Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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558 FXUS63 KJKL 180600 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 130 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 Updated the forecast to time the front and its best convection chances across the CWA through dawn based on the current radar, trends, and HRRR guidance. Also touched up the T/Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1055 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across eastern Kentucky overnight. The rain will gradually taper off through out Friday morning and should be out of the area by early Friday afternoon. The forecast has been updated to reflect the latest evolution of the ongoing storms. The overall trend has been for a slightly faster eastward progression of the current shower and storm activity, so the forecast was updated to reflect this. UPDATE Issued at 747 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 The forecast is on track for the most part so far this evening. The model consensus in general is suggesting that ongoing showers and storms will continue moving eastward, and will eventually move across eastern Kentucky. There are some differences amongst the models as to the exact timing and coverage of convection this evening and tonight, but the inherited forecast is handling the current evolution of ongoing showers and storms well enough to warrant not an update at this time. Will need to issue and update later in the shift, however, to at least remove any outdated evening wording.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 438 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 A rather strong storm system near the upper Great Lakes was bringing a flow of warm and humid air to the area ahead of a cold front today. An upper level wave was also approaching from the west. This has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The most significant area of showers and thunderstorms was over southern OH and northern KY late this afternoon. Other storms tailed southwestward int western KY. The most significant winds aloft were also located to our north, and that is where the greatest threat of severe weather is. Models suggest that the precip developing over northwest and western KY will progress into our area tonight, but be on the decline as it moves through late tonight. The actual cold frontal passage and change in air mass is not expected until Friday, and additional showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out ahead of the front on Friday, especially in southeast KY where the front will arrive the latest. Friday night the entire area should be dry as surface ridging builds in from the west. The drier air mass should also allow for somewhat cooler lows. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 343 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 The period will begin with the upper level trough axis swinging across the Ohio Valley on Saturday. After this heights rise and pattern flattens through Tuesday before another trough digs into the eastern US to round out the period. The models are in decent overall agreement upper level wise through the long term period. This initial trough will bring a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to the far north Saturday afternoon. Then a break will come for late Saturday into early Monday. There remains some question on what will develop for Monday and right now there is only a small chance of showers and thunderstorms north of the Mountain Parkway in the afternoon. However, this is really only showing in one model solution and therefore confidence remains low. Then the next trough will approach by Tuesday and bring best chances of showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This trough will swing east and push a cold front through the region, with chances lessening through the day on Thursday. That said, there is some disagreement on how much the front pushes through in the guidance and this could lead to changes in the timing and coverage on Thursday. Temperature through the period will remain near to above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 Small clusters of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are pushing deeper into the CWA and will start affecting the other TAF sites over the next couple of hours continuing through dawn - similar to what KSYM is seeing currently. Could have some IFR conditions, mainly from VIS during this time. After 10Z the showers and storms will taper off west to east into the hours just before and after sunup today. Some patchy fog will be possible at the TAF sites as the rain starts to clear up heading toward 12z but will leave that out for now and cover the visby limitations with the prevailing showers and VCTS during that timeframe. Winds, outside of any storm, will be light and variable through mid morning before picking up from the west at 5 to 10 kts post fropa.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF

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