Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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397 FXUS63 KJKL 232144 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 544 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 544 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 WSR-88D radar continues to show much of the deeper convection reside nearer the TN/VA border this afternoon. Otherwise a few more pin prick showers have developed further north but have generally died out as quick as they come up. The best cluster of storms resides in Letcher and southern Knott county this hour. A outflow is emanating in a arc like fashion from these storms, and could be enough lift to spark additional storms in an area of cloud streets located near by. Given there is no flow aloft or synoptic lifting these outflows and orographic lift will be areas that stand the best chance for convection. Generally thinking that will be around Hal Rogers Parkway and south. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Isolated convection this afternoon has been confined to near the TN border apparently in association with remnant boundary from yesterday`s convection. Also isolated convection being noted in association with higher terrain near the VA border. With steering flow very weak any convection this evening will be very slow moving, so will once again need to monitor for locally heavy rain. Current indications are convection should diminish fairly quickly after sunset. For Sunday, it looks like mean layer moisture may be a little less than today and 850 mb temperatures slightly warmer, thus allowing for slightly higher maximum temperatures. Forecast for Sunday is mostly in the lower 90s with heat indices still around 100. Thus still not reaching heat advisory criteria for our area. Will still highlight the heat index values in the HWO. Any convection on Sunday should have even less coverage than today, but an isolated thunderstorm will still be possible. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Morning runs are showing quite good agreement and continuity with mid/upper level features. The operation gfs/ecmwf solutions do diverge somewhat beyond Thursday but overall trends are consistent. Broad, roughly zonal flow gradually amplifies with time across the CONUS resulting in ridging over the west coast and across the east Atlantic. A mean trough takes shape over the Upper Mid-West and Great Lake Region. Our area will lie on the southern periphery of an active northern stream, with a few weak disturbances and a couple more significant short waves eventually digging out a trough across the eastern CONUS. Consequently, sensible weather will include at least scattered showers and thunderstorms through the bulk of the forecast window. The best chance of rainfall will come early next week as a cold frontal boundary drops southward to the Ohio River by late Monday. This boundary becomes quasi-stationary and will act as a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity through Wednesday. What`s left of the boundary lifts northward by early Thursday. Additional weak disturbances drop into the region from the northwest ahead of a more significant trough taking aim for our area by the following weekend. The loss of mid and upper level ridging combined with daily convection will help keep our high temperatures close to normal for this time of the year, generally in lower to mid 80s. But with dew points hovering around the 70 degree mark, our weather will remain quite muggy. Likewise overnight lows will be warm, running a little above normals in the upper 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Fields of cumulus clouds in the northern part of the forecast area as well as parts of the southeast have resulted in some local MVFR ceilings just below 3k feet early this afternoon. The only TAF site affected has been SYM, though some other airport sites such as PBX also seeing MVFR ceilings. The cloud bases should lift to above 3k by mid afternoon and will go with VFR for the remainder of the afternoon in the TAFS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms still appear most likely near the TN and VA borders from mid afternoon to early evening. Have carried VCTS at SME to account for this possibility but have left out of other TAFs sites. Outside of typical river valleys the fog last night was pretty well correlated to where rain occurred yesterday afternoon and evening. Have low confidence on exactly which TAF sites may be affected by fog tonight into early Sunday. Have based the fog forecast partly on persistence but if more rain occurs later today than expected there will be more fog than currently forecast. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...SBH

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