Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020615 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 215 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT A BIT MORE OF A RIDGE AND VALLEY SPLIT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MID LEVEL STRATOCU SHOWING UP IN OBS TO THE NORTH OF JKL. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FOG LATER TONIGHT... BUT STILL RETAINED THE IDEA OF SOME DENSE PATCHES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN. THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT BUT MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AGAIN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE FROM THE PLAINS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS DAWN ON FRIDAY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER LATE IN THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH IN ALL REALITY THIS WILL LIKELY JUST BE SHOWERS AS AXIS OF BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR WEST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOG FREE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED... AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BIG NEWS WILL BE A SURGE OF VERY COOL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS DRAMATICALLY. 8H TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST HIGH IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY BEING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON SKY CONDITION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROST WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS THE MID 30S IN SOME SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAIN 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR SOUTH...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE FLOW WILL RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE FOG MAY IMPACT THE LOWER ELEVATION TAF SITES...SUCH AS SME AND LOZ...TOWARDS DAWN. IN FACT...LOZ ALREADY IS SHOWING MVFR FOG DESPITE A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT SPREAD. EXPECT THEM TO BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR JKL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...THOUGH A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS...AROUND 4K FEET...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM FRONT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE WITH LLWS A POTENTIAL ISSUE FROM 06 TO 12Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AT NEAR 10 KTS LATER THAT EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GREIF

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