Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 212000 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 19z SFC shows low pressure east of Kentucky but still swinging showers and stray thunderstorms through the CWA. The latest visible satellite loop shows mostly cloudy skies with only a few breaks across the area. The clouds and isolated to scattered showers also affected temperatures today with readings generally kept in the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. Meanwhile, dewpoints are holding in the mid to upper 50s most places. Winds through East Kentucky are generally from the west at 5 to 10 mph with some gusts to 15 mph or so in western areas. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the eastern trough deepening and settling southeast of the area by Monday morning. A key part of this development will be a mid level wave dropping just west of the CWA tonight sending energy south through East Kentucky. This will help to sharpen up the low and drag it a tad southwest on Sunday. This upper low will further deepen and close off Sunday night into early Monday as it shifts east. This represents a return to an idea from a couple of days ago but with more credence now given the good model clustering and zero hour being only 36 to 48 hours out. Accordingly, have followed a general model blend with a strong lean toward the HRRR and NAM12 for weather details through Monday morning. Sensible weather will feature an unsettled evening with showers and a couple of thunderstorms around. This will be followed by low clouds and some patchy fog through the night. While Sunday will be drier for most, as the upper low shifts southwest, there is a decent shot at more convection in the east and even a few thunderstorms. Sunday night will see the clouds start to break up in the east and again some fog, especially for the valleys and places that clear earlier in the night. Do expect temperatures to be fairly uniform tonight and Sunday night owing to the clouds and some slight CAA to neutral advection during the nights. Started with the ShortBlend for most elements of the forecast with only limited terrain adjustments to temperatures through the period. During the latter part of the forecast the SuperBlend was used to initialize the forecast with some tweaks made mainly to increase the PoPs in the east Sunday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 350 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Patchy valley fog will kick off the week with surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Shortwave, but amplified, upper riding will build across the Great Lakes through the Mississippi Valley in wake of this weekend`s disturbance digging across the Mid-Atlantic coast. Rising heights and deep layer subsidence will bring clearing skies from west to east throughout the day as temperatures warm back to near normal, topping out generally in the mid 70s. Surface ridging will then be in control once again Monday night into Tuesday, leading to another ridge/valley temperature split ranging from the mid-upper 40s in valleys and low 50s on ridgetops. Continued increasing heights and plenty of solar insolation will propel highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday afternoon. An unsettled pattern will then return for midweek through the end of the week and likely into the upcoming weekend. Flow aloft will back southwesterly in response to cyclonic flow developing from central Canada through the Intermountain West. Subsequent increasing warmth and moisture will lead to a more favorable thermodynamic environment supportive of convective development. While the thermodynamics should be conducive for showers and thunderstorms, dynamical prospects may be lacking as the core of any upper forcing may lift north well west of the Commonwealth. This will in turn keep a nearly stationary frontal boundary west of the region through much if not all of the upcoming week, furthermore decreasing the chances for seeing any appreciable forcing locally. Nonetheless, scattered thunderstorms certainly look possible in the warm sector whenever forcing becomes realized, rather from passing upper perturbations or at least along the higher terrain. High temperatures in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s look likely by midweek into the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A center of low pressure is sitting just NE of the state and as this shifts slowly eastward this afternoon, wrap around moisture will pull showers and even some isolated thunder back into eastern KY into the evening. Cigs will vary between MVFR and times of VFR this afternoon but scattered showers will be around the FA during with lower vis and cigs possible should they go over any TAF site. Tonight, the low will continue to depart eastward, and drier air will begin filtering into the region. However, forecast soundings time heights suggest llvl moisture lingering across many of the northeast TAF sites during the overnight, likely resulting in lingering low clouds and fog development with lower VIS a potential overnight. The TAFs reflect this idea, though confidence is on the low side for any individual site`s forecast into Sunday morning. Skies should clear out more completely on Sunday, from southwest to northeast, with VFR conditions expected, except perhaps SJS where low clouds and the threat of a shower may linger. Winds will be from the west through the rest of the afternoon at 5 to 10 kts with occasional gusts to 15 kts, then light and variable this evening into Sunday morning. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.