Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 310547 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 WITH A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT OUT AN UPDATE WITH THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND CONSIDERING THE EXTREMELY SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...AND WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...DECIDED TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN THAT. THE QPF FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WAS ALSO CHANGED TO MATCH UP WITH THE NEW POP FORECAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW...ONLY A FEW MEAGER SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN SOME OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THOSE IS REACHING THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE UPDATED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INGESTED THE LATEST OBS INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO FRESHEN THINGS UP A BIT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE OF GEORGIA AND TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE BEING PULLED NNE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT...PULLING MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN TN AND EASTERN KY UNDER SW FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH SOME OF THESE RETURNS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. GIVEN DIURNAL HEATING AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST AS WELL...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WE CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT APPEARS AS THE BEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY. OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS A BIT BENIGN...WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF OUR CWA. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. REGARDLESS OF IF IT RAINS OR NOT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS /AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS/ TO LINGER AROUND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE STILL POINTING AT ENOUGH OF A SURFACE INVERSION FORMING THAT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF VALLEY FOG IN FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE PATCHY AT THIS TIME. IF A LOCATION DOES RECEIVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME BETTER FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY FIZZLE OUT JUST NE OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND STRETCH FROM THE GULF COAST...UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN GENERAL CONTROL AT THE SURFACE...THIS FEATURE WILL WORK WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/LIFT THAT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...THERE IS NO GOOD TEMP GRADIENTS OR FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION...AND THERE IS A GOOD CAP IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...NOT EXPECTING MANY IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINS. AND ONCE AGAIN...AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE REGAINS CONTROL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS POISED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM AT TIMES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BARING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY...WE WILL LIKELY COMPLETE A TWO WEEK STRETCH WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS DRY SPELL...FORECAST HIGHS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE MERCURY LIKELY REACHING AROUND 90 EACH DAY. ON THE FLIPSIDE...THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S EACH NIGHT. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA VERY SPOTTY. ESPECIALLY TAF SITES TO THE EAST SUCH AS JKL AND SJS...WERE FOG SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WHERE AREAS CLEAR OUT TOWARDS DAWN SUCH AS SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z AS THE MORNING INVERSIONS LIFT. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER 3 TO 5 KFT DECKS IN THE SITES AS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LESS AND LESS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WINDS WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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