Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161959 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 359 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 359 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017 Showers continue to push east across eastern Kentucky this afternoon with much of the activity actually showing a slight weakening trend over the past few hours. While a dry wedge is working in from central Kentucky, more showers and storms are starting to move in from the west. However, still quite some distance for this additional activity to travel and it may not make it here to capitalize on present instability. Thus, still expect a gradual decrease in shower coverage heading into the evening hours as the dry wedge works east across the area. A few models show some isolated showers redeveloping late tonight, but not a lot of forcing present except a weak low level jet. Perhaps this would be enough for a few showers to pop up just prior to daybreak. As we head through the day tomorrow, a cold front will push east into the Ohio river valley and bring a line of showers and storms across eastern Kentucky through the evening hours. Models are in pretty good agreement with this activity, so have trended higher with the pops through the evening period. Activity will exit southeast overnight with the front hanging up over the area. However, subsidence behind departing showers/storms will lead very little potential for additional activity, but a few isolated showers would remain possible. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 359 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017 The upper levels will be characterized by multiple long wave troughs suppressing the ridging and upper level high well to the south. The first trough will lightly dig into the Ohio Valley with higher influence toward the Great Lakes. This will help swing a cold front toward the region Friday, but this front becomes diffuse as it progresses east. This could leave a boundary near the region and therefore did keep POPs going mainly in the afternoon in the far southeast. The next wave will move through Saturday but the POPs will stay mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor. After this heights rise and we see a break in the weather for most through Monday. Guidance does suggest a small chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday in the north, but most look to be spared for the eclipse at this time. Models are in decent agreement that we begin to suppress heights and develop NW flow toward the end of the period. This will open the door for waves by Tuesday and Wednesday, and right now this looks to be when we see the overall best coverage through the period.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017 Scattered showers will be seen through the afternoon and early evening hours and could bring some brief reductions in visibility with the heavier downpours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through this evening. A warm front lifting north across the area could bring some lower ceilings late tonight into early Thursday morning, but confidence is low on whether ceilings or fog will dominate. Either way, looking at some aviation concerns late tonight again. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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