Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201751 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 151 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017 Forecast seems to be on a pretty good track this morning. Made some minor adjustments to the sky cover based on latest trends, and also freshened up the near term grids with the latest observations. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was also sent out to remove any morning fog wording. UPDATE Issued at 748 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017 Freshened up the POPs through early this afternoon, based on some of the higher resolution model guidance. The weather should remain fairly quiet until closer to 18z, when isolated to scattered convection is expected to begin across portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 342 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017 The latest surface map features a quasi-stationary front aligned from central Missouri to near or just north of the Ohio River. This stems from low pressure centered in eastern Kansas. Aloft, an upper level low is shifting from the front range of the Rockies to the high Plains, with ridging sharping up from the Great Lakes down to the southeastern CONUS. This upper level low will gradually spiral northeast through the Plains and eventually to the south central Canadian border by late Sunday. Surface low pressure will follow suit, tracking just a bit off to the east and southeast, reaching the northern Great Lakes by the end of the period and dragging a cold front across the Commonwealth. Eastern Kentucky should see less convective coverage today, as heights recover aloft, and slightly drier air works in at the low levels. Expect the better coverage to be towards the north this afternoon, where the surface boundary will be easing north as a warm front. Highs today will rebound into the mid and upper 80s. As we head into tonight, there likely be ongoing storms off threatening to our west, but the latest CAMs suggest diminishment as they attempt to make into our area after sundown. Any convection that remains organized could potentially be on the stronger-side. During the overnight, a low level jet will bring an increase in convective coverage from the southwest after midnight, with less chances in the east. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s. A surface cold front will move through eastern Kentucky late Sunday. Forcing is not overwhelming, but there will be plenty of moisture, so some locally heavy rain/flooding will be a concern, especially across locations that have already seen heavy rainfall in the past 24 hours. Will play this up in the HWO. Plenty of clouds and precipitation will keep the highs suppressed, generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 344 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017 The period will be met with the cold front pushing east across the region and POPs slowly reducing from west to east through the night. While some lingering showers will reside in the far east early Monday, most will see clearing through by the afternoon. This as a surface high pressure builds east in the wake of the cold front. This will lead to some slight temperature splits for Monday night into Tuesday morning. After this this the models diverge on solutions, as they struggle with phasing by mid week. The issue is the divergence in the upper level evolution will have substantial implications on the surface features and sensible weather. This leads to very differing timing on cyclogenesis and overall evolution of surface boundaries and potential surface lows. Therefore, will keep several rounds of chance POPs that the blend has to offer until better model agreement can be seen. This upcoming pattern will be fairly anomalous with NAEFS Standardized anomaly tables showing 500mb heights getting close to 3 deviations below normal. Therefore, despite the differences described above the lowering heights from the amplified pattern and several rounds of precip/clouds will lead to near to below normal temperatures through the period. Matter of fact the potential exists for below normal temperatures at times over the next 6 to 10 days based on the forecast from the CPC and based on the GEFS 6-8 day CIPs analog. Now the coolest day in terms of afternoon highs will be Thursday when temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017 While generally VFR conditions are in place to start out this afternoon, some scattered MVFR cigs are starting to build across the area. As the afternoon continues, showers and thunderstorms will begin developing and impacting portions of eastern KY, especially central and northern. As such, went ahead and included VCTS at KSYM, KSJS, and KJKL for the potential that one of these isolated to scattered storms impacts the TAF site throughout the afternoon. A lull will be possible in the evening and first part of the night as the afternoon convective activity subsides. However, a cold front approaching from the west will quickly ramp up clouds and precip chances once again as we head into the morning hours Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day Sunday, with some of these storms expected to be heavy rain producers. That being said, went with predominate MVFR conditions Sunday, but expect that CIGS and especially VIS will be very variable throughout the day as storms move across the TAF sites. Winds will generally be light and variable, though any storms could produce some higher gusts today and tomorrow as well. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JMW

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