Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271428 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1028 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED NDFD HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 SOME PESKY CU HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE LOW TEMPS. SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S SO BUMPED THE LOWS DOWN 1-2 DEGREES...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EWD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE FOLLOWING SUITE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LL RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN USHERING IN 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND WARMER TEMPS...MAKING THINGS FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN ONLY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE...HELPING TO PIVOT THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. IN THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CONTEND WITH ALONG THE GULF STATES. THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE EAST. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE...WHILE WEAKER IN THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE DECISIVE RIDGING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...WHILE STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE...KEEPING MORE TROUGHINESS IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INITIALLY...BEFORE THEN DEPICTING SOME INFLUENCE FROM ERIKA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR NEXT WEEK...A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OCCURRING ON SUNDAY...WHEN MORE FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE LIFTING OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN...BESIDES SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU IN THE 4-6K FEET AGL RANGE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE DAY. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...BUT SHOULD STEER CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH PERIOD AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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