Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171155 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 755 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 740 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 Updated the grids to tweak them toward the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 06z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the southeast of Kentucky with broad low pressure to the northwest. Between these systems, southwest flow continues to support a mild air mass over the state along with above normal dewpoints, for this time of year. Despite the dewpoints running in the middle 50s for most places, mostly clear skies and light south/southwest winds have set up another ridge to valley temperature split through eastern Kentucky this night. Thanks to good radiational cooling going on in the valleys readings have fallen into the low to mid 50s there while ridges and more open areas are holding in the lower to middle 60s. Do anticipate fog in the deeper valleys and along the rivers through dawn. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term. They all depict ridging building east and northeast from the western Gulf Coast. This will bring rising heights to eastern Kentucky through Tuesday while the faster mid level flow remains just to the north of the area and keep the bulk of the energy bypassing the JKL CWA. Given the good model agreement have favored a general blend of the near term higher resolution data as well as a healthy dose of persistence. Sensible weather will feature an extension of the warm and dry weather we have seen since the end of last week. The high off to the southeast will support near record high temperatures today and Tuesday with low to mid 80s expected. Mostly sunny skies and good mixing will lead to a few higher afternoon wind gusts, but for most places winds will be around 10 mph from the southwest today and between 10 and 15 mph on Tuesday - also supporting well above normal temperatures. For tonight, anticipate a similar situation as the past couple of nights with a moderate ridge to valley temperature split and river valley fog developing during the early morning hours - dissipating shortly after sunrise. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend models as the starting point for most weather elements. Did make some adjustments, particularly for temps to hit warmer daytime highs and better define the ridge/valley differences at night. PoPs were again near zero and kept that way through Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 Models are starting to converge on a solution with the cold front passage towards the end of the week, so forecast confidence is increasing for the late week period. Strong ridging will reside over the area through Wednesday, keeping the mild and dry conditions in place and providing 2 more days of potential record highs. It looks now that a cold front will move through Kentucky late Wednesday night through Thursday evening with a good chance of rain for the area. Any rainfall would be very beneficial and models seem in reasonable agreement on producing a quarter to a half inch of rainfall with the frontal passage. It now looks like the front will be on the way out on Friday with dry conditions returning for the weekend. In fact, a shortwave ridge will move overhead on Saturday and could spell a pleasant fall weekend. The mornings could be a bit chilly, with lows possibly dipping into the 30s. Not out of the question we could see some frost at some point next weekend, but models have been a bit inconsistent on temperatures, so will hold off on mentioning any frost for now. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 Though some mid and high level clouds will be present, at times, through the period VFR conditions will prevail. Some river valley fog can be expected early this morning and again late tonight but this is not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Winds may become gusty this afternoon, particularly at SYM, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a low pressure system moving through the Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, winds will be generally 10 KT or less out of the south to southwest during the daylight hours, else light.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.