Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300744 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL SEEING AN AREA OF WEAKENING LIGHT ECHOS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HRRR STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD POP UP HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO STILL SEEING AN OCCASIONAL POP UP HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE REGIONAL MOSAIC. THEREFORE SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP A SLIGHT POP THROUGH DAWN. GRIDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 COLD POOL HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE IN GENERAL AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS ARE HANGING ON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL WEAKEN BEFORE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN MOST LOCATIONS. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES AND GRIDS AT THAT TIME. FOG WILL ALSO NEED TO BE BEEFED UP...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY THINNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GOING LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SHEARED OUT COOL FRONT DANGLED SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED CELLS MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS NORTH OF I-64...SO THINK THAT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR AREA IS LOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS THAT MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND THE SHORT WAVE EXITS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT AS LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY GET ON THE STRONG-SIDE...WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SOME MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDGING ENSUES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND ONCE AGAIN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING OUT THURSDAY WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY DAMPENING. THIS PULL OF NORTHERLY AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING ENHANCED AREAS OF LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN SOME MCS POTENTIAL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DAMPEN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT WILL KEEP A WEAK NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM TO IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS KENTUCKY TO END OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER...FOR THIS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK SYSTEM...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT. AS FOR SENSIBLE CONDITIONS...THE NW FLOW AND SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SPARKS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT REMAIN OVERALL RATHER STATIONARY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS LOCALIZED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND GENERALLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND TN. THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND MCS POTENTIAL WILL LIE. BY FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THE LOCAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALIGN ITSELF ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS TIME AROUND...EXPECT BEST MOISTURE /RAIN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL/ TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BUT PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF THE ECMWF MODEL HOLDS TRUE...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SE ACROSS CANADA WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND THE EXACT FRONTAL LOCATION IS STILL QUITE LOW HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/. STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...WHICH LED TO JUST A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER STRONG DOSE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /PWATS 2 INCHES AN ABOVE/...AND POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS40.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ISOLD POP UP RAIN SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH DAWN. MAIN CHALLENGE IS FOG. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS...ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SME LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE AND THEREFORE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR GENERAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED CONVECTION THREATENS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY

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