Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191739 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 139 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1143 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Not a lot going on this morning as a diffuse cold front slowly works southward. Best guess is the front is located somewhere along or just to the south of the Ohio River over northeast Kentucky. While I cannot rule out a shower until this front passes to our south later today, anything that develops should be few and far between and not worth a mention in the forecast. The exception to this will be along the Virginia and Tennessee borders where the best moisture and instability will reside this afternoon. Will maintain a mention of isolated showers/storms there. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Mid to upper level dry air is quickly advancing southeastward into Kentucky as of 7Z, per GOES WV imagery. This will likely cut off any precip chances throughout the morning from northwest to southeast. That being said, still a few very small showers have popped up on radar so decided to keep an isolated chance for a shower through the afternoon. Current position of the cold frontal boundary looks to be INVOF southern IN/OH. This front will continue to push southward throughout the morning and should be through the area by early afternoon (18-21Z). However, cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the KY/VA border this afternoon, nearest the frontal boundary. Post frontal passage, winds shift to the north and northwest, helping to usher in drier air/lower dew points, making conditions more comfortable. High pressure also builds into the area, gradually clearing the cloud cover. That being said, at least a small ridge valley temperature split is anticipated Tuesday night depending on the cloud cover remaining. Wednesday will be dry, sunny, and warm with high pressure overhead. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 416 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 The stage for the long term forecast is set by an extensive ridge bearing down on the majority of the middle United States, the effects of which will likely be felt throughout the next week. Furthermore, this ridge will bring about one of the warmer air masses we have felt so far this year. This heat in combination with dew points in the mid 60s to upper 70s may present potentially dangerous heat indices throughout the long term. Wednesday night through Saturday will be characterized by the eastward expansion of the upper level ridge into the Ohio River Valley as temperatures and dew points begin their steady rise through the weekend. Although instability does begin to increase through the day on Saturday, the lack of deep layer moisture, warm air aloft, and the lack of substantial upper level support will likely preclude thunderstorm development. Consequently, PoPs were kept at slight chances, generally on the lower end of the blended guidance. The end of the period will provide better chances of precipitation as the ridge begins a slow retreat to the west and a front begins to fall into the Ohio Valley by Monday. Thankfully, a slightly cooler air mass will begin to provide some relief from the sweltering heat after the frontal passage by early next week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 A weak cold front will drop south through the area this afternoon/evening bringing a slightly drier airmass. A brief shower/storm is possible along the Tennessee and Virginia border this afternoon before the front exits, but will not include any mention in TAFs. Fog will then be the primary concern overnight into Wednesday morning. The drier airmass seeping in complicates things and confidence on exactly how the visibility forecast will play out is low. Will indicate a period of IFR conditions at LOZ and SME, and MVFR at JKL. Will keep SYM and SJS VFR due to better infiltration of drier air at those locations.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...ABE SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GOUDEAU/GEOGERIAN AVIATION...ABE

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