Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 232138 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 438 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL. THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD. THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SATURATE. THEN...FROM 0Z TO 8Z...AS PRECIP GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR IS EXPECTED AND DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP A FEW HOURS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE 8Z TO 15Z... AND CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP ALONG AN NW OF A LINE FROM KSME TO KSYM BEFORE 13Z...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ELSEWHERE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JP

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