Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181411 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1011 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1011 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017 Radar shows very isolated showers across the central and southern part of the forecast area. Latest short range guidance indicates coverage should be isolated at best for the remainder of the day. This was well handled in the ongoing forecast, so have only needed to make some minor adjustments, mainly for the areas being affected and expected to be affected by the isolated showers this morning. Have also kept out mention of thunder until this afternoon. NDFD has been updated with latest modifications. UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017 The forecast is on track so far this morning. A few rain showers have been showing up on radar in southern Ohio and portions of central Tennessee this morning. This trend should continue with eastern Kentucky seeing isolated showers and storms forming across the area early this morning. This activity should persist through the day before ending around sunset. With no good trigger in place, the showers and storms should not be able to become more than isolated in coverage. A second round of rain is expected to begin moving into the area from the northwest overnight, as a weather system approaches from the Plains. Ingested the latest obs into the forecast grids to establish new trends this morning. No major changes to the forecast were necessary.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 309 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017 The latest model data is now suggesting that some isolated showers and storms may form early across the area early this morning, and gradually spread northward as the sun rises and instability increases a bit. The current solutions are showing enough low level moisture, weak lift, and instability to support the aforementioned activity, so the new forecast will reflect that. The new forecast will show isolated showers and storms moving across the TN border and into our southwest counties between 12 and 15Z this morning, with the convection spreading to the north and east through out the day. More showers and storms will also form further to the northwest, as a weather system moves out of the northern Plains and across the upper Mississippi valley and across the Ohio Valley region late tonight and during the day on Friday. Precipitation chances will increase accordingly, as the weather system gets closer to the area, and we should see 40 to 50 percent coverage of showers and storms across the area by Friday afternoon. Temperatures in the short will continue to run well above normal, with daily highs in the 80s both today and Friday. Overnight lows will be quite warm as well, with minimum readings in the mid to upper 60s expected. Winds will gradually strengthen through out the day today as well, as the pressure gradient across the region tightens up a bit. We should see winds out of the southwest increasing from around 5 mph early this morning to 10 to 15 mph by this afternoon with occasional gusts possible. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 423 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017 The models are in good agreement with an overall dynamic long wave pattern to rule across the CONUS through the long term portion of the forecast. A persistent ridge across the southeastern CONUS will be in the process of breaking down by the start of the weekend, as an upper level low/trough axis moves from the central Plains into the western Great Lakes region. A short wave trough moving southeast out of south central Canada will then help reinforce a deeper trough across the eastern half of the nation, with another potential upper level low emerging near the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by the middle of next week. Surface features and timing are in decent agreement through the end of the week, but then breakdown into the early and middle of next week. Eastern Kentucky will see increasing moisture out ahead of the trough to our west and associated cold front. POPs Friday night and Saturday will be more diurnally influenced, but as the boundary approaches late Saturday night, chances will increase even during the overnight period. Best overall POPs continue to be Sunday afternoon/evening as the cold front marches east across the region, leading to widespread convection. The front will exit early Monday morning, with a few showers lingering in the east. A brief reprieve from the wet weather will set in from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, before additional height falls move in for Tuesday afternoon, and another cold frontal passage set to move in for Wednesday. Again, confidence is lower this far out, so have maintained a more generalized POP regime. Did introduce some slight chances of thunder for Wednesday, with some steep low level lapse rates in place. Above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week, before dropping back to slightly below normal readings for next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017 VFR conditions should persist at the TAF sites through out the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form and move across the forecast area today and again from late tonight through Friday. At this time it does not appear that the showers and storms that we experience today will become widespread enough to warrant mention in the TAFs at this time. Some low level wind shear will persist through 13 or 14Z this morning. Southwest winds will increase to around 10KTs by late this morning. Gusts to around 20KTs will be possible at times, especially this afternoon and early this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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