Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010854 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WAS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. THERE HAS BEEN TRAINING OF CELLS...AND HYDRO PROBLEMS WERE STARTING TO CROP UP. HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD BE SEEING PRECIP TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND AT THIS POINT WILL HANDLE PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS/WARNINGS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TODAY...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. THE EXISTING PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A TIME TODAY. HEATING WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES GO UP...THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STILL SOME MARGINAL SHEAR LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DWINDLE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OH AND INTO PA TONIGHT...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO KY. IT WILL STALL AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WERE BRINGING LOCALIZED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WERE STILL VFR. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PRECIP TAPERS OFF AND VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 13Z. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION/UNCERTAINTY IS INITIATION OF CONVECTION AND THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...HAL/KAS AVIATION...HAL

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