Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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115 FXUS63 KJKL 232341 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 741 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Forecast seems to be in good shape so far this evening. Updated to make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts reflected the ongoing conditions in the near term. Also ended up lowering wind gusts overnight, as there has been a model high bias and the ongoing forecast was unrealistic compared to current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. Changes were minor enough that no new forecast package will be needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the south starting to yield to an inbound dry cold front to the northwest. This front`s approach is responsible for the tightening pressure gradient helping, along with good mixing under sunny conditions, to keep the winds going from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph, or so, with occasional gusts around 25 mph. These breezes, again along with the full sunshine, support temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are running in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all show Kentucky in the midst of fairly fast northwest flow between a deep trough to the northeast and rather flat ridging west. A weak trough will pass by to the north tonight into Monday morning but its energy stays well off to the northeast to have any real affect on our weather. Given the good agreement have favored a general blend with emphasis on the higher resolution guidance from the HRRR and NAM12, along with some deference to the COOP MOS guidance - especially Monday night. Sensible weather will feature a bit milder of a night as the winds stay up better and the front limits the strength of the inversion. Will allow for some river valley fog near dawn as we have had the past couple of mornings. Another pleasant day is expected on Monday with mostly sunny skies, breezy winds switching to the northwest post fropa, and afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Drier and cooler air moves in Monday night with a better potential for frost in the valleys early Tuesday morning. Have added that to the grids along with a mention in the HWO. Again used the CONSShort/ShortBlend as the starting point for the bulk of the grids with adjustments to the night-time temps for terrain as well as knocking dewpoints down in the afternoon a tad. PoPs were zeroed out through the period - in line with all guidance. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 345 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 The models are in good agreement through the work week then diverge in their solutions. At the start of the period, heights will rise as high pressure scoots into the area from the south. This high pressure will be over the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, allowing lower dew points to mix down. This will lead to the best chance of the period for some patchy frost Wednesday morning. Winds shift to the southwest ahead of a shortwave trough passage, allowing for warmer and moist air to infiltrate the region Wednesday afternoon. A cold front is then expected to swing through East Kentucky by Thursday evening with a chance for some showers throughout the day. High pressure shifts into the area Thursday night but quickly exits by Friday evening. Beyond Friday, the forecast is a bit up in the air as model solutions diverge. So have decided to remain close to the CR Superblend solution beyond Friday, with minor changes made to the temperatures to account for night- time inversions. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable through the period with afternoon highs in the 60s and low 70s. Morning lows will start out near freezing in the valleys on Wednesday morning, with all temps moderating into the 40s/low 50s through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds have settled down this evening to generally less than 10 knots. A few gusts continue at KSYM and may continue for the next couple of hours. Still expecting a dry cold front to cross through the region from the NW through the overnight. This will keep many locations from seeing light and variable winds overnight, despite clear conditions. Winds will shift from SW this evening ahead of the cold front to NW by tomorrow morning just after the frontal passage. Some gusts above 10 knots may be possible during the afternoon once more. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JMW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.