Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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243 FXUS63 KJKL 171900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 THE HRRR MODEL HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AFTERNOONS SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BULK OF CURRENT ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN KEEPING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. THEREFORE...THE HRRR SOLUTION WAS USED TO COMPOSE THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AFTER 12Z...THE CONSALL SOLUTION WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD INTO AND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 0Z OR SO. AFTER THAT...ONCE THE SUN IS DOWN AND LOSS OF HEATING OCCURS...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DROP OFF IN COVERAGE PRETTY QUICKLY. AFTER HIGH RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE FORECAST TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY...BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PEAK OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN...DURING PEAK HEATING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...REMAINING IN STEP WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PUMPING WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER OUR REGION...BUT DIFFER MORE ON DETAILS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. IN GENERAL ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN UNTIL THE LAST 48 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED WHERE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF WEST COAST CUT OFF LOW. AT THE SURFACE A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO THE HEART OF THE CONUS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT...NOSING ITS WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT WE CAN EXPECT DRY...PLEASANTLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED. ALOFT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE APPEAR TO RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SECOND LESS IMPRESSIVE DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEK...DY6 FRI. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF PRODUCE CONSIDERABLY MORE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN EITHER THE 0Z OR 12Z GFS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRENDS TO HELP WITH PREFERENCE OF SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE RELIED STRONGLY ON MODEL BLENDS CONSIDERING THE MURKY DETAILS WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER. INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL MEAN A GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPS...INTO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. BY 18 OR 19Z WE SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WITH EACH OF THE TAF SITES SEEING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHENEVER A SHOWER OR STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS A TAF SITE. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 13Z MONDAY...BUT NONE OF THIS SHOULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR

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