Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 150003 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 703 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 703 PM EST WED FEB 14 2018 WSR-88D shows rain showers spreading across eastern Kentucky this evening. Some of these showers have had a history in producing lightning and the mesoanalysis has shown a hint of MUCAPE across the area. Given this did opt to keep thunder going through the evening. Overall just some minor edits needed to the grids at update time.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 220 PM EST WED FEB 14 2018 Lightning is being detected with the convection occurring north of the forecast area across far northern KY and southern Ohio. There has not been any recent lightning with the showers in western KY, but as these showers move east into our area it is still possible a few rumbles of thunder will be heard late this afternoon. Will leave a very low probability of lighting for showers late this afternoon. A subtle short wave in the zonal flow will move across the area this evening, with our best chance for showers from late afternoon through midnight. Rainfall amounts from this afternoon through 1 AM Thursday should generally be close to 0.30 inches with some isolated 0.5 inch amounts possible. This will not be enough rainfall to cause any new flooding issues. On Thursday the focus for rain will shift well north of the forecast area with low level convergence focused on a front over OH and IN. In our area we`ll still continue with shower chances for Thursday but it should be mainly dry for most of the day. For Thursday our area will be well south of the front and it will be quite warm with record or near record highs possible. The record highs for February 15 are 72 at Jackson and 69 at London. Shower chances will increase again Thursday night as the cold front advances south into northern KY. Rainfall amounts Thursday night should range from just under 0.5 inch in the north to around 0.1 inch in the south. These rainfall amounts will not be enough to cause any new flood related issues for Thursday night. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM EST WED FEB 14 2018 Cold front will continue advancing southward on Friday with a band of rainfall progressing southward with the front. Overall forcing is relatively weak or weakening as the front pushes south, so expect rainfall amounts to remain on the low side. However, probabilities for measurable rain are a near certainty. The front should exit south before the cooler air arrives, so no concerns for any wintry precipitation on the back side. This will set up a cool start to Friday as temperatures will settle into the 30s Friday night. A fast moving shortwave trough will then progress across the region on Saturday with widespread rain again developing over the area. Warm air aloft should prevent any wintry precipitation again with all rain expected. Rainfall amounts could reach 0.50-1.00 inches, but rivers should be much lower by this time, so at this time not expecting much of an impact from this rain. The rain should also be short lived. In fact, most of the rain should be exiting by 00z Sunday. With the lack of heavier rainfall over a more targeted area, opted to let the ESF expire off this afternoon. Drier weather will return for Saturday night and Sunday with some sunshine possibly making long awaited return. As the surface ridge slides east by Sunday night a warm front will push northward with a low level jet developing. This may allow for some showers to develop Sunday night into Monday. Much more uncertainty increases into next week, but looks like we could dry out Monday afternoon into Wednesday as a dominate ridge strengthens over the southeastern CONUS. The heavier rain threat continues to look farther west with the 12z model output today. This may keep us drier through the first half of next week, allowing us a much needed break from the rain. However, models differ significantly, on how fast rain chances push back in next week. What is a little more confident is that mild weather will return by the end of the weekend and continue through next week, making it feel a bit like spring out there. We could be threatening more record highs next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 631 PM EST WED FEB 14 2018 The TAF sites are beginning the period in MVFR for CIGs and most sites are low MVFR at that. The soundings would suggest we remain in MVFR and lower to IFR through the night. The latest radar scans do show showers progressing into eastern Kentucky, with some of these showers containing lightning. Overall these will be light to moderate showers, but they could lead to localized drops to IFR VIS. Overall winds will remain light through much of the period, but we we could see some gusts to 20 knots by Thursday afternoon under increasing low level jet. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...DJ

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