Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251732 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 132 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO FORM ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-75 AS ANTICIPATED. THUS...NO PLANNED UPDATES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE EITHER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 UPDATED TO REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AT BEST...AND PROBABLY GOING TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE UPDRAFTS CANNOT SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THUS...GOING TO GO WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-75 TODAY. ALSO REMOVED THE MORNING FOG. UPDATED HIGHS TO REFLECT TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS A MASS OF CLOUDS ADVECTS INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ELSEWHERE. STILL CARRYING PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THOUGH SO FAR THIS MORNING IT HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR DIURNAL CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN CONCENTRATION REMAINING ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE REGION CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO OUR SW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIRES MODELS GUIDANCE...STILL POINTING AT AFTERNOON PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE SW COUNTIES AND ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY...WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES. WILL KEEP WITH ONGOING POPS AT THIS TIME. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS TO MAKE SURE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 FINALLY...A MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL FROM THE EAST AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...BUT THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND THE SW COUNTIES IN THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE PINPOINT FOR DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...KEPT POPS AT THE LOW END OF SLIGHT...AND ONLY OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY. THOUGH MODELS DO SEEM TO ALL AGREE ON QPF OCCURRING...AS WELL AS AGREEING ON THE GENERAL LOCATION ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TN...THIS MAY BE YET ANOTHER DAY WHERE GOOD AGREEMENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN EVENTS WILL TRANSPIRE. HOWEVER...WOULD RATHER INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END POPS IN CASE SOMETHING IS TO DEVELOP...RATHER THAN HAVE A SHOWER OR STORM POP UP WITH NO COVERAGE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH ONLY SOME SCT VFR CU EXPECTED. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES THE OPPORTUNITY TO RADIATIONALLY COOL DOWN TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION /GENERALLY/...SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ONCE MORE TOMORROW WITH CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PARK ITSELF WELL TO OUR NW...EXTENDING FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY AND POSE LITTLE THREAT TO EASTERN KY OTHER THAN TO KEEP THE WARMER AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ONCE MORE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS TO BE QUITE GORGEOUS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER AIR. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM OLD MEXICO TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE...ALL THE FRONTS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BY THURSDAY MORNING...A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL VERY MUCH IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO SLIP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH IS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY...HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS HANDLED THAT COULD HAVE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF RAPIDLY THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE FORECAST...TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONTS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...KAS

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