Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 172347 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 747 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 747 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 The forecast is on track for the most part so far this evening. The model consensus in general is suggesting that ongoing showers and storms will continue moving eastward, and will eventually move across eastern Kentucky. There are some differences amongst the models as to the exact timing and coverage of convection this evening and tonight, but the inherited forecast is handling the current evolution of ongoing showers and storms well enough to warrant not an update at this time. Will need to issue and update later in the shift, however, to at least remove any outdated evening wording.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 438 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 A rather strong storm system near the upper Great Lakes was bringing a flow of warm and humid air to the area ahead of a cold front today. An upper level wave was also approaching from the west. This has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The most significant area of showers and thunderstorms was over southern OH and northern KY late this afternoon. Other storms tailed southwestward int western KY. The most significant winds aloft were also located to our north, and that is where the greatest threat of severe weather is. Models suggest that the precip developing over northwest and western KY will progress into our area tonight, but be on the decline as it moves through late tonight. The actual cold frontal passage and change in air mass is not expected until Friday, and additional showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out ahead of the front on Friday, especially in southeast KY where the front will arrive the latest. Friday night the entire area should be dry as surface ridging builds in from the west. The drier air mass should also allow for somewhat cooler lows. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 343 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 The period will begin with the upper level trough axis swinging across the Ohio Valley on Saturday. After this heights rise and pattern flattens through Tuesday before another trough digs into the eastern US to round out the period. The models are in decent overall agreement upper level wise through the long term period. This initial trough will bring a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to the far north Saturday afternoon. Then a break will come for late Saturday into early Monday. There remains some question on what will develop for Monday and right now there is only a small chance of showers and thunderstorms north of the Mountain Parkway in the afternoon. However, this is really only showing in one model solution and therefore confidence remains low. Then the next trough will approach by Tuesday and bring best chances of showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This trough will swing east and push a cold front through the region, with chances lessening through the day on Thursday. That said, there is some disagreement on how much the front pushes through in the guidance and this could lead to changes in the timing and coverage on Thursday. Temperature through the period will remain near to above average for this time of year.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 The TAF period should start off fairly quiet with only FEW to SCT clouds moving across the area. The clouds will be on the increase between 1 and 3Z, however, as lines and clusters of showers and thunderstorms approach from the west. The various forecast models are all handling the evolution of the showers and storms differently, but the general consensus is that SYM and SME will see showers and storms first between 4 and 5Z, followed by LOZ, JKL, and SJS between 6 and 7Z. This activity should taper off steadily overnight due to loss of heating. The most active period for rain tonight should between 4 and 10Z. After 10Z the showers and storms will taper off through out the morning on Friday, and should be out of the by early Friday afternoon. A few of the storms this evening could produce isolated strong wind gusts, especially at SYM. MVFR or worse conditions will be possible with any thunderstorm. Fog is also expected later tonight into early tomorrow morning, and could produce MVFR to IFR conditions, especially between 9 and 11Z Friday.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...AR

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