Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191824 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 224 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 223 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 Freshened up the POPs through the afternoon. Only some isolated activity is now occurring across the far southeast, with the cold front slipping further away into Tennessee. A few weak echoes have also popped up north of I-64, and have included a small window of isolated showers through this afternoon. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 1110 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 Deeper moisture is pushing southeast, with the last of the more intense rain showers exiting far eastern Kentucky in the next hour. The latest HRRR shows a bit more shower activity lingering closer to the surface cold front, which is near the TN/KY border through this afternoon, but more scattered in areal coverage. Thunder chances also look low at this point with the exit of the front, so have removed these through the rest of the day. The upper level trough axis will swing through the Ohio Valley through this afternoon, with perhaps a few showers popping up near and north of the Ohio River. Temperatures still look to eventually recover to the upper 70s, to around 80 degrees. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 609 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 Updated the forecast to remove the pre-first period and to freshen up the hourly forecast grids with the latest obs data. The forecast precipitation chances were left as is, as a cold front will be moving across the area today, thereby leaving open the possibility of new convection developing over the next several hours. The threat for heavy rain continues to diminish, but a few thunderstorms will still have the potential for producing localized heavy rainfall through late this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 The latest model data has all been suggesting a much more progressive pattern over the next 24 hours and less precipitation overall than previously forecast. The latest radar imagery has also clearly been showing a distinct downward trend in the intensity and coverage of ongoing precipitation across eastern Kentucky. Based on the overall trends, decided to adjust the forecast accordingly, with a faster west to east progression of ongoing convection and any new showers and storms that form later this morning as a cold front pushes across the area. In general the new forecast will have precipitation exiting eastern Kentucky several hours earlier than the previous forecast. The potential for heavy rainfall has decreased to the point that the flood watch will be dropped with the 4 am forecast package. That being said, we will continue to closely monitor the ongoing convection for signs of intensification or cell training, especially along and north of I-64 where heavy rainfall occurred yesterday evening. The last lingering rain showers should be exiting eastern Kentucky between 2 and 3Z Tuesday. Warm and dry weather is then expected for Tuesday across the area. Temperatures will likely max out today at slightly cooler than normal values in the upper 70s due to widespread cloud cover and precipitation. A warming trend is on tap for Tuesday, with highs forecast to max out in the lower 80s beneath mostly clear skies. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 Wednesday will continue the couple day dry stretch across eastern Kentucky as high pressure begins to shift east across the Appalachians. Trailing energy will ride southeast down the backside of cyclonic flow extending from an upper low east of Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes. Precipitation will remain north of eastern Kentucky with this wave given the lack of southwesterly return flow north of a stalled front parked from the Gulf Coast to the mid- Atlantic. Rising heights sprawling eastward from the long-lived Four Corners upper high will warm temperatures back into the mid 80s. A more active period will ensue for Thursday through the weekend as northern stream energy traverses lower Canada toward the Great Lakes. Simultaneously, Invest 93L near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will begin to make headway inland. This will send a plume of tropical moisture into the Tennessee and likely Ohio Valleys. A good deal of uncertainty exists with the timing and exact track of this low pressure center as it transitions to an extratropical cyclone. Nonetheless, interaction of this feature along with northern stream energy and an associated cool front will spell shower and thunderstorm chances from the end of the week through the weekend prior to frontal passage. The threat for heavy rain and any widespread flooding will have to be monitored through the week as the tropical picture becomes clearer in the Gulf of Mexico. Near to above normal temperatures look to be in the offing through at least Saturday before arrival of the front brings a cooldown possibly as early as Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 Scattered to broken cumulus generally ranging from 3-5k feet agl will continue across the area through late this afternoon, before dissipating into this evening. A few isolated showers may also dot the area near and north of I-64, as well as far southeastern Kentucky. High pressure will build in tonight, and with west winds going calm, some fog is expected. Some of the low level moisture is mixing out this afternoon, so have not included anything more than IFR/MVFR fog at SME...LOZ...and SJS towards dawn Tuesday morning for now. Once the fog burns off by 13z or so, some scattered cumulus at 6-7k feet agl will likely develop by noon.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.