Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190702 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 302 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 302 AM EDT SUN MAR 19 2017 The majority of the short term period should be mild and dry, as a ridge of high pressure settles over the region. Cloud cover will be fairly widespread early this morning, but will slowly erode from southwest to northeast today, as the ridge begins to expand eastward. This clearing trend is then expected to continue through late this afternoon, with mostly clear skies anticipated across the entire area by early this evening. Light winds will prevail through out the period as well, generally out of the north today at less than 5 mph. The winds should shift around to the east and then south late tonight, as an area of low pressure and its associated surface front approach from the north. The light winds and clear conditions tonight will set the stage for fairly well defined ridge and valley temperature differences. Our valleys should easily fall into the upper 20s overnight, setting the stage for a frost event. The ridgetops around the area will also be cold, but with slightly warmer minimum values in the low to mid 30s. Some frost will also be possible on ridgetops, but the most widespread frost should be confined to the deepest and most sheltered valleys. High temperatures today look to be a bit below normal, with max readings ranging from the upper 40s north of the Mountain Parkway to the lower 50s south of the parkway, due to the presence of cloud cover and northerly flow during part of the day. A nice warm up is likely in store for Monday, as southerly winds become more well established and increase in intensity slightly. The anticipated good sunshine and southerly flow should allow temperatures to max out in the lower to mid 60s across the area. Toward the end of the period, Monday afternoon to be exact, there will be rain chances coming back into the picture for eastern Kentucky. However, the latest model data is all suggesting that the trough of low pressure and its surface front will be slowing down a bit compared to earlier model runs, probably due to a slightly strong ridge developing across the region. That being said, decided to slow down the onset of precipitation on Monday by several hours. The new forecast will feature the first precipitation moving into eastern Kentucky between 18 and 19Z, as opposed to late Monday morning as was previously forecast. This precipitation should expand slowly southward Monday afternoon, as a cold front moves southward through the Ohio River Valley. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 421 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017 The long wave pattern continues to look fairly progressive through the middle of next week, before amplifying into next weekend. Overall, the models have trended slower with the evolution of the smaller scale features. Monday through Tuesday, a surface cold front will sag south from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley. This, coupled with passing bouts of mid and upper level support, will result in unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky from later Monday through Tuesday night. The overall best forcing and moisture has been delayed, with Tuesday into Tuesday night now progged with the highest POPs, especially along the Cumberland Valley. Have maintained some slight chances of thunder Monday night, and again on Tuesday, with at least weak instability in place. Drier weather will return on Wednesday and looks to last through Friday, as a deeper trough takes shape across the Rockies and moves into the Plains and eventually into the Mississippi Valley through early next weekend. The trough axis will then approach our area on Saturday, with precipitation chances increasing once again. Temperatures will start out above normal for early next week, before trending cooler for the mid-week, with another freeze possible by Thursday morning. Readings will then moderate to above normal once again into early next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN MAR 19 2017 Conditions were mainly MVFR at TAF issuance, due to a slowly southward moving layer of low level cloud cover. Low level drying had caused LOZ and SME to improve to VFR, but this will likely change during the night, as the clouds eventually build downward again. These low level clouds should remain in place through the early morning hours, with MFVR conditions still expected. Based on the latest model data, conditions should improve to VFR as the clouds break up and then scatter out by early this afternoon. Winds should be light and generally out of the north for most of the period. A few patches of drizzle will be possible along the Virginia border early in the period, but these should be gone by 9 or 10Z this morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.