered. Dewpoints, meanwhile are in the the mid 60s for most along with light winds. Look for some cu development this afternoon as the high pressure is not too strong at suppressing the cloud development. In fact, cannot completely rule out a rogue shower later this afternoon over the Cumberland Valley but the chances are well below 14 percent - so will be left out the forecast. Did update the grids mainly to clear out the fog, adjust the sky cover, and to add in the latest obs/trends for the T and Td grids. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. Also, an updated HWO and ZFP have been issued. UPDATE Issued at 806 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 The fog has stayed more confined to the river valleys this morning. As such, have cancelled the advisory and dropped back to a Special Weather Statement. Some higher based cumulus has also developed across portions of the area, helping to keep the lower visibilities from becoming too widespread. Freshened up the hourly temperature and dew points through the morning. Updates will be out shortly.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 Surface high pressure remains anchored from New England down into the central and southern Appalachians, as well as portions of the Ohio Valley. Aloft, troughing rules out across the West, with ridging in the East. Another foggy night is on tap for eastern Kentucky in the valleys, given the combination of clear skies, calm winds, and lingering low level moisture. Warm and dry weather can be expected across the area through the weekend, with mainly valley fog tonight once again, and some afternoon cumulus during the day. Winds will remain light. Highs will be in the lower 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 Models are in good agreement through the extended, the exception being Dy4 through Dy5 where some small differences show up with shortwave energy passing through the Ohio Valley. In general, models depict a mean mid-level ridge over the lower Ohio Valley through the period. This mean ridge breaks down temporarily as a result of Jose as it rides up the Atlantic coast. This allows some weak shortwave energy to pass through the Ohio Valley sometime from late Tuesday through Wednesday. Strong ridging then builds back in across the region to close out the extended. Sensible weather remains generally uneventful, warm, and dry through the extended. Short wave disturbances will bring a low threat of rain to portions of the area between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. There should be enough surface based instability to allow for the mention of thunder Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and early evening Wednesday. Overall afternoons will be warm with more sun than not. High temperatures will average about 5 degrees above normal. Included only small terrain based temperature adjustments each night for our typical ridge valley splits. Conditions remain favorable for at least some patchy fog each night. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon though with some scattered cumulus at generally around 5-6k feet agl before diminishing this evening. Again, at least MVFR/IFR fog can be expected in the valleys developing between 06 and 12z and these may impact the SME, LOZ, and SJS TAF sites. Have set up some late night tempos for this possibility. The fog clears out quickly Sunday morning with more VFR conditions expected along with some fair weather afternoon cu. Winds will average less than 5 kts throughout the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/GREIF

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