Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 102055 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 355 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO OUR EXTENDED TIME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ABOVE THE COLD SFC TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LED TO SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGERED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FROM JKL ON EAST. THE SNOW ADVISORIES WERE KEPT IN PLACE THROUGH 6 PM IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WHILE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE...ON PACE TO SET A RECORD FOR A MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE HERE AT JKL. MEANWHILE... DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS AS WINDS CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ADDING TO THE CHILL. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE NORTHEAST TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH AND RETREATS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE KENTUCKY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK BATCH OF ENERGY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND COMING TO AN END INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR A CHILLY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BY DAWN WITH ONLY A LIMITED DIFFERENCE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES. SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING ON THURSDAY BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BY DAWN FRIDAY. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SOME TERRAIN/SNOW DEPTH DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD. BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY FROM JKL EAST. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS WILL BRING VIS TO LIFR AND ALONG WITH IFR CIGS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MORE INFREQUENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY 00Z. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH ANY MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS BREAKING UP TOWARDS DAWN. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087- 088-104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...GREIF

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