Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 100641 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 241 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWER A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. INITIALLY HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM...HOWEVER MAY MAKE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE WHEN THE NEW ECMWF COMES IN AFTER 3 AM. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS THAT HAS BEEN BIAS AND ELEVATION ADJUSTED. ONCE THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NORMAL VALLEY FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS...LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ON TAP. WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...AND COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO POP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WOULD BE VERY SPORADIC WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY SINCE MOST OF THE BETTER FORCING WILL STAY NORTH. A BETTER LOOKING SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THIS WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. A POTENT VORT MAX WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AGAIN WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND IF IT STALLS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND WASHES OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED ALREADY...SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG FORM IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF JACKSON. THE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WAS ONLY ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. NORMALLY...IN THIS SCENARIO...THE STATIONS WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SEEING SOME VALLY FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z. STATIONS LIKE JKL...WILL NOT SEE FOG FORM OVERHEARD...HOWEVER SOME MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS BELOW AND THE LIFT AS THE HEATING STARTS UP. THIS LIFTED FOG THEN MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELD. IT IS MORE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE ASOS THAN THE RUNWAY. SME AND SJS HAD MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...SO MADE THE CONDITIONS WORSE THERE. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JJ

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