Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 170029 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 729 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 729 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 A few showers will linger for the next hour or so across far southeastern Kentucky, otherwise, cooler air will gradually work in overnight. Have adjusted the lows a bit based on some of the higher resolution model guidance, which suggest clouds will be hanging on. As such, went a tad warmer on the overnight lows, but still lower 30s north of I-64, to near 40 degrees in the valleys bordering Tennessee and Virgina. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 342 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 Cold front is now exiting to our south with the upper level support for the rain earlier today now exiting as well. This has allowed showers to weaken and dissipate from the north. Rain should be done for most areas over the next 1 to 2 hours with just a few showers lingering in southeast Kentucky. Colder air is advecting into the region with temperatures falling through the 40s. While models are generally supportive of some partial clearing, current satellite trends seem to be less supportive. Cloud cover is still firmly entrenched across the area and it may be hard to erode as low level winds veer around to the northeast tonight. Thus, going to go more robust with the sky cover and that should help keep lows in the low to mid 30s tonight. A shortwave trough will bring another round of rain back into eastern Kentucky after dawn on Saturday. With the colder air already in place, we could see a brief shot of light snow or sleet early, before everything transitions to rain. Rainfall could be locally heavy in the southeast with up to or just over an inch possible. With the rain and saturated ground, flood watch will continue for southeast Kentucky. The rain will come to an end by 8 pm. Some drizzle could linger well into Saturday night, but the more substantial precipitation will be over. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 415 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 Surface high pressure and shortwave mid level ridging will briefly work across the area to start the period with an upper level ridge in place southeast of Bermuda with another over parts of the eastern Pacific with rather zonal flow across the northern Conus at that point. However, an upper level low is expected to be working across the Pacific northwest to begin the period and is expected to dig south across the west before slowly moving east from the Rockies and to the Plains near the end of the period. From the early to middle part of next week, heights are expected to rise across the southeast with upper ridging becoming centered between Bermuda and the southeast US Coast. The ridge is expected to dampen late in the period. At the surface, high pressure will shift east of the area from Sunday into Monday while low pressure tracks from the Plains to Ontario with a baroclinic zone to its south slowing down and remaining in place generally from Quebec and Ontario across the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. As the pattern amplifies, a warm front will lift north through the region as well from Sunday night into Monday with PW increasing back to near or above 1 inch and then likely remaining near 1 inch for most of the period across east KY. Downstream of the trough moving through the west, several weaker shortwaves should lead to a series of waves of low pressure moving along this frontal zone. Some moderate rainfall amounts are possible with the warm front on Sunday nigh into Monday with the focus for heavier rainfall then remaining closer to the boundary through the middle of the week. With the region in the warm sector with southerly flow persisting and anomalous heights over the area temperatures will persist through at least midweek. MEX MOS is forecasting a record high temperature not only for the 20th on Tuesday but for the month as well. The ECMWF MOS is also forecasting a record high for the day on Tuesday as well. As the frontal zone moves into the area at midweek and then slows down over or south of the area and southwest flow remaining the wet pattern will continue from midweek through the end of the period. Near moist adiabatic lapse rates, especially aloft may support some embedded thunder around midweek on Wed into Wed night. If the boundary were to stall across the region some heavy amounts would be possible and lead to flooding concerns. However, confidence in heavier amounts over East and southeast KY is low, but the potential will continue to be monitored for late in the period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 729 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 MVFR clouds will hang on across the area through most of the night, before temporarily breaking up towards dawn Saturday. Clouds will then gradually sink to IFR or lower once again thereafter, as another round of rain moves in from the southwest during the day on Saturday. Northwest winds of around 10 kts, will gradually diminish and become more variable late tonight into Saturday.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for KYZ080-084>088-110-113-115>120. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.