Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 182355 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 655 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 655 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD SO FAR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE CONSISTENTLY REPORTING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS. IF WINDS GO CALM AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WE COULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO DETERMINE IF AN UPDATE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS WARRANTED LATER IN THE SHIFT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ALSO APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS OF MID AFTERNOON. UNDER THE RIDGING WITH AFTERNOON MIXING...DEW POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AND LINGERING STRATOCU AND CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND OR PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLDER NIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN VALLEYS IN THE CWA THAT REMAINED WARMER LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS WELL THAT SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS TO 10 DEGREES OR HIGHER THOUGH A STRAY 8 OR 9 DEGREE READING IN SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IS POSSIBLE. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SFC LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WED AND INTO ONTARIO ON WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TRIALING COLD FRONT FROM THE CLIPPER WILL BRING WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AT TIMES...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. MAX T WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 15 DEGREES...AND THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED NIGHT AND BRING LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF TH AREA. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...SPITTING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO DRY...BUT THE SREF HAS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WHICH SEEMS OVERDONE. THE MOISTURE AS NOTED WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DEEP AND ALTHOUGH ICE IN THE CLOUDS SEEMS LIKELY...ANY SNOW FALLING SHOULD NOT BE IN THE FORM OF DENDRITES. AT LEAST FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT SEEM PROBABLE...BUT MEASURABLE LIQUID CHANCES ARE LOW. THIS EVENT COULD PUT DOWN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WITH AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING TO HALF OF AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...A BIT ABOVE THE SUPERBLEND AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS IN ISC. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN TONIGHT...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 OR ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 457 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST... BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR NW COUNTIES. IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID TO FALL...BUT SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE NEAR FREEZING AROUND DAWN SATURDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. DURING THE WEEKEND MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FLOW NORTH AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TX ON SATURDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT HEADS NE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOWNSLOPE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY. THIS WOULD LIMIT OUR DESTABILIZATION...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRYING INFLUENCE AND RESULT IN RAIN. THE LOW AND ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT OUT INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW DOES NOT ARRIVE HERE UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER LARGE VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS TOWARD US IN A LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENT. EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WE WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT WITH POOR CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT AT LONG RANGE. THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP A POP IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 655 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY TOMORROW...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 10KTS SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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