Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301911 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 311 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT LOWER WITH THIS UPDATE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL KY...SOME MORE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED THE POPS HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THIS AREA PROVES TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT IN ANTICIPATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS HEADING INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TO IF THIS RAINFALL HINDERS ANY DEVELOPMENT ON INSTABILITY LATER FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR PRECIP. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WITH IT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS EXPECTED...BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES... POSING THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WX THERE. EVEN SO...SPC HAS THEIR SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TOUCHING OUR FORECAST AREA. AS WE EMERGE INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH WEAKER VERTICAL FORCING. WHILE ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE LESSENED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING COVERAGE/PROBABILITY WITH THE WEAKER FORCING. IF CONVECTION CAN FIRE...THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY STILL SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THAT WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND BASICALLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...A MUCH LARGER AND MORE WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING US PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY MAJOR ISSUES. WE WILL JUST BE IN STORE FOR A DAMP AND CLOUDY WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH PULLS COOL MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE RAINIEST PERIODS...TO AROUND 70 ON THE LESS RAINY LESS CLOUDY DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THUS...WILL HAVE CIGS AND VIS LOWERING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TAKES PLACE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE AGAINBY 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PRODUCES MORE CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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