Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260243 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1043 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK ALL SHIFT...SO NO UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. DID INGEST THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS...PARTICULARLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. SHOULD BE QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME VALLEY FOG ON TAP...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 AS EXPECTED A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE HAVE BEEN BRUSHING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A COOLER NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN VALLEYS. PLAN TO GO WITH A FEW READINGS INTO THE UPPER 50S. SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF TYPICAL FOG FOR THE VALLEYS. STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...LEADING TO THE CONTINUATION OF QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. THIS TIME AROUND...DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY POP UP SHOWERS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD DIP A FEW DEGREES UNDER LOWS TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD SEE BETTER MIXING INTO A DRY LAYER TOMORROW. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MORE LOWS IN THE 50S COME WEDNESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 THE MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN AND MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM WITH A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION BRINGS IT MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE CMC SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND TAKES ITS TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...A DAY AHEAD OF THE ECMWF AND DAMPENING IT QUICKER... SIMILAR TO THE GFS. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A BAND OF ENERGY WILL SINK TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSING OUT OF ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL HELP TO DEPRESS THE HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA. THE PLAIN TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR THE WEEKEND AND ALSO TAP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER PW AIR AND PERHAPS BRING RENEWED CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS OVER THE REGION. FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES ON THURSDAY DUE TO A WAVY FRONT DIPPING DOWN INTO KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO LIFT BACK NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SMALL RISK OF CONVECTION AS IT DEPARTS. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS TROUGH THAT WILL TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND BRING RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW SHOULD PASS TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY AND TAKE ITS TRAILING FRONT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATER IN THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM CREATE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID GIVE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALSO...KEPT IT DRIER A BIT LONGER INTO SATURDAY THAN IMPLIED BY THE ALLBLEND. PER USUAL...DID ADJUST THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE MOST EVIDENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW CLOUDS TO OCCASIONALLY FORM AROUND 5 AND 12K THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE IS DRY ENOUGH THAT ANY FOG FORMATION THAT OCCURS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR RIVER VALLEYS...AND THEREFORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...AR

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