Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260605 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL IN LINE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST NUMBERS. THE ONE CHANGE THAT WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BOARD BY 10 PERCENT THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DIED OUT OVER MISSOURI EARLIER THIS EVENING AREA BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE FORECAST WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. THEREFORE...THE SKY COVER GRIDS WERE BEEFED UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS CHANGE...HOWEVER...WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPDATING THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...SO THAT PRODUCT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT AND DENSE FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST AND CONFINED MAINLY TO VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE OUR WEATHER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL TO OUR WEST OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND HELP KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL EASE UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE REAMPLIFYING AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BOOST TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEW POINTS WILL STAY BEARABLE DURING THE DAY...BUT BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD 70 SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM LATE IN THE DAY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPPING INTO THE AREA. STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AREAS NORTH OF JKL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 446 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL ENTER KY FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PROVIDE FUEL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM SATURDAY NIGHT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE ITS SEVERE WX TO OUR N AND NW...BUT ITS REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE EVOLUTION OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ALLOW RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS STILL NOT HIGH. SHOULD THINGS GO AS MODELS SUGGEST...HIGH INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SPEED SHEAR WOULD RESULT IN SEVERE WX DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NEED TO MIX AWAY INTO THE NEW AIR MASS MOVING IN ON MONDAY. WITH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURRING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN...THE RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL STILL PRESENT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST...WITH ITS AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COOL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS...BY SUMMERTIME STANDARDS...WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE. WE SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOWS AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE DROPPING INTO IT...LEADING TO AN UPPER LOW STARTING TO CLOSE OFF AND RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. THIS PUTS US BACK INTO A SYNOPTIC POSITION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST TO END THE PERIOD...DESPITE ONLY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A MASS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION...REMAINING SCT TO BKN IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH KLOZ IS SEEING SOME LIGHT BR AT THE MOMENT...EXPECT THIS INCOMING CLOUD COVER TO HAMPER ANY FURTHER BR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN AND LOWER SLIGHTLY BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE WSW.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW

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