Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180743 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 343 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 DURING THE NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST RESPECTIVELY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE TROUGH WAS HEADING TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION AND WAS TRIGGERING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT THERE. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEGRADE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW AND WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN AT THE NW PERIPHERY OF ITS INFLUENCE. OUR LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHOW AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE SE WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS BEING MOSTLY CIRRUS TODAY...WILL LOOK FOR ENOUGH INSOLATION FOR MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS. IF THE CLOUDS ARE DENSE ENOUGH...IT COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED. THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY OF WARM DRY AIR IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...IS WHERE THE PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WOULD BE OUR WEATHER PRODUCER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOULD THE MODELS TURN OUT TO BE RIGHT. INITIALLY THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE TWO MODELS QUICKLY CAME INTO AGREEMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THE WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT TO BEGIN THE WEEK. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...NOTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE ARE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND DRY AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM BY WHICH OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN GENERAL...DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND AND CLOUDS WE END UP GETTING. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT COOL THING OFF VERY MUCH AS IT LOOKS TO BE AN ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS AS IT PASSES BY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND 70 EACH DAY. THE AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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