Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300010 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 810 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE REMAINS OF AN EARLIER MCS IS FADING OUT THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS THE CORE OF IT SETTLES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS CLUSTER HAVE OVERSPREAD EAST KENTUCKY AND SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR RATHER UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE STATE. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND ALONG WITH ADDING IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR T/TD/WIND AS WELL AS THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. IN ADDITION...A FRESH SET OF ZONES AND AN UPDATED HWO HAS BEEN ISSUED. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEAR TERM. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...WILL EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO OUR AREA AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE MCS WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS US FROM THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL KICK OFF ADDITION RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LINGER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH OUT THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO NEARLY STALL OVER THE REGION...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND AROUND 60 TOMORROW NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN AS TWIN UPPER LOWS OPEN UP AND SLIP EAST. THE FIRST OF THESE MOVES BY KENTUCKY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT ONE CATCHES UP AND PRESSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TAKES PLACE AS THE PATTERN GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO ONE FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. THE GFS AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...CANADIAN ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE NET RESULT WILL BE SIMILAR WITH RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY...OR JUST TO THE NORTH. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER KENTUCKY WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AT MIDWEEK. FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE ECMWF STARTS TO CARVE OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE EASTERLY WITH ITS OPEN TROUGH...INSTEAD FOCUSING ON ITS LOW ANOMALY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF PATTERN SEEMS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO HAVE FAVORED ITS SOLUTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE INSTABILITY WANES WITH FROPA. DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN OHIO. THIS ALONG WITH A GOOD WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. THIS CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND WX STORY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ON PAST THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART IT APPEARS THAT EAST KENTUCKY WILL THEN BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE RATHER CHILLY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH LOWER 40S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. MADE ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH AND LOWS FROM THE CR INIT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTANT LACK OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE. DID ALSO MAKE SOME FINE TUNE TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST... MAINLY TO HEDGE TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION AND WETTER THAN WHAT THE GFS SUGGESTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN...WITH MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN BY 18Z SATURDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO VCTS AND CB HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FAVORING THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GREIF

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