Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260630 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 230 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO BETTER ADDRESS THE DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER THE AREA AT AROUND 5K FEET. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL WITH THE GRIDS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. LASTLY...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST OBS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 1 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER THAN WE SAW LAST NIGHT. FORECAST HAS THINGS COVERED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO LET IT RIDE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE TWEAKS...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO BEEF UP THE FOG WORDING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND PULL NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A TASTE OF EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NW PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS WE ARE EXPECTING A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S SHOWING UP. AS A RESULT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AS LOW IF NOT LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S EXPECTED. RECORD LOW AT JACKSON FOR AUGUST 26 IS 58 SO THIS SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AREAS WITH LONGER PERIODS OF RECORD HAVE LOWER RECORDS. THE RECORD AT LONDON IS 46 AND THIS WILL NOT BE IN JEOPARDY. FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES DESPITE NAM HINTING AT SHOWERS CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE AXIS ALONG THIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS IN IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACK FURTHER NORTH OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BUT EXTENDING DOWN THE APPALACHIAN RANGE INTO THE AREA. DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING RETURN FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LAST 3 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. BEING LATE IN THE SEASON...THE SUPER BLEND SUGGESTS NIGHTTIME CONVECTION BUT THE BLOCKING TYPE...OR MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR LOW CONFIDENCE. THOUGH THE SUPER BLEND MIGHT SUGGESTS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. AS WELL...BOTH FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SEEM PRETTY WEAK IN THE FIRST PLACE. SO WILL ERR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE SUPER BLEND. THE RETURNED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING MAX TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL VALUES TO END THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN. THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT MOST OF THE TAF SITES...WITH THE BEST SHOT BEING KSME. FOR THIS...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VIS AND LOW CIGS TOWARD DAWN BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GREIF

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