Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 160603 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 103 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 825 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP TO INCREASE POPS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THERE HAD BEEN SOME LIGHTNING JUST WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY...BUT THIS HAS DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES IN THE BIG SANDY VALLEY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH JUST CIRRUS OVERHEAD...BUT AS MID CLOUDS MOVE IN...THESE SHOULD RECOVER AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. ALSO...MODEL WINDS ALOFT SUPPORTED INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH OVERNIGHT ON TOP OF PINE AND BLACK MTNS AND IN LOG MTNS OF BELL COUNTY AND THE FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 303 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 A WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AN OCCLUDING FRONT WILL WORK ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. AT THE MOMENT SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR...THEY MAY START TO FALL APART AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY HELP SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...GOING TO STICK WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY HOLD ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DAY OUT...LEAVING BEHIND SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS. NOT QUITE SURE WE WILL SEE MUCH RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT BETTER MOISTURE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SO PLAN TO GO WITH SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS STILL TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ALL OUT RAIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE PRESENTLY...WENT WITH A QUICK DROP OFF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. ON TUESDAY...OUR HIGHS MAY OCCUR EARLY...AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 30S...WITH RIDGES ABOVE 3000 FEET FALLING BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE REMAINING...WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NW FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE PART OF THE STATE. ANY DRIZZLE WILL END AND CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER COULD BE SHORT-LIVED. MOISTURE OFF THE GULF WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GET CAUGHT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. 12Z MODEL BLEND SUGGESTS LOW POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MARGINAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND HAVE INCLUDED BOTH. ONCE THE THURSDAY SYSTEM LEAVES...THERE IS ANOTHER BREAK FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT ONE HAS TO BE DEALT WITH. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM HEADS EAST...ITS EVENTUAL EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE OUR WEEKEND WEATHER. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT COME TO A GOOD CONSENSUS ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THE LATEST TREND IN THE 12Z RUNS IS FOR A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER PRECIP IN OUR AREA. CONSIDERING HOW POORLY THEY HAVE BEEN HANDLING IT SO FAR...IT WOULD BE GOOD TO SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER FULL SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE WHOLE-HEARTEDLY JUMPING ON THAT BANDWAGON. HAVE MADE A MODEST DRAWBACK ON POPS...WHILE MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SNOW AND RAIN. GREATEST POPS ARE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 102 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 A COMBINATION WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KY...WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING A SW TO NE PASS ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND THE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS A RESULT OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE REALLY PICKING UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUING TO GUST INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO MVFR...AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE FUEL ALTERNATE CATEGORY BY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE SHOWERS TAPER OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE IDEA FOR DRIZZLE HANGING AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW

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