Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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254 FXUS63 KJKL 221055 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 655 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 630 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Did a quick touch up on the grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over New England keeping the weather over Kentucky quite quiet. Clear skies and light winds have allowed for another night of solid radiational cooling setting the stage for a decent ridge to valley temperature split through the night. Currently readings vary from the upper 50s in the deep valleys to the middle 60s on the ridgetops while dewpoints are running in the mid and upper 50s. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a Mid Mississippi Valley ridge building through the rest of the work week as the southeast trough starts to fill. All mid level energy for this time period stays well north of Kentucky keeping the weather quiet here. Due to the good model agreement have favored a general blend with reliance on persistence and the higher resolution near term guidance for weather details. Sensible weather will feature a warm and dry start to the fall season continuing right on into the weekend. Expect similar conditions each day and night through at least Friday with a slight uptick in temperatures the only notable change. Mostly clear/sunny skies will continue to be the rule allowing for a healthy diurnal range as well as patchy fog - locally dense in the river valleys - late at night and through the morning commute. Will continue to highlight this concern in the HWO. Used the CONSShort/ShortBlend as a starting point for most grids through the first part of tonight followed by the SuperBlend into and during Friday. Did make some adjustments to the temperatures to expand the diurnal range - warmer during the day and cooler at night - through the period while also enhancing the ridge to valley split in the grids. As for PoPs, basically zeroed them out - in line with all MOS guidance. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 A strong ridge will stay in place across the region through Monday, keeping the well above normal temperatures and dry weather in place. Beyond Monday, models remain all over the place as they are having a tough time resolving how a southern and northern stream wave interact early next week. The 12z version of the ECMWF showed more phasing with this wave, along with the 00z version of the GFS. Thus, things were looking like they were coming together. Now the 00z ECMWF has come in, and keeps the two waves completely separate with 2 distinct cut off lows developing (one north of the great lakes and another one in the southwest CONUS). With the phased northern/southern stream wave, the cold front was slower, likely not reaching the area until Wednesday. However, with the less phasing scenario, the boundary would come southeast a bit faster (late Monday night/Tuesday, but would also be weaker. With vastly different scenarios with the evolution next week, opting to just include a slight chance of showers/storms from Tuesday through the end of the period. Given the continuation of the dry airmass through Monday, opting to go higher than guidance by a few degrees on highs and slightly cooler on the lows. By Monday night, opting to stay close to guidance with the all the uncertainty. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 High pressure centered across New England will continue to provide VFR conditions across eastern Kentucky. However, IFR, or worse, fog will likely be found in the river valleys over the next couple of hours and again late tonight, but not expand too far from these locations. As such, will not include any visibility restrictions at the TAF sites. Winds will continue to average 5 kts or less, mainly out of the east and northeast, through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.