Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211409 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA. LOWERED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS 925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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